The Watchtower Society and the End of the World

Alan Feuerbacher

Index:

Part 1: Why So Many False Alarms?

Overview:

Introduction

The Watchtower Society demands high standards from religious organizations and sometimes takes them to task when they do not live up them. The Catholic Church has come in for its share of criticism, and in the August 22, 1984 Awake! the Society responded to criticism from one reader who said that they took "cheap shots" at the Church. On page 28 the Society editorially commented:

The Catholic Church occupies a very significant position in the world and claims to be the way of salvation for hundreds of millions of people. Any organization that assumes that position should be willing to submit to scrutiny and criticism. All who criticize have the obligation to be truthful in presenting the facts and fair and objective in assessing such.

The January 15, 1974 Watchtower article "Can You Be True to God, Yet Hide the Facts?" stated the Society's position on religious error much more forcefully, on page 35:

What results when a lie is let go unchallenged? Does not silence help the lie to pass as truth, to have freer sway to influence many, perhaps to their serious harm?....

When persons are in great danger from a source that they do not suspect or are being misled by those they consider their friends, is it an unkindness to warn them? They may prefer not to believe the warning. They may even resent it. But does that free one from the moral responsibility to give that warning?

Jehovah's Witnesses under the leadership of the Watchtower Society have made many predictions about the "end of the world." Not one has been fulfilled. Many have said that these predictions, presumably made in the name of God, show the Watchtower Society is a false prophet and should be avoided according to the prescription of Deuteronomy 18:20-22. This essay examines the question in the spirit expressed by the above two quotations.

The March 22, 1993 Awake! contains three articles on the topic "The World's End -- How Near?", with the apparent purpose of answering the Society's critics. The series makes a valiant effort to show that, in spite of their false predictions, Jehovah's Witnesses are not false prophets.

However, the articles appear to have been written by someone with little knowledge of the history of Jehovah's Witnesses. We will examine the articles point by point to show why. Commentary may be found immediately after quotations from the Awake! articles; alternatively, examples that contrast with statements by Awake! may be shown to the right of them. Boldface type appearing within quotations has been added for emphasis in every case except the March 22 Awake!, where it appears in the original.

The Boy Who Cried Wolf

The first article is entitled "Why So Many False Alarms?" Beginning on page 3 it says:

The story is told of a boy who watched the sheep of the villagers. To stir up a bit of excitement, one day he cried out, "Wolf! Wolf!" when there was no wolf. The villagers rushed out with clubs to drive off the wolf, only to find that there was none. It was such great fun that later on the boy repeated his cry. Again the villagers rushed out with their clubs, only to discover that it was another false alarm. After that a wolf did come, and the boy sounded the warning, "Wolf! Wolf!" but the villagers dismissed his cry as another false alarm. They had been fooled too often.

So it has become with those who proclaim the end of the world. Down through the centuries since Jesus' day, so many unfulfilled predictions have been made that many no longer take them seriously.

This is a very true observation. But Jehovah's Witnesses fit this illustration more perfectly than those the article proceeds to identify because they, like the shepherd boy, have so many times cried "Wolf" that they cannot be taken seriously. As early as 1876 Charles Taze Russell1 predicted that in 1878 true Christians would be "brought home" to Christ. In 1876 he also predicted2 that the "Gentile times" would end in 1914, which year would see the setting up of God's Kingdom in the earth. Not later than 1914 a host of other significant events would occur. When nothing happened in accord with Russell's predictions, the Watchtower Society in the 1920s, under J. F. Rutherford, spiritualized the fulfillment of some of the predictions in such a way that no one could possibly dispute they had occurred, and it abandoned the rest. Beginning in 1914 the Society also predicted World War I would end by turning into Armageddon by 1918. When that prediction failed the Society said that 1925 would bring the end. J. F. Rutherford, in his later writings and public talks, predicted World War II would be transformed into Armageddon, so that Jehovah's Witnesses should put off marrying, and raising children. In 1966 Fred Franz wrote a book that emphasized that six thousand years of human history would end in 19753 and this would be an extremely significant date in human history. Enough had been learned not to make explicit predictions in print, but the message got through and virtually all Jehovah's Witnesses expected the "end of the system of things" not later than 1975.

It is fascinating to watch newer Jehovah's Witnesses react when they learn that so many false predictions were made. When they first learn the unique doctrines of Jehovah's Witnesses they are very pleased, but they are not informed of the, shall we say, dirt under the carpet. Many who have become Witnesses since 1975, for example, are unaware of the attitude Jehovah's Witnesses had in the decade prior to 1975. Most who were Witnesses before then seldom speak of it, and it is hardly ever mentioned in Watchtower publications. Newer ones often first learn about the problem of 1975 when they are challenged by an outsider. The first impulse is to deny that "the end of the world" was ever promoted, but honest ones eventually find the Society really did do everything short of flat out predicting 1975 as the end of the world. In 1980 the Society apologized in print,4 but this is not common knowledge among Jehovah's Witnesses today. The Society's latest history book, Jehovah's Witnesses -- Proclaimers of God's Kingdom, describes the Society's predictions this way: "Other statements were published on this subject, and some were likely more definite than advisable." (p. 104)

Next the Awake! article lists a few failed predictions:

Gregory I, pope from 590 to 604 C.E., in a letter to a European monarch, said: "We also wish Your Majesty to know, as we have learned from the words of Almighty God in Holy Scriptures, that the end of the present world is already near and that the unending Kingdom of the Saints is approaching."

In the 16th century, Martin Luther, progenitor of the Lutheran Church, predicted that the end was imminent. According to one authority, he stated: "For my part, I am sure that the day of judgment is just around the corner."

The Watchtower Society has been saying "Armageddon is just around the corner" since 1914. Before 1914, C. T. Russell said Armageddon would be finished not later than 1914, and in fact it had started in 1874! The Society then predicted the end would come in 1915, 1918, 1920, 1925, the 1940s, and 1975. Let us see if Awake! mentions any of these in its list of those who made false predictions. The article continues:

Concerning one of the first Baptist groups, it is reported: "The Anabaptists of the early Sixteenth Century believed that the Millennium would occur in 1533."

"Edwin Sandys (1519-1588), Archbishop of York and Primate of England... says,... 'Let us be assured that this coming of the Lord is near.'"

William Miller, generally credited with founding the Adventist Church, is quoted as saying: "I am fully convinced that sometime between March 21, 1843, and March 21, 1844, according to the Jewish mode of computation of time, Christ will come.

William Miller is possibly more the spiritual founder of Jehovah's Witnesses than even C. T. Russell. After the "Great Disappointment" of 1844 Miller gave up on end-of-the-world predictions, but many of those who had followed him carried on. One such was George Storrs, who began publishing a magazine called The Bible Examiner about 1843, in which he promoted many of the doctrines he learned from Miller. Russell got many of his own beliefs from Storrs and his magazine. Beginning about 1869 N. H. Barbour became heavily influenced by some of the Millerite groups. Their teaching formed the basis of his Bible chronology, which Russell later adopted. All the groups that descended from William Miller's original, from Seventh Day Adventists to Jehovah's Witnesses, have persisted in prophetic speculation, and their predictions have invariably failed.

An Illustration on Telling the Truth

Before we move on, let us note an illustration of how people can tell lies by telling the truth. Marvin L. Lubenow is a professor of Bible and apologetics at Christian Heritage College in El Cajon, California. His book Bones of Contention takes evolutionists to task for not telling the full truth about certain human-like fossils:

It is possible to lie by telling the truth. It is done often. Suppose a man owes you one hundred dollars. Because you need the money, you call him to find out when he can pay you. His wife answers the phone and tells you that he is out. You take that to mean that he is unavailable. You don't know that he is standing just outside the front door of his house so that his wife can "honestly" say that he is "out." She justifies herself in that she technically told the truth. But she really lied, because she intended that you would think that "out" meant "unavailable." She lied by telling the truth. [Marvin L. Lubenow, Bones of Contention, Baker Book House, Grand Rapids, Michigan, 1992 pp. 103-4]

As will become clear in the rest of this essay, the Watchtower Society is a master of this art.

What Is A False Prophet?

Awake! continues on page 3:

Does the failure of such predictions to come true convict as false prophets those who made them, within the meaning of Deuteronomy 18:20-22? That text reads: "The prophet who presumes to speak in my name a word that I have not commanded him to speak or who speaks in the name of other gods, that prophet must die. And in case you should say in your heart: 'How shall we know the word that Jehovah has not spoken?' when the prophet speaks in the name of Jehovah and the word does not occur or come true, that is the word that Jehovah did not speak."

The quotation from Deuteronomy makes very clear that it is a prophet who especially needs to watch out that what he says is really Jehovah's word. It is certainly true, as Awake! implies, that not everyone who makes predictions should be called a prophet.

What is prophecy and what is a prophet? The Watchtower Society has published clear definitions. A "prophecy", according to Vol 2. of Insight on the Scriptures, pages 690-1, is:

An inspired message; a revelation of divine will and purpose or the proclamation thereof. Prophecy may be an inspired moral teaching, an expression of a divine command or judgment, or a declaration of something to come. As shown under PROPHET, prediction, or foretelling, is not the basic thought conveyed by the root verbs in the original languages.... yet it forms an outstanding feature of Bible prophecy.... The Source of all true prophecy is Jehovah God.

It should be noted that a prophecy can be originated by men or even be inspired by demons, according to the Bible. A true prophet, according to Vol 2. of Insight on the Scriptures, page 694, is:

One through whom divine will and purpose are made known.

Note that these definitions do not require a prophet to claim inspiration. Someone who is a false prophet is certainly not inspired, but he is still a prophet. He is the object of condemnation of Deuteronomy 18. The key points are: (1) anyone claiming to speak for God is a prophet, and (2) such a prophet can be true or false. Claiming that a false prophet is not 'really' a prophet is equivalent to claiming there is no such thing as a false prophet, contrary to what Jehovah himself says. Insight also explains how a true prophet can be distinguished from a false one:

The three essentials for establishing the credentials of a true prophet, as given through Moses, were: The true prophet would speak in Jehovah's name; the things foretold would come to pass (De 18:20-22); and his prophesying must promote true worship, being in harmony with God's revealed word and commandments (De 13:1-4).

So there are three tests a true prophet must pass. Failure to pass even one makes him a false prophet. In summary, if someone claims to be a prophet, i.e., to speak for God, but his words are not in harmony with the Bible, or if he makes predictions in God's name and his predictions fail, then he is a false prophet. It's really a rather simple concept, wouldn't you say?

One of the best descriptions of these ideas is found in the May 15, 1930 Watch Tower, pages 153-5, which describes the true prophet and the false prophet:

A prophet is a person who professes to proclaim a message from Jehovah God. The Bible reveals the fact that there are both true and false prophets. The true prophet is one who always speaks as God's mouthpiece. His message is the truth, and is designed to be a blessing to his hearers. He is never boastful, and always gives God the credit for the message which he proclaims, and therefore always has the divine approval. A false prophet is a person who claims to be a representative of Jehovah and to speak in his name and to proclaim his message but is in fact the mouthpiece of Satan. A false prophet never has Jehovah's approval, and his message is always intended to deceive the people and to draw them away from God and a study of his Word.

A false prophet speaks that which is contrary to God's will; he sneers at, contradicts and denies the message of God's true prophets. It matters not whether he proclaims his message with deliberate, willful and malicious intent to deceive, or whether he is the blinded and deluded dupe of Satan and hence unwittingly used of him. In either case he is a false prophet....

Since the Bible was completed, and "inspiration" is no longer necessary, a true prophet is one who is faithfully proclaiming what is written in the Bible.... But it may be asked, How are we to know whether one is a true or a false prophet? There are at least three ways by which we can positively decide: (1) If he is a true prophet, his message will come to pass exactly as prophesied. If he is a false prophet, his prophecy will fail to come to pass.... The difference between a true and a false prophet is that the one is speaking the word of the Lord and the other is speaking his own dreams and guesses.... The true prophet of God today will be telling forth what the Bible teaches, and those things that the Bible tells us are soon to come to pass. He will not be sounding forth man-made theories or guesses, either his own or those of others.... In the New Testament, and in our day, the word "prophet" has a thought similar to that of our word "teacher," in the sense of a public expounder. Hence when the term "false prophet" is used, we shall get the correct thought if we think of a false teacher.

So The Watch Tower said that if anyone claims to represent God and speak in his name and proclaim his message and the prophecies fail, he is a false prophet. He will only have been sounding forth man-made theories or guesses. Conversely, anyone who sounds forth man-made theories or guesses in God's name is a false teacher and therefore a false prophet.

Note this clearly: The Watch Tower pointedly said that "inspiration is no longer necessary." Therefore, according to the Society, inspiration -- or the claim of inspiration -- is not a criterion for determining if one who claims to be a prophet is a true one or a false one. Therefore, a prophet is anyone who claims to speak in God's name.

Awake!, October 8, 1968, on page 23, in speaking about the Society's contention that the Bible indicates we are living in the last days, emphasized that those who falsely predicted the end of the world were false prophets:

Still some persons may say: "How can you be sure? Maybe it is later than many people think. But maybe it is not as late as some persons claim. People have been mistaken about these prophecies before.".... True, there have been those in times past who predicted an "end to the world," even announcing a specific date.... Yet, nothing happened. The "end" did not come. They were guilty of false prophesying. Why? What was missing?

Compare these statements with those above from the May 15, 1930 Watch Tower, and then compare them with what the Society said was going to occur in 1914 and 1925. These predictions are discussed in more detail later in this essay. Especially note that the 1968 Awake! said those who predicted an end to the world, even announcing a specific date, and whose predictions failed, were false prophets by virtue of their false predictions. The 1968 Awake! continued:

Missing was the full measure of evidence required in fulfillment of Bible prophecy. Missing from such people were God's truths and the evidence that he was guiding and using them.

So the fact that the predictions failed was proof God was not guiding or using them.

Returning to the March 22, 1993 Awake!, the next paragraph observes that those who make false predictions are not necessarily false prophets. This is to set the stage for the claim that Jehovah's Witnesses' false predictions do not make them false prophets. Compare the statements with those from the above 1930 Watch Tower and from Paradise Restored to Mankind -- By Theocracy, quoted on the right below. Awake! continues on page 3:

There are some who make spectacular predictions of the world's end to grab attention and a following, but others are sincerely convinced that their proclamations are true. They are voicing expectations based on their own interpretation of some scripture text or physical event. They do not claim that their predictions are direct revelations from Jehovah and that in this sense they are prophesying in Jehovah's name. Hence, in such cases, when their words do not come true, they should not be viewed as false prophets such as those warned against at Deuteronomy 18:20-22. In their human fallibility, they misinterpreted matters. [g93 3/22 3, 4]

The true prophet of God today will be telling forth what the Bible teaches, and those things that the Bible tells us are soon to come to pass. He will not be sounding forth man- made theories or guesses, either his own or those of others. [w30 5/15 153-5]

Jehovah, the God of the true prophets, will put all false prophets to shame either by not fulfilling the false prediction of such self-assuming prophets or by having His own prophecies fulfilled in a way opposite to that predicted by the false prophets. False prophets will try to hide their reason for feeling shame by denying who they really are. [Paradise Restored, 1972, pp. 353-4]

This description, of course, is meant to exclude the leaders of Jehovah's Witnesses from the ranks of false prophets. It is true that some who make predictions of the end of the world do not claim Jehovah has directly "inspired" them. It would be very surprising if they did claim to be inspired, as this would be claiming the same authority as Jehovah or as the Bible itself. Few are brazen enough to do this openly, but most claim to have some sort of guidance from God. But as we have seen, The Watch Tower has stated that "inspiration" does not exist today, and so Awake!'s point is a red herring.

Awake! tries to make it appear that only true prophets can 'really' prophesy in Jehovah's name. That is why it phrases its argument in terms of "direct revelations from Jehovah," "that in this sense they are prophesying in Jehovah's name." But this so weakens the requirements that only those who explicitly say the words "I am inspired by God to make these predictions" could possibly be false prophets, and in practice virtually eliminates the existence of such. It also contradicts the 1930 Watch Tower's statements quoted above.

Has the Watchtower Society Ever Claimed Inspiration?

This discussion leads to two important questions: has the Watchtower Society ever claimed to be a prophet, and has it ever claimed to be inspired? We shall demonstrate that the answer to both questions is, Yes.

Deuteronomy says that a person is a false prophet if he claims to speak in God's name and his predictions fail. It does not say he has to claim "inspiration." The Society claims to speak in God's name and to be a prophet, and has explicitly said so many times. It has constantly emphasized that it has been the "channel of communication" between God and man in the late-19th and 20th centuries. Here are a few examples.

In the Olin Moyle court case of 1943, Fred Franz said under oath that no man is the editor of The Watchtower. Who, then, is the editor?

Q. Who subsequently became the Editor of the magazine, the main editor of the "Watch Tower" magazine?

A. In 1931, October 15th, as I recall, the "Watch Tower" discontinued publishing the names of any editorial committee on the second page.

The Court. He asked you who became the editor.

The Witness. And it said --

The Court. Who became the editor?

Q. Who became the editor when this was discontinued?

A. Jehovah God.

In case the reader should object that this was only Franz's opinion and therefore of little weight, it should be noted that in 1943, Franz was for all practical purposes himself the editor of The Watchtower. He was the head theologian of the Watchtower Society and Nathan Knorr generally rubber stamped his writings. Governing Body member Karl Klein often called him the "oracle of the organization."

Here are a few examples where the Society explicitly calls itself a prophet:

Whom has God actually used as his prophet?.... Jehovah's witnesses. -- The Watchtower, January 15, 1959, pp. 40-1.

As Jehovah revealed his truths by means of the first-century Christian congregation so he does today by means of the present-day Christian congregation. Through this agency he is having carried out prophesying on an intensified and unparalleled scale. -- The Watchtower, June 15, 1964, p. 365.

There is a real need today for someone to speak as a true representative of God.... was there any group on whom Jehovah would be willing to bestow the commission to speak as a "prophet" in His name, as was done toward Ezekiel...? It is of importance to every individual on earth to identify the group that Jehovah has commissioned as his "servant" or messenger. -- The Watchtower, March 15, 1972, pp. 186, 189, 190.

The follow-on article in the next issue was entitled "They shall know that A Prophet Was Among Them," and it said:

A third way of coming to know Jehovah God is through his representatives. In ancient times he sent prophets as his special messengers.... So, does Jehovah have a prophet to help them, to warn them of dangers and to declare things to come? These questions can be answered in the affirmative. Who is this prophet?.... This "prophet" was not one man, but was a body of men and women. It was the small group of footstep followers of Jesus Christ, known at that time as International Bible Students. Today they are known as Jehovah's Christian witnesses.... Of course, it is easy to say that this group acts as a "prophet" of God. It is another thing to prove it. The only way that this can be done is to review the record. What does it show?.... Thus this group of anointed followers of Jesus Christ, doing a work in Christendom paralleling Ezekiel's work among the Jews, were manifestly the modern-day Ezekiel, the "prophet" commissioned by Jehovah to declare the good news of God's Messianic kingdom and to give warning to Christendom.... Jehovah's witnesses today make their declaration of the good news of the Kingdom under angelic direction and support.... And since no word or work of Jehovah can fail, for he is God Almighty, the nations will see the fulfillment of what these witnesses say as directed from heaven. -- The Watchtower, April 1, 1972, pp. 197, 198, 200.

Who, then, are the group of persons who, toward the beginning of this "time of the end," were commissioned to serve as the mouthpiece and active agent of Jehovah?.... Whom could the real "chariot" of Jehovah's organization roll up to and confront that He might bestow upon this qualified one the commission to speak as a prophet in the name of Jehovah?.... Jehovah has found and commissioned his modern-day "Ezekiel." It is a composite Ezekiel. It is composed of those dedicated, baptized proclaimers of God's kingdom, who have been anointed with His spirit for their work.... Jehovah commissioned this dedicated, baptized, anointed class of servants to speak to all the nations in His name.... So it was with the anointed, dedicated witnesses of Jehovah back there in the year 1919 C.E. The facts from then on down to this date prove that they received their ordination and appointment and commission for their work in this "time of the end" from Jehovah himself. -- The Nations Shall Know That I Am Jehovah, 1971, pp. 58, 59, 61, 66, 67.

These faithful anointed Christians.... had to prophesy.... announcing Jehovah's judgments.... proclaiming his day of vengeance.... [they] had to preach.... -- Revelation -- Its Grand Climax At Hand!, p. 164.

Consider, too, the fact that Jehovah's organization alone, in all the earth, is directed by God's holy spirit or active force. Only this organization functions for Jehovah's purpose and to his praise. To it alone God's Sacred Word, the Bible, is not a sealed book.... How very much true Christians appreciate associating with the only organization on earth that understands the 'deep things of God.'.... How much we should appreciate God's earthly organization.... -- The Watchtower, July 1, 1973, p. 402.

Compare the claims expressed in the last quotation with those the Society attributes to the Catholic Church, on page 1 of this essay.

The August 1, 1971 Watchtower applied Amos 3:7 to Jehovah's Witnesses. On pages 466-8 it said:

There is an additional way, among others, to determine whom Jehovah is using today. Bible prophecy, history written in advance, comes from God.... He can foresee future conditions with total accuracy and keep his servants abreast of them.... These things Jehovah has made known to those who obey him as ruler: "The Sovereign Lord Jehovah will not do a thing unless he has revealed his confidential matter to his servants the prophets." In this century who has been correctly informed about the future? the clergy? the political leaders? the economic heads? Or has it been the witnesses of Jehovah?....

Previously we examined some of the main identifying marks, or the fruitage, that those who know the truth about God must bear. We have seen that Jehovah's witnesses do bear those identifying marks. Then we should expect them to have God's prophetic truths. Does the evidence show this? Let us examine what Jehovah's witnesses have been saying down through the years.... Who has told the truth? Who today deserve our confidence as they tell of events to come in the very near future?....

How could Jehovah's witnesses have known so far in advance what world leaders themselves did not know? Only by God's holy spirit making such prophetic truths known to them.

The fact that the Watchtower Society applies Amos 3:7 to itself shows that its leaders say Jehovah's Witnesses are prophets.

The book Holy Spirit -- The Force Behind the Coming New Order!, 1976, said on pages 148, 150:

The holy spirit, which Jehovah prophesied that he would pour out in the last days, has not ceased to operate, for the remnant are still baptizing disciples of Christ in the name of that spirit.... The announced purpose behind God's pouring out of his spirit upon all sorts of flesh was that the recipients thereof might prophesy. The facts substantiate that the remnant of Christ's anointed disciples have been doing that prophesying to all the nations for a witness in favor of God's kingdom. Logically, then, they must be the ones upon whom God's spirit has actually been poured out. That spirit is behind their worldwide preaching. Why argue about it?.... After twelve years of such prophesying about God's kingdom, the anointed remnant had become better informed upon Jehovah God, the heavenly Source of the outpoured spirit....

They have not been ashamed of bearing the divine name, the name most holy. Their preaching and prophesying from house to house and from city to city on the basis of that name has resulted in magnifying that name all around the earth.

Slightly less explicit but still to the point are these statements:

.... Jehovah's organization must henceforth be guided and directed by Jehovah's spirit through the visible governing body made up of those servants whom Jehovah himself would appoint.... Jehovah's theocratically controlled organization under the immediate direction of Jehovah himself. -- The Watchtower, June 1, 1965, p. 352.

Let us now unmistakably identify Jehovah's channel of communication for our day.... Yes, particularly since 1919 has it been true that he has appointed the collective body of the anointed remnant over all the visible interests of the Kingdom.... It is vital that we appreciate this fact and respond to the directions of the "slave" as we would to the voice of God, because it is His provision. -- The Watchtower, June 15, 1957, p. 370.

In spite of its denials of claiming to be "inspired," in practice the Watchtower Society really does claim to be inspired -- it simply uses other words to say it. According to Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary, "inspire" means to "influence, move, or guide by divine or supernatural inspiration; to exert an animating, enlivening, or exalting influence on; to spur on, impel, motivate." 2 Timothy 3:16 says: "All Scripture is inspired of God." According to the Insight book, Vol. 1, pages 1202-3,

the phrase "inspired of God" translates the compound Greek word theopneustos, meaning, literally, "God-breathed" or "breathed by God."

Also, according to Insight, pages 1202-4, "inspiration" is:

The quality or state of being moved by or produced under the direction of a spirit from a superhuman source. When that source is Jehovah, the result is a pronouncement or writings that are truly the word of God.... The men used to write the Scriptures therefore cooperated with the operation of Jehovah's holy spirit. They were willing and submissive to God's guidance...., eager to know God's will and leading.... God directed them so that what they wrote coincided with and fulfilled his purpose. As spiritual men, their hearts and minds were attuned to God's will, they 'had the mind of Christ' and so were not setting down mere human wisdom nor a "vision of their own heart," as false prophets did.

The above and following quotations from Watchtower publications make it abundantly clear that the Society feels its activities fit this definition, although it reserves the word "inspiration" for the Bible alone and uses "guidance" and "direction" with reference to itself. How are guidance and direction different from inspiration? It is a distinction without a difference. Keep in mind the above definitions when reading the following quotations, as they reflect both the language we speak and the Bible's view of inspiration.

The November 1, 1956 Watchtower declared on page 666, for all practical purposes, that the Society is inspired:

Who controls the organization, who directs it? Who is at the head? A man? A group of men? A clergy class? A pope? A hierarchy? A council? No, none of these. How is that possible? In any organization is it not necessary that there be a directing head or policy- making part that controls or guides the organization? Yes. Is the living God, Jehovah, the Director of the theocratic Christian organization? Yes!

While the writer did not use the word "inspired," for obvious reasons, to be directed by God is to be inspired. That is the definition of inspiration, as shown above.

The April 1, 1972 Watchtower said on page 200:

.... Jehovah's witnesses today make their declaration of the good news of the Kingdom under angelic direction and support.

The book Holy Spirit -- The Force Behind the Coming New Order! said on pages 175-6:

Here is what he [Jehovah] says in Isaiah 51:15, 16:

"I, Jehovah, am your God, the One stirring up the sea that its waves may be boisterous. Jehovah of armies is his name. And I shall put my words in your mouth, and with the shadow of my hand I shall certainly cover you, in order to plant the heavens and lay the foundation of the earth and say to Zion, 'You are my people.'"

No obstacle put in His way by the enemies will prove to be insurmountable for Jehovah. Just as at Mount Sinai He put his word in the mouth of his chosen people through the mediator Moses and thereafter he led them under the protective shadow of his hand into the Promised Land, so he has done for the remnant of spiritual Israel. He has put his word, his message of the hour, into the mouth of the spiritual remnant for them to confess openly before all the world, for their own salvation and for that of responsive hearers. A "great crowd" of "other sheep" have acted favorably upon what they have heard and have taken God's word into their mouth.

The question at the bottom of the page asked:

In whose mouth has Jehovah put his word, and why has he covered these with the shadow of his hand?

Anyone in whose mouth Jehovah has "put his word" is inspired by him, by definition. Such words are by definition, "God-breathed," and fit the definition given above by the Insight book.

Clearly, the above material proves the Society considers its own words equivalent to those of Moses at Mount Sinai, through whom Jehovah gave his word to the Israelites. Moses was certainly inspired at that time, but in contrast to the Society, nothing that Jehovah spoke through him failed, "it all came true." (Joshua 21:45) Nor did it need to be revised at some later time, when "new light" appeared.

Similarly invoking the notion of "God-breathed," the book Survival Into a New Earth, 1984, said on page 109:

The members of spiritual Israel were looking forward to an inheritance "reserved in the heavens" for them. (1 Peter 1:3-5) But before they actually received that reward, Jehovah had a work for them to do. Concerning this, he prophetically said: "I shall put my words in your mouth, and with the shadow of my hand I shall certainly cover you, in order to plant the heavens and lay the foundation of the earth and say to Zion, 'You are my people.'" (Isaiah 51:16) He put his "words," his message, into the mouth of his servants for them to proclaim earth wide. With confidence they began to make known that God has planted the "new heavens" that neither men nor demons can uproot them. The way in which Jehovah has dealt with the representatives of heavenly Zion has clearly identified them as his people. In contrast with the spiritually and morally desolate condition of the world, the "land" occupied by spiritual Israel, their field of activity, has become a place where spiritual values and activities thrive. It is a spiritual paradise!

The above two quotations explicitly state that God causes the "anointed remnant" to speak God's words. That is inspiration.

The book Light I, 1930, said on page 12:

The remnant now "see visions"; that is to say, are given an understanding of things not heretofore understood.... The time for the fulfilment of the prophecy of Revelation seems to be from about 1879 forward until the kingdom is in full sway. It was about that date that the second presence of the Lord began to be observed, and that and other truths began to appear in The Watch Tower, which since then until now has been the means of communicating truth to those who love the Lord. All those who love God supremely believe that The Watch Tower was started and has been maintained by his power and grace.

The remnant is here claimed to be given an understanding of things by none other than Jehovah himself. On page 106 Light I said further:

Visible human creatures had to do with that message, [a resolution adopted at the 1922 Cedar Point, Ohio, convention] yet, in fact, it was a message of the Lord sent through his invisible angels, because without a doubt these are clothed with authority to direct the course of earthly members of God's organization.

The above is a case where the Society explicitly claims that what it said was not taken from the Bible, but was miraculously given to it through angels. Is this not a claim of inspiration? On page 113 Light I said:

.... it seems clear that the spirit of the Lord, operating by his invisible angels, directed his people on earth to take this action [of distributing a resolution adopted at a convention in Los Angeles in 1923].

The Watchtower, February 15, 1976, said on page 124:

We must take seriously what his Word says and what his organization reveals to us.... Would not a failure to respond to direction from God through his organization really indicate a rejection of divine rulership?

The Society has published anecdotes that attempt to show direct guidance by God of the actions of certain of its members. The 1975 Yearbook described how Jehovah's Witnesses got their name, and related this story on pages 150-1:

When he was eighty-eight years old A. H. Macmillan attended the "Fruitage of the Spirit" Assembly of Jehovah's Witnesses in the same city [Columbus, Ohio]. There, on August 1, 1964, Brother Macmillan made these interesting comments on how the adopting of that name came about:

"It was my privilege to be here in Columbus in 1931 when we received ... the new title or name ... I was amongst the five that were to make a comment on what we thought about the idea of accepting that name, and I told them this briefly: I thought that it was a splendid idea because that title there told the world what we were doing and what our business was. Prior to this we were called Bible Students. Why? Because that's what we were. And then when other nations began to study with us, we were called International Bible Students. But now we are witnesses for Jehovah God, and that title there tells the public just what we are and what we're doing....

"In fact, it was God Almighty, I believe, that led to that, for Brother Rutherford told me himself that he woke up one night when he was preparing for that convention and he said, 'What in the world did I suggest an international convention for when I have no special speech or message for them? Why bring them all here?' And then he began to think about it, and Isaiah 43 came to his mind. He got up at two o'clock in the morning and wrote in shorthand, at his own desk, an outline of the discourse he was going to give about the Kingdom, the hope of the world, and about the new name. And all that was uttered by him at that time was prepared that night, or that morning at two o'clock. And [there is] no doubt in my mind -- not then nor now -- that the Lord guided him in that, and that is the name Jehovah wants us to bear and we're very happy and very glad to have it."

Of course, almost everyone who has thought hard about a subject has experienced something similar. One might be doing something totally unrelated when a flash of thought comes along and one sees the solution to the problem. This can occur even in the middle of the night when one is lying awake thinking. People who do not think much do not experience this and cannot understand how it can happen.

The Watchtower Society sometimes publishes disclaimers that it is not inspired or infallible, but these have little practical value because it expects its members to view it as if it were inspired and infallible. That is the purpose behind the statements quoted above, such as "the anointed remnant are God's mouthpiece." That is why it disparages, and often disfellowships, members who publicly say it is not inspired or is fallible in particular instances. The Society's attitude is clearly shown in the following discussion.

Forced Acceptance of False Doctrines to Achieve Uniformity

In November 1954, the Douglas Walsh trial was held in the Scottish Court of Sessions, in which the Watchtower Society tried to establish before the British court that certain of its members were ordained ministers. High ranking leaders of the Society testified, including vice-president Fred Franz and legal counsel for the Society, Haydon C. Covington. Covington's testimony before the attorney for the Ministry of Labour and National Service included the following:

Q. Is it not vital to speak the truth on religious matters?

A. It certainly is.

Q. Is there in your view room in a religion for a change of interpretation of Holy Writ from time to time?

A. There is every reason for a change in interpretation as we view it, of the Bible. Our view becomes more clear as we see the prophesy fulfilled by time.

Q. You have promulgated -- forgive the word -- false prophesy?

A. We have -- I do not think we have promulgated false prophesy, there have been statements that were erronious, that is the way I put it, and mistaken.

Q. Is it a most vital consideration in the present situation of the world to know if the prophesy can be interpreted into terms of fact, when Christ's Second Coming was?

A. That is true, and we have always striven to see that we have the truth before we utter it. We go on the very best information we have but we cannot wait until we get perfect, because if we wait until we get perfect we would never be able to speak.

Q. Let us follow that up just a little. It was promulgated as a matter which must be believed by all members of Jehovah's Witnesses that the Lord's Second Coming took place in 1874?

A. I am not familiar with that. You are speaking on a matter that I know nothing of.

Q. You heard Mr. Franz's evidence?

A. I heard Mr. Franz testify, but I am not familiar with what he said on that, I mean the subject matter of what he was talking about, so I cannot answer any more than you can, having heard what he said.

Q. Leave me out of it?

A. That is the source of my information, what I have heard in court.

Q. You have studied the literature of your movement?

A. Yes, but not all of it. I have not studied the seven volumes of "Studies in the Scriptures," and I have not studied this matter that you are mentioning now of 1874. I am not at all familiar with that.

Q. Assume from me that it was promulgated as authoritative by the Society that Christ's Second Coming was in 1874?

A. Taking that assumption as a fact, it is a hypothetical statement.

Q. That was the publication of false prophesy?

A. That was the publication of a false prophesy, it was a false statement or an erronious statement in fulfilment of a prophesy that was false or erronious.

Q. And that had to be believed by the whole of Jehovah's Witnesses?

A. Yes, because you must understand we must have unity, we cannot have disunity with a lot of people going every way, an army is supposed to march in step.

Q. You do not believe in the worldly armies, do you?

A. We believe in the Christian Army of God.

Q. Do you believe in the worldly armies?

A. We have nothing to say about that, we do not preach against them, we merely say that the worldly armies, like the nations of the world today, are a part of Satan's Organisation, and we do not take part in them, but we do not say the nations cannot have their armies, we do not preach against warfare, we are merely claiming our exemption from it, that is all.

Q. Back to the point now. A false prophesy was promulgated?

A. I agree that.

Q. It had to be accepted by Jehovah's Witnesses?

A. That is correct.

Q. If a member of Jehovah's Witnesses took the view himself that that prophesy was wrong and said so he would be disfellowshipped?

A. Yes, if he said so and kept persisting in creating trouble, because if the whole organisation believes one thing, even though it be erronious and somebody else starts on his own trying to put his ideas across then there is disunity and trouble, there cannot be harmony, there cannot be marching. When a change comes it should come from the proper source, the head of the organisation, the governing body, not from the bottom upwards, because everybody would have ideas, and the organisation would disintegrate and go in a thousand different directions. Our purpose is to have unity.

Q. Unity at all costs?

A. Unity at all costs, because we believe and are sure that Jehovah God is using our organisation, the governing body of our organisation to direct it, even though mistakes are made from time to time.

Q. And unity based upon an enforced acceptance of false prophecy?

A. That is conceded to be true.

Q. And the person who expressed his view, as you say, that it was wrong, and was disfellowshipped, would be in breach of the Covenant, if he was baptized?

A. That is correct.

Q. And as you said yesterday expressly, would be worthy of death?

A. I think -- -- --

Q. Would you say yes or no?

A. I will answer yes, unhesitatingly.

Q. Do you call that religion?

A. It certainly is.

Q. Do you call it Christianity?

A. I certainly do.

"In practice, such trifles as contradictions in principle are easily set aside; the faculty of ignoring them makes the practical man." -- Henry Adams, The Education of Henry Adams

Fred Franz, then vice-president of the Society, also answered questions for the attorney for the Ministry of Labour and National Service.

Q. In addition to these regular publications do you prepare and issue a number of theological pamphlets and books from time to time?

A. Yes.

Q. Can you tell me this; are these theological publications and the semi-monthly periodicals used for discussion of statements of doctrine?

A. Yes.

Q. Are these statements of doctrine held to be authoritative within the Society?

A. Yes.

Q. Is their acceptance a matter of choice, or is it obligatory on all those who wish to be and remain members of the Society?

A. It is obligatory.........

The British government counsellor later directed attention to certain teachings that the Society had in time rejected, including some involving specific dates. What, he asked, if someone, at the time when such teaching was promulgated, had seen the error in it and had therefore not accepted it? What would the organization's attitude toward such one be? The testimony explains:

Q. Did [Pastor Russell] not fix 1874 as some other crucial date?

A. 1874 used to be understood as the date of Jesus' Second Coming spiritually.

Q. Do you say, used to be understood?

A. That is right.

Q. That was issued as a fact which was to be accepted by all who were Jehovah's Witnesses?

A. Yes.

Q. That is no longer now accepted, is it?

A. No.

........

Q. But it was a calculation which is no longer accepted by the Board of Directors of the Society?

A. That is correct.

Q. So that am I correct, I am just anxious to canvas the position; it became the bounden duty of the Witnesses to accept this miscalculation?

A. Yes

.........

Q. So that what is published as the truth today by the Society may have to be admitted to be wrong in a few years?

A. We have to wait and see.

Q. And in the meantime the body of Jehovah's Witnesses have been following error?

A. They have been following misconstructions on the Scriptures.

Q. Error?

A. Well, error.

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." -- F. Scott Fitzgerald, Esquire

Again the question as to how great the authority attributed to the Society's publications is came in for discussion. While at one point the vice president says that "one does not compulsorily accept," his testimony thereafter reverts back to the earlier position, as can be seen:

A. These [Watchtower Society] books give an exposition on the whole Scriptures.

Q. But an authoritative exposition?

A. They submit the Bible or the statements that are therein made, and the individual examines the statement and then the Scripture to see that the statement is Scripturally supported.

Q. He what?

A. He examines the Scripture to see whether the statement is supported by the Scripture. As the Apostle says: "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good".

Q. I understood the position to be -- do please correct me if I am wrong -- that a member of the Jehovah's Witnesses must accept as a true Scripture and interpretation what is given in the books I referred you to?

A. But he does not compulsorily do so, he is given his Christian right of examining the Scriptures to confirm that this is Scripturally sustained.

Q. And if he finds that the Scripture is not sustained by the books, or vice versa, what does he do?

A. The Scripture is there in support of the statement, that is why it is put there.

Q. What does a man do if he finds a disharmony between the Scripture and those books?

A. You will have to produce me a man who does find that, then I can answer, or he will answer.

Note Franz's waffling. He is unwilling, even under oath, to admit that present understanding can be in error, even though he just finished testifying that what is published as truth today may be error in a few years.

Q. Did you imply that the individual member has the right of reading the books and the Bible and forming his own view as to the proper interpretation of Holy Writ?

A. He comes -- -- --

Q. Would you say yes or no, and then qualify?

A. No. Do you want me to qualify now?

Q. Yes, if you wish?

A. The Scripture is there given in support of the statement, and therefore the individual when he looks up the Scripture and thereby verifies the statement, then he comes to the Scriptural view of the matter, Scriptural understanding as it is written in Acts, the seventeenth chapter and the eleventh verse, that the Bereans were more noble than those of Thessalonica in that they received the Word with all readiness, and they searched the Scripture to see whether those things were so, and we instruct to follow that noble course of the Bereans in searching the Scripture to see whether these things were so.

Q. A Witness has no alternative, has he, to accept as authoritative and to be obeyed instructions issued in the "Watchtower" or the "Informant" or "Awake"?

A. He must accept those.

To recap, Haydon C. Covington basically said that the Watchtower Society views unity as more important than even doctrinal truth, and that this desire for unity may even result in a forced acceptance of false prophecy. Fred Franz's testimony confirmed this, and further showed that, while the Society makes a show of encouraging people to examine its doctrines in light of the scriptures "to see whether these things are so" (Acts 17:10, 11), it does not allow its members to freely act upon the results of that examination if the Society's claims are found wanting. Since the Society will never admit to members that it is wrong right now, it does not truly allow them to examine its doctrines to see "whether these things were so," but in practice requires them to examine the scriptures to confirm that these things are so, and to "readjust" their thinking if they are unable to do that. In other words, no matter what an individual finds, he is obligated to believe whatever the Society teaches at that moment. At least, he is obligated not to publicly or privately disagree with the Society, and so if he really cannot bring himself to accept some doctrine, he must pretend to accept it, and live a lie in order to remain in good standing. Since Psalm 51:6 says of Jehovah, "you have taken delight in truthfulness itself in the inward parts," and the Bible says that Jehovah is a God of truth, this attitude would appear inconsistent with his will.

So, even though the Society states it is fallible and is not inspired, no member is allowed to act on this without serious consequences ranging from loss of congregational privileges to disfellowshipping. The Society wants every member to believe, as Covington testified, that any member who acts on the fact that Watchtower Society leaders are not infallible is worthy of death.

Part 2: The Orwellian Thinking of JWs

Overview:

The Orwellian Thinking of Jehovah's Witnesses

The famous novel Nineteen Eighty-Four,5 written by George Orwell in 1949, described a totalitarian society called Ingsoc (from 'English Socialism') in which a supreme state had imposed a kind of theocracy on the populace -- in effect, had created a "Kingdom of Heaven on earth." The novel was intended as a serious warning about what could happen if certain totalitarian trends Orwell saw developing during and shortly after World War II were allowed free rein. The supreme group at the head of the state was the Party. To ensure that everyone thought along Party lines, the Party carefully altered facts to suit its present situation, and rigorously trained people to go along with it. Orwell wrote:

Whatever the Party holds to be truth is truth. [Part 3, Ch. II; p. 252 hardcover; p. 205 paperback]

To ensure that Party truth was followed by everyone, a thought process called doublethink was enforced. Doublethink, as Orwell conceives it in Nineteen Eighty-Four, "is a vast system of mental cheating":

Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them. The Party intellectual knows in which direction his memories must be altered; he therefore knows that he is playing tricks with reality; but by the exercise of doublethink he also satisfies himself that reality is not violated. The process has to be conscious, or it would not be carried out with sufficient precision, but it also has to be unconscious, or it would bring with it a feeling of falsity and hence of guilt. Doublethink lies at the very heart of Ingsoc, since the essential act of the Party is to use conscious deception while retaining the firmness of purpose that goes with complete honesty. To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies -- all this is indispensably necessary. [Part 2, Ch. IX; p. 215-6 hardcover; p. 176-7 paperback]

Refer back to part 1 of this essay, where Haydon Covington expressed his thoughts about "unity at all costs." This is probably the most classic case of sincerely expressed doublethink one is likely to find anywhere.

The acknowledged forcing of Jehovah's Witnesses to accept false prophecy can be identified as a particular type of Orwellian doublethink Orwell calls blackwhite:

Oceanic society rests ultimately on the belief that Big Brother is omnipotent and that the Party is infallible. But since in reality Big Brother is not omnipotent and the Party is not infallible, there is need for an unwearying, moment-to-moment flexibility in the treatment of facts. The key word here is blackwhite.... Applied to a Party member, it means a loyal willingness to say that black is white when Party discipline demands this. But it means also the ability to believe that black is white, and more, to know that black is white, and to forget that one has ever believed the contrary. [Part 2, Ch. IX; p. 213 hardcover; p. 175 paperback]

Some Jehovah's Witnesses have literally said that if the Society told them to believe that the green book in front of them was really black, they would go along with it completely. One elder said that if the Society told him to jump, on the way up he would say, "How high?" Still others have said that if the Society told them to roll a peanut down the street with their nose they would do it.

Let us return to our discussion of the March 22, 1993 Awake!. The writer is apparently unaware that his argument is a two-edged sword. In the last paragraph quoted, he sets the stage for the claim that, in making its false predictions, the Society was not speaking in God's name. Nebulously speaking of "some who make spectacular predictions of the world's end" (but giving no hint that Jehovah's Witnesses have been foremost in making such predictions), he says:

They are voicing expectations based on their own interpretation of some scripture text or physical event.

As the May 15, 1930 Watchtower said, they were "sounding forth man-made theories" or "their own dreams and guesses."

If this is true, the Society was certainly not acting as "God's channel of communication" when it made its false predictions. This means that at best, the Society sometimes speaks in God's name and sometimes does not. How are the two cases to be distinguished? How does an individual Witness decide whether Jehovah put something into the "channel" or whether the "channel" is discharging the dreams of imperfect men? Does not Deuteronomy 18:20-22 have something to say about this?

The answer is that the Society does not want individuals to make that determination, but to act as Fred Franz and Haydon Covington said. It does not want individuals to act in accord with Psalm 32:9: "Do not make yourselves like a horse or mule without understanding, whose spiritedness is to be curbed even by bridle or halter," but rather to obey the words of Governing Body member Lloyd Barry: "We must be like an ass, be humble, and stay in the manger."6 In practice, if an individual Witness decides that in some particular case the Society is not speaking in God's name, and publicly says so, he is liable to be branded an "apostate" and disfellowshipped, as Fred Franz explained. In short, the Watchtower Society requires its members to practice doublethink.

Benjamin Franklin stated a good principle to guide those who love freedom:

They that give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.

To summarize, in order to parry the charge that Jehovah's Witnesses are false prophets because they have made false predictions in God's name, Awake! is forced to deny that the "anointed remnant" has ever claimed to be a prophet class. It is forced to admit that they have only been expounding their own "man-made theories" and their own "dreams and guesses."

The question now arises, if this is true about something so fundamental to the doctrines that Jehovah's Witnesses are required to believe, how much confidence can be put in all the rest of the Society's doctrinal interpretations?

Another important question is whether Awake!'s argument is even true. If so, then Jehovah's Witnesses are just another Christian religion. If not, then the Society has compounded the initial problem by putting lying on top of false prophecy. We shall examine these questions next.

We Never Said We Were Inspired!

"Amnesia's fine, but everybody else still knows who you are." -- anonymous

On part 1 this essay, the last paragraph quoted from page 4 of the March 22, 1993 Awake! contains a reference to a "*" footnote. This footnote is extremely significant. Although the paragraph itself is expressed in general terms, the footnote gets down to business and is really the main point of the series of articles. The Society has often used this literary technique, burying a "difficult" but important argument within a footnote.7 In the footnote, Awake! claims the Society never originated its false predictions in the name of Jehovah, just as it suggested in the main paragraph. But this is just bandying words, as the discussion following the footnote quoted below shows.

Keep in mind everything we have discussed so far when reading the footnote. It said:

Jehovah's Witnesses, in their eagerness for Jesus' second coming, have suggested dates that turned out to be incorrect. Because of this, some have called them false prophets. Never in these instances, however, did they presume to originate predictions 'in the name of Jehovah.' Never did they say, 'These are the words of Jehovah.' The Watchtower, the official journal of Jehovah's Witnesses, has said: "We have not the gift of prophecy." (January 1883, page 425) "Nor would we have our writings reverenced or regarded as infallible." (December 15, 1896, page 306) The Watchtower has also said that the fact that some have Jehovah's spirit "does not mean those now serving as Jehovah's witnesses are inspired. It does not mean that the writings in this magazine The Watchtower are inspired and infallible and without mistakes." (May 15, 1947, page 157) The Watchtower does not claim to be inspired in its utterances, nor is it dogmatic." (August 15, 1950, page 263) "The brothers preparing these publications are not infallible. Their writings are not inspired as are those of Paul and the other Bible writers. (2 Tim. 3:16) And so, at times, it has been necessary, as understanding became clearer, to correct views. (Prov. 4:18)" -- February 15, 1981, page 19.

This would be a very good explanation if it were true. The following quotations and discussion will allow the reader to judge for himself the extent to which Awake! has spoken truth. Note that saying Jehovah's Witnesses "have suggested dates that turned out to be incorrect" is somewhat like saying Adolf Hitler suggested that Jews be exterminated. See if there is any hint of mere "suggestion" in the quotations below.

One statement above said the Society is not dogmatic. Dogmatism, according to Webster's Dictionary, is "positiveness in assertion of opinion especially when unwarranted or arrogant." All the Society's false predictions were certainly unwarranted. See if the quotations below are not arrogant and dogmatic. The Society has, in fact, obligated itself to write all its publications as if it had great authority, even when the arguments are patently ridiculous, as can be seen in the following statement of philosophy from the April 1, 1986 Watchtower, page 30:

Many.... denominations allow widely divergent views among the clergy and the laity because they feel they cannot be certain as to just what is Bible truth. They are like the scribes and Pharisees of Jesus' day who were unable to speak as persons having authority, which is how Jesus taught.

So even if the Society's writers are not sure their argument is correct, this philosophy prevents them from taking a cautious position. They must speak with "authority" even when they know they are speaking nonsense.

Here are some quotations that illustrate these points. They show unequivocally that the Watchtower Society has said explicitly, "These are the words of Jehovah."

The Basis of Early False Predictions

From the very first, C. T. Russell stated his beliefs strongly. He and N. H. Barbour coauthored a book in 1877 called Three Worlds and the Harvest of this World, in which they started their chronology with "a date well authenticated and generally accepted by scholars," namely, 536 B.C., for the first year of Cyrus the Great, conqueror of Babylon. The actual date, available in their time, was 539 B.C. This publication contained the seeds of almost all the Society's chronological speculations that appeared over the next fifty years.

To show that Russell and Barbour were not the least bit tentative in stating their views, here is what Three Worlds said:

.... I am not willing to admit that this calculation is even one year out. Not from dogmatism, for I am ready to admit that my opinion, or my reasoning, may be as faulty as that of many others; and if, in the present case, there was but this one argument, I should say, it is quite possible errors may be found arising in some unexpected quarter. But there is such an array of evidence.... If you had solved a difficult problem in mathematics, you might very well doubt if you had not possibly made some error of calculation. But if you had solved that problem in seven different ways, all independent one of another, and in each and every case reached the same result, you would be a fool any longer to doubt the accuracy of that result. And this is a fair illustration of the weight of evidence that can be brought to bear on the truthfulness of our present position. [p. 84]

The very first issue of Zion's Watch Tower, July, 1879, stated on page 1 that the object of its publication was to present, not theories, but facts:

That we are living "in the last days" -- "the days of the Lord" -- "the end" of the Gospel age, and consequently, in the dawn of the "new" age, are facts not only discernible by the close student of the Word, led by the spirit, but the outward signs recognizable by the world bear the same testimony.

Volume II of Studies in the Scriptures, entitled The Time Is At Hand, originally published in 1889, said concerning the Times of the Gentiles, on pages 76-7:

God's Kingdom, the Kingdom of Jehovah's Anointed... will be established gradually, during a great time of trouble with which the Gospel age will close, and in the midst of which present dominions shall be utterly consumed, passing away amid great confusion.

In this chapter we present the Bible evidence proving that the full end of the times of the Gentiles, i.e., the full end of their lease of dominion, will be reached in A.D. 1914; and that that date will be the farthest limit of the rule of imperfect men. And be it observed, that if this is shown to be a fact firmly established by the Scriptures, it will prove: --

Firstly, That at that date the Kingdom of God, for which our Lord taught us to pray, saying, "Thy Kingdom come," will have obtained full, universal control, and that it will then be "set up," or firmly established, in the earth, on the ruins of present institutions.

Then are listed six more predictions, which also failed. Note that what Russell called a "Bible proof" has proved to be nothing more than his own wishful thinking. On page 99 The Time Is At Hand further said:

In view of this strong Bible evidence concerning the Times of the Gentiles, we consider it an established truth that the final end of the kingdoms of this world, and the full establishment of the Kingdom of God, will be accomplished by the end of A.D. 1914.

On page 101 The Time Is At Hand said:

Be not surprised, then, when in subsequent chapters we present proofs that the setting up of the Kingdom of God is already begun, that it is pointed out in prophecy as due to begin the exercise of power in A.D. 1878, and that the "battle of the great day of God Almighty" (Rev. 16:14), which will end in A.D. 1914 with the complete overthrow of earth's present rulership, is already commenced. The gathering of the armies is plainly visible from the standpoint of God's Word.

In the July 15, 1906 Watch Tower, on page 229, Russell wrote:

Many are the inquiries relative to the truths presented in MILLENNIAL DAWN and ZION'S WATCH TOWER, as to whence they came and how they developed to their present symmetrical and beautiful proportions -- Were they the results of visions? Did God in any supernatural way grant the solution of these hitherto mysteries of his plan? Are the writers more than ordinary beings? Do they claim any supernatural wisdom or power? or how comes this revelation of God's truth?

No, dear friends, I claim nothing of superiority, nor supernatural power, dignity or authority; nor do I aspire to exalt myself in the estimation of my brethren of the household of faith....

No, the truths I present, as God's mouthpiece, were not revealed in visions or dreams nor by God's audible voice, nor all at once, but gradually, especially since 1870, and particularly since 1880. Neither is this clear unfolding of truth due to any human ingenuity or acuteness of perception, but to the simple fact that God's due time has come; and if I did not speak, and no other agent could be found, the very stones would cry out.

Clearly Russell's arrogance knew no bounds. He, like the Watchtower Society today, wanted to have it both ways. He wanted his writings to be viewed as coming from God, because he, as "God's mouthpiece," was telling forth God's thoughts. On the other hand God did not directly "inspire" him, but in some mysterious and unspecified way "revealed" things to him. Today, hardly anyone making statements such as "I am God's mouthpiece" would be taken seriously.

A number of times Russell clearly implied he could not possibly be wrong. Zion's Watch Tower, July 15, 1894, said on page 226, under the subtitle "Can It Be Delayed Until 1914?":

Seventeen years ago people said, concerning the time features presented in MILLENIAL DAWN, They seem reasonable in many respects, but surely no such radical changes could occur between now and the close of 1914: if you had proved that they would come about in a century or two, it would seem much more probable....

Now, in view of recent labor troubles and threatened anarchy, our readers are writing to know if there may not be a mistake in the 1914 date. They say that they do not see how present conditions can hold out so long under the strain.

We see no reason for changing the figures -- nor could we change them if we would. They are, we believe, God's dates, not ours. But bear in mind that the end of 1914 is not the date for the beginning, but for the end of the time of trouble. We see no reason for changing from our opinion expressed in the view presented in the WATCH TOWER of January 15, '92. We advise that it be read again.

The January 15, 1892 Watch Tower said on page 19:

The Scriptures give unmistakable testimony to those who have full faith in its records, that there is a great time of trouble ahead of the present comparative calm in the world -- a trouble which will embroil all nations, overthrow all existing institutions, civil, social and religious, bring about a universal reign of anarchy and terror, and prostrate humanity in the very dust of despair, thus to make them ready to appreciate the power that will bring order out of that confusion and institute the new rule of righteousness. All this, the Scriptures show us, is to come to pass before the year 1914 (See MILLENNIAL DAWN, Vol. II, Chapter IV.) -- that is, within the next twenty-three years.

If the scriptural testimony was "unmistakable," and if Russell was presenting "God's dates," and he was "God's mouthpiece," it can hardly be denied Russell was arrogantly dogmatic. What man of faith would doubt the words of "God's mouthpiece"?

Under J. F. Rutherford the Society's dogmatism reached new heights. The 1917 book The Finished Mystery, published shortly after Rutherford took office, on pages 62 and 64 said with great authority:

The data presented in comments on Rev. 1:1.... prove that the Spring of 1918 will bring upon Christendom a spasm of anguish greater even than that experienced in the Fall of 1914.

The book Millions Now Living Will Never Die, 1920 Edition, said on pages 89-90:

As we have heretofore stated, the great jubilee cycle is due to begin in 1925. At that time the earthly phase of the kingdom shall be recognized.... Therefore we may confidently expect that 1925 will mark the return of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob and the faithful prophets of old, particularly those named by the Apostle in Hebrews chapter eleven, to the condition of human perfection.

On page 97 it said:

Based upon the argument heretofore set forth, then, that the old order of things, the old world, is ending and is therefore passing away, and that the new order is coming in, and that 1925 shall mark the resurrection of the faithful worthies of old and the beginning of reconstruction, it is reasonable to conclude that millions of people now on the earth will be still on the earth in 1925. Then, based upon the promises set forth in the divine Word, we must reach the positive and indisputable conclusion that millions now living will never die.

Would any reader take these things as mere "suggestions?" Anything that is "positive and indisputable" is infallible. Further showing boundless dogmatism, Rutherford's first book, The Harp of God, after describing the development of Bible Societies, the increase of colleges and all kinds of inventions, says of them on page 239:

This is without question a fulfilment of the prophecy testifying to the "time of the end." These physical facts can not be disputed and are sufficient to convince any reasonable mind that we have been in the "time of the end" since 1799.

In a similar fashion the March 1, 1922 Watch Tower offered more suggestions:

The indisputable facts, therefore, show that the "time of the end" began in 1799; that the Lord's second presence began in 1874.

The 1927 book Creation, on pages 294, 295, 298 said:

Twelve hundred and sixty years from 539 A.D. brings us to 1799, which is another proof that 1799 definitely marks the beginning of "the time of the end."

The 1929 book Prophecy, pages 65-66, said:

.... the second presence of the Lord Jesus Christ began in 1874 A.D. This proof is specifically set out in the booklet entitled Our Lord's Return.

The Society made many dogmatic statements about what 1925 would bring. In an article on chronology, the May 15, 1922 Watch Tower said:

We have no doubt whatever in regard to the chronology relating to the dates of 1874, 1914, 1918, and 1925.

It was on this line of reckoning that the dates 1874, 1914, and 1918 were located; and the Lord has placed the stamp of his seal upon 1914 and 1918 beyond any possibility of erasure. What further evidence do we need?....

There can be no more question about 1925 than there was about 1914. The fact that all the things that some looked for in 1914 did not materialize does not alter the chronology one whit. Noting the date marked so prominently, it is very easy for the finite mind to conclude that all the work to be done must center about it, and thus many are inclined to anticipate more than has been really foretold. Thus it was in 1844, in 1874, in 1878 as well as in 1914 and 1918. Looking back we can now easily see that those dates were clearly indicated in Scripture and doubtless intended by the Lord to encourage his people, as they did, as well as to be a means of testing and sifting when all that some expected did not come to pass. That all that some expect to see in 1925 may not transpire that year will not alter the date one whit more than in the other cases.

It is interesting to see in the above quotation how the Society set up the reader to handle future disappointments. The onus is placed upon an unspecified "some" who might be developing expectations for 1925. In putting matters this way the Society avoids taking any responsibility for the false expectations -- expectations that it was even then planting and cultivating in the minds of those who took them seriously. This policy of blaming the victim has been a constant practice from Russell's day down to the present, as we will see.

That this is an effective policy is shown by the way a Bible Student woman active in that time period later described the events. The 1975 Yearbook of Jehovah's Witnesses attributed the problem, not to the organization that published the information, but to "the brothers" who read it, saying on page 146:

The year 1925 came and went. Jesus' anointed followers were still on earth as a class. The faithful men of old times -- Abraham, David and others -- had not been resurrected to become princes in the earth. (Ps. 45:16) So, as Anna MacDonald recalls: "1925 was a sad year for many brothers. Some of them were stumbled; their hopes were dashed. They had hoped to see some of the 'ancient worthies' resurrected. Instead of its being considered a 'probability,' they read into it that it was a 'certainty,' and some prepared for their own loved ones with expectancy of their resurrection."

The Watch Tower of June 15, 1922 said:

The chronology of present truth might be a mere happening if it were not for the repetitions in the two great cycles of 1845 and 2520 years, which take it out of the realm of chance and into that of certainty.... where the agreements of dates and events come by the dozens, they cannot possibly be by chance, but must be by the design or plan of the only personal Being capable of such a plan -- Jehovah himself; and the chronology itself must be right.

In the passages of the Great Pyramid of Gizeh the agreement of one or two measurements with the present-truth chronology might be accidental, but the correspondency of dozens of measurements proves that the same God designed both pyramid and plan -- and at the same time proves the correctness of the chronology....

It is on the basis of such and so many correspondencies -- in accordance with the soundest laws known to science -- that we affirm that, Scripturally, scientifically, and historically, present-truth chronology is correct beyond a doubt. Its reliability has been abundantly confirmed by the dates and events of 1874, 1914, and 1918. Present- truth chronology is a secure basis on which the consecrated child of God may endeavor to search out things to come.

The July 15, 1922 Watch Tower, under the heading "The Strong Cable of Chronology," said:

This chronology is not of man, but of God. Being of divine origin and divinely corroborated, present-truth chronology stands in a class by itself, absolutely and unqualifiedly correct....

In the chronology of present truth there are so many inter-relationships among the dates that it is not a mere string of dates, not a chain, but a cable of strands firmly knit together -- a divinely unified system, with most of the dates having such remarkable relations with others as to stamp the system as not of human origin....

It will be clearly shown that present-truth chronology displays indisputable evidence of divine foreknowledge of the principle dates, and that this is proof of divine origin, and that the system is not a human invention but a discovery of divine truth.... we believe that it bears the stamp of approval of Almighty God.

It would be absurd to claim that the relationship discovered was not the result of divine arrangement.

The Watch Tower, September 1, 1922, said on page 262:

.... all Europe is like a boiling pot, with the intensity of the heat ever increasing. If any one who has studied the Bible can travel through Europe and not be convinced that the world has ended, that the day of God's vengeance is here, that the Messianic kingdom is at the door, then he has read the Bible in vain. The physical facts show beyond question of a doubt that 1914 ended the Gentile times; and as the Lord foretold, the old order is being destroyed by war, famine, pestilence, and revolution.

The date 1925 is even more distinctly indicated by the Scriptures because it is fixed by the law God gave to Israel. Viewing the present situation in Europe, one wonders how it will be possible to hold back the explosion much longer; and that even before 1925 the great crisis will be reached and probably passed.

The 1922 Cedar Point, Ohio, convention is regularly referred to in Watchtower publications as a major milestone in the organization's history. Today the Society sometimes quotes a small portion of the keynote address in support of 1914. It ignores the fact that 1799 and 1874 figured with equal strength in the argument advanced and in the conclusion the audience was called upon to reach. The November 1, 1922 Watch Tower reproduced the talk:

Bible prophecy shows that the Lord was due to appear for the second time in the year 1874. Fulfilled prophecy shows beyond a doubt that he did appear in 1874. Fulfilled prophecy is otherwise designated the physical facts; and these facts are indisputable....

Since [Christ] has been present from 1874, it follows, from the facts as we now see them, that the period from 1874 to 1914 is the day of preparation. This in no wise militates against the thought that "the time of the end" is from 1799 until 1914....

For six thousand years God has been preparing for this kingdom. For nineteen hundred years he has been gathering out the kingdom class from amongst men. Since 1874 the King of glory has been present; and during that time he has conducted a harvest and has gathered unto himself the temple class. Since 1914 the King of glory has taken his power and reigns. He has cleansed the lips of the temple class and sends them forth with the message. The importance of the message of the kingdom cannot be overstated. It is the message of all messages. It is the message of the hour. It is incumbent upon those who are the Lord's to declare it. The kingdom of heaven is at hand; the King reigns; Satan's empire is falling; millions now living will never die.

Do you believe it? Do you believe that the King of glory is present, and has been since 1874? Do you believe that during that time he has conducted his harvest work? Do you believe that he has had during that time a faithful and wise servant through whom he directed his work and the feeding of the household of faith? Do you believe that the Lord is now in his temple, judging the nations of earth? Do you believe that the King of glory has begun his reign?

Then back to the field, O ye sons of the most high God! Gird on your armor! Be sober, be vigilant, be active, be brave. Be faithful and true witnesses for the Lord. Go forward in the fight until every vestige of Babylon lies desolate. Herald the message far and wide. The world must know that Jehovah is God and that Jesus Christ is King of kings and Lord of lords. This is the day of all days. Behold, the King reigns! You are his publicity agents. Therefore advertise, advertise, advertise, the King and his kingdom.

Stirring words, indeed. But have they stood the test of time? Two of the three key dates mentioned have already been abandoned. Of the millions then living that were never to die, most already have. Can it be said The Watch Tower was not dogmatic? Interestingly, this talk also moved the events that had been taught to have occurred in 1878, up to 1914.

The Watch Tower, April 1, 1923, said on page 106, in the "Question and Answer" section:

Question: Did the order go forth eight months ago to the Pilgrims to cease talking about 1925? Have we more reason, or as much, to believe the kingdom will be established in 1925 than Noah had to believe that there would be a flood?

Answer: .... There was never at any time any intimation to the Pilgrim brethren that they should cease talking about 1925.... Our thought is, that 1925 is definitely settled by the Scriptures, marking the end of the typical jubilees. Just exactly what will happen at that time no one can tell to a certainty; but we expect such a climax in the affairs of the world that the people will begin to realize the presence of the Lord and his kingdom power. He is already present, as we know, and has taken unto himself his power and begun his reign. He has come to his temple. He is dashing to pieces the nations. Every Christian ought to be content, then, to do with his might what his hands find to do, without stopping to quibble about what is going to happen on a certain date.

As to Noah, the Christian now has much more upon which to base his faith than Noah had (so far as the Scriptures reveal) upon which to base his faith in a coming deluge.

The Watch Tower, July 15, 1924, said:

Let no one now be deceived by calculations as to just when the Lord will cease his work with the Church on earth. The year 1925 is a date definitely and clearly marked in the Scriptures, even more clearly than that of 1914; but it would be presumptuous on the part of any faithful follower of the Lord to assume just what the Lord is going to do during that year.

So it is clear that, while some disclaimers were issued, the Society wanted its members to firmly believe that 1925 was to be an extremely important year, just as it did with 1975. As with Russell earlier, all the predictions were based on indisputable facts and were from God.

Returning to our discussion of Awake!, the footnote on page 4 stated:

The Watchtower, the official journal of Jehovah's Witnesses, has said: "We have not the gift of prophecy." (January 1883, page 425) "Nor would we have our writings reverenced or regarded as infallible." (December 15, 1896, page 306)

True, such statements have been made, but they are overshadowed by far stronger ones. Before looking at a few of these, here is the context of the December 15, 1896 Zion's Watch Tower, page 306 (p. 2080 Reprints). Using the royal "we," Russell wrote:

As we have been to some extent, by the grace of God, used in the ministry of the Gospel, it may not be out of place to say here what we have frequently said in private, and previously in these columns, -- namely, that while we appreciate the love, sympathy, confidence and fellowship of fellow-servants and of the entire household of faith, we want no homage, no reverence, for ourselves or our writings; nor do we wish to be called Reverend or Rabbi. Nor do we wish that any should be called by our name. The name of him who died for all -- the name Christian -- is quite sufficient to designate the spiritual sons of God, the true brethren of Christ; and whatsoever is more than this cometh of evil, of carnality, and tends toward more of the same.

Nor would we have our writings reverenced or regarded as infallible, or on a par with the holy Scriptures. The most we claim or have ever claimed for our teachings is, that they are what we believe to be harmonious interpretations of the divine Word, in harmony with the spirit of the truth. And we still urge, as in the past, that each reader study the subjects we present in the light of the Scriptures, proving all things by the Scriptures, accepting what they see to be thus approved, and rejecting all else. It is to this end, to enable the student to trace the subject in the divinely inspired Record, that we so freely intersperse both quotations and citations of the Scriptures upon which to build.

Here are some statements that overshadow disclaimers such as the above.

The Holy Spirit has revealed to us through the word the presence of the Bridegroom and we heard his voice and opened the door of faith and he came in to us and supped with us, and caused us to sit down to meat (truth), and himself has been our teacher and served us. [Zion's Watch Tower, August, 1880, p. 3; p. 126 Reprints]

During the last six or seven years, the Lord has been leading us, his people, in a very remarkable manner. As we look backward we can see that our pathway has been as "a shining light .... shining more and more." It has been progressive, bringing us strength with "meat in due season." It has caused us to grow both in grace and knowledge and this growth, taken in connection with the fact that we are not obliged to look back and now call darkness what was then called by some of the brethren, "a great flood of light," is the very strongest grounds for confidence that the same Lord who then supplied us light from the word, is still providing of the same kind.

If we were following a man undoubtedly it would be different with us; undoubtedly one human idea would contradict another and that which was light one or two or six years ago would be regarded as darkness now: But with God there is no variableness, neither shadow of turning, and so it is with truth; any knowledge or light coming from God must be like its author. A new view of truth never can contradict a former truth. "New light" never extinguishes older "light," but adds to it. If you were lighting up a building containing seven gas jets you would not extinguish one every time you lighted another, but would add one light to another and they would be in harmony and thus give increase of light: So is it with the light of truth; the true increase is by adding, not by substituting one for another. [Zion's Watch Tower, February, 1881, p. 3; p. 188 Reprints]

C. T. Russell's View of Himself

Contrast the confident statements above, about having had so much truth revealed to him by "the Lord," with Russell's statement in the September 15, 1910 Watch Tower on pages 298-9 (4684-5 Reprints). Judge whether his confident statement that Jesus "himself has been our teacher and served us" was true, or whether all along he was really speaking "man-made theories and guesses":

Those parts of the Bible which once we thought we understood well, we find that we did not understand at all. Some of the very things relative to the ransom, relative to salvation, we did not understand. Looking back over our experiences, we fully believed that there was a God and that he would reward those who diligently sought him, and that he had sent Jesus his Son, but how and why, we did not comprehend. We had wrong ideas as to what was the penalty for sin; wrong ideas as to why a Savior should come; entirely wrong ideas as to what the Savior did; wrong ideas as to what he was to do in the future, and as to what would be our relationship to the Father and the Savior. We knew, in some sense of the word, that we were called to be a son, but how to become a son and what was meant by the begetting of the holy Spirit, and kindred terms, we did not comprehend; and in our experience we have found none who ever did comprehend these things.

So we believe that the thought for us to take in this connection is that it is because we are living in this particular time, in the ending of this age, that we are favored with such a clear unfolding of spiritual things.... The very ablest minds in the world have examined these subjects, but now, by God's grace, we have come to the place where the vail is taken away and where we can see the real meaning of God's Word -- not merely one person can see it, but hundreds, thousands, see it.

We think that we get the right conception to thus view it rather than to think that we had some great power which enabled us to put together a great system of theology, more wonderful than all other systems of theology put together -- a thousand times more wonderful. Therefore, the simplest way to explain the matter is to acknowledge that the Lord's due time has come and that he has guided to the right understanding.

If, then, the Lord has provided us with something in our day that other days than those of the Apostles knew nothing about, no matter how good nor how wise they were -- for us to ignore the line of teaching which has been thus developed would be, in our judgment, to ignore the Lord's providences. It is for each one to think for himself, however, and to guide his conduct in every way accordingly.

So at all times, whether in 1881 or in 1910, Russell felt his current teachings were completely correct, "by God's grace." At any given time he had the "real meaning of God's Word," having been guided by the Lord "to the right understanding." Disagreeing with his "line of teaching which has been thus developed would be, in our judgment, to ignore the Lord's providences." This is intellectual intimidation. Who would be so bold as to "ignore the Lord's providences?" As with the Society today, these practices nullify any statements about not being infallible or inspired. Russell's suggestion that a person should "think for himself" and "guide his conduct in every way accordingly" was thoroughly disingenuous.

That Russell had an exalted opinion of himself can be seen in the following statement by the presiding Justice from the decision in his 1908 divorce trial:

His course of conduct towards his wife evidenced such insistent egotism and extravagant self praise that it would be manifest to the jury that his conduct towards her was one of continual arrogant domination, that would necessarily render the life of any Christian woman a burden and make her condition intolerable.

Russell's arrogance apparently stemmed, not from any personal ambition, but from a sincere belief dating back to his childhood that he had been specially chosen by God to dispense spiritual food. He ultimately came to believe that he personally was the "faithful and discreet slave." The December 1, 1916 Watch Tower, page 5998 of Reprints, said:

It is here interesting to note that Jesus said, "Who then is a faithful and wise servant, whom his Lord hath made ruler over his household, to give them meat in due season? Blessed is that servant, whom his Lord, when he cometh, shall find so doing! Verily, I say unto you that he shall make him ruler over all his goods." Thousands of the readers of Pastor Russell's writings believe that he filled the office of "that faithful and wise servant," and that his great work was giving to the household of faith meat in due season. His modesty and humility precluded him from openly claiming this title, but he admitted as much in private conversation.

It was apparently this belief -- that he had a special appointment from God -- that led to virtually equating his own writings with the Bible itself. In the following material from the September 15, 1910 Watch Tower article "Is the Reading of 'Scripture Studies' Bible Study?", pages 298-9 (4684-5 Reprints), note the difficulty Russell had in maintaining humility. The article discussed the "plan of reading twelve pages of the STUDIES IN THE SCRIPTURES each day." It gave a rather mixed message about how the Bible ought to be viewed. Since Studies in the Scriptures pretty well covered everything the serious Bible student needed to know, it said that, while reading the Bible was important, and "the six volumes of SCRIPTURE STUDIES are not intended to supplant the Bible," nevertheless the volumes "are in such form that they, of themselves, contain the important elements of the Bible as well as the comments or elucidations of those bible statements."

If the six volumes of SCRIPTURE STUDIES are practically the Bible topically arranged, with Bible proof-texts given, we might not improperly name the volumes -- the Bible in an arranged form. That is to say, they are not merely comments on the bible, but they are practically the Bible itself, since there is no desire to build any doctrine or thought on any individual preference or on any individual wisdom, but to present the entire matter on the lines of the Word of God. We therefore think it safe to follow this kind of reading, this kind of instruction, this kind of Bible study.

Furthermore, not only do we find that people cannot see the divine plan in studying the Bible by itself, but we see, also, that if anyone lays the SCRIPTURE STUDIES aside, even after he has used them, after he has become familiar with them, after he has read them for ten years -- if he then lays them aside and ignores them and goes to the Bible alone, though he has understood his Bible for ten years, our experience shows that within two years he goes into darkness. On the other hand, if he had merely read the SCRIPTURE STUDIES with their references, and had not read a page of the Bible, as such, he would be in the light at the end of the two years, because he would have the light of the Scriptures.

How would Russell view the Watchtower Society today, having laid aside the Scripture Studies for some seventy years?

Further along in the article, after suggesting that people should check Studies in the Scriptures against the Bible, Russell said:

We would conclude, practically, that we could not understand anything about the Bible except as it was revealed. We would, therefore, not waste a great deal of time doing what we know some people do, reading chapter after chapter, to no profit. We would not think of doing it. We would not think we were studying the Scriptures at all. We would think we were following the course that had been anything but profitable to ourselves and many others in the past -- merely reading over the Scriptures. We would say that the same Heavenly Father who had guided us to this truth, to this understanding of the Scriptures as his children, if he had some further information for us he would bring it to our attention in some manner; and therefore we would not see the necessity of reading the new Testament every day or every year; we would not consider that necessary. We would consider that the Scripture which says, "They shall be all taught of God," would imply that in his own appointed way God would bring to our attention whatever feature of divine truth would be "meat in due season for the household of faith."

In other words, God had already revealed to Russell everything he needed to know up to that point, and when God wanted him to know anything else, he would bring it to Russell's attention. In the meantime there was no need for Russell to read the Bible, since he already had everything he needed from it. Was he not God's specially appointed messenger, God's mouthpiece? Of course, this applied also to the Bible Students generally. Apparently Russell never read Joshua 1:8:

This book of the law should not depart from your mouth, and you must in an undertone read in it day and night, in order that you may take care to do according to all that is written in it; for then you will make your way successful and then you will act wisely.

After some discussion about preaching only what one understands, Russell continued:

After God favors us in this time with an understanding of Present Truth, he has given us a knowledge of more truth than we could have gained in a thousand years if we had read and studied unaided; and now we can attempt to present it to others. Why has he given us a knowledge of this Truth? He wishes us to be "thoroughly furnished unto every good word and work."

It must be asked, who aided Russell to gain his "understanding of Present Truth?" It certainly was not the Second Adventists, as regards much of the doctrine he taught in 1910. What he implied was that God -- somehow -- mysteriously revealed truth to him. Russell was as incapable of seeing the possibility that he could be wrong right now as any of Jehovah's Witnesses today. He clearly came to think his own writings were indistinguishable from the Bible itself. This is obvious in his next statement, which is a left-handed way of implying that his volumes could not possibly contain error:

This is not, therefore, putting the SCRIPTURE STUDIES as a substitute for the Bible, because so far as substituting for the Bible, the STUDIES, on the contrary, continually refer to the Bible; and if one has any doubt as to a reference or if one's recollection should lapse in any degree, one should refresh his memory, and, in fact, should see that his every thought is in harmony with the Bible -- not merely in accord with the SCRIPTURE STUDIES, but in accord with the Bible.

Conclusion of Parts 1 and 2

Returning to the Awake! footnote, we next consider these statements:

The Watchtower has also said that the fact that some have Jehovah's spirit "does not mean those now serving as Jehovah's witnesses are inspired. It does not mean that the writings in this magazine The Watchtower are inspired and infallible and without mistakes." (May 15, 1947, page 157) The Watchtower does not claim to be inspired in its utterances, nor is it dogmatic." (August 15, 1950, page 263)

Again these statements are basically true, but are overshadowed by many others implying or stating directly that the publications of the Watchtower Society are from God. As Fred Franz stated, Jehovah is the editor of The Watchtower. Who would be inclined to argue with such an editor? The July 1, 1943 Watchtower contained statements that reveal how the Society really expects people to view it. On page 203 it stated:

... Christ Jesus, the court's official mouthpiece of interpretation, reserves to himself that office as head of Jehovah's "faithful and wise servant" class. He merely uses the "servant" class to publish the interpretation after the Supreme Court by Christ Jesus reveals it.

In the same Watchtower the article "Righteous Requirements," on pages 204-6, further illustrates such intellectual intimidation. The article explicitly declares that the Society's instructions are exactly the same as if God himself spoke directly to the members.

This Society was authorized by the Lord to bring forth things new and old for the household of faith and do the work for which the Lord had organized it. Therefore it is fully qualified and duly authorized to issue a "call to action" to all who claim to be on the Lord's side to busy themselves in doing the work of the Lord.

This "call to action" sent out by the Lord through the Society is based on the fulfilled prophecies of his Word clearly revealed to those who have the mind of the Lord....

Now, the apostle says, Jehovah speaks to us through his Son. (Heb. 1:1, 2) The Son has returned as King; he has come to his temple. He has appointed his "faithful and wise servant", who is his visible mouthpiece....

These expressions of God's will by his King and through his established agency constitute his law or rule of action for the "faithful and wise servant" and for their goodwill companions today who will dwell upon the earth for ever in the New World. The Lord breaks down our organization instructions further and makes them more practicable by further instructing us through his "faithful and wise servant". He says, 'Let us assign the field, the world, to special pioneers, regular pioneers and companies of Jehovah's witnesses in an orderly way, sufficient for everyone to thoroughly witness therein, and let us place upon each one the responsibility of caring for the New World interest in these respective assignments.' He says the requirements for special pioneers shall be 175 hours and 50 back-calls per month, which should develop into a reasonable number of studies; and for regular pioneers 150 hours and as many back-calls and studies as can be properly developed during that time. And for company publishers he says, 'Let us make a quota of 60 hours and 12 back-calls and at least one study a week for each publisher.' These directions come to us from the Lord through his established agency directing what is required of us; and, for those who really love the Lord and are guided by his counsel, that is a reasonable service requirement. This expression of the Lord's will should be the end of all controversy. It is for your good that these requirements are made; for thereby you are enabled to prove your integrity and magnify the Lord's name.

These directions from the Lord come to us as individuals and as collective units called "companies"....

The Lord through his "faithful and wise servant" now states to us, "Let us cover our territory four times in six months." That becomes our organization instructions and has the same binding force on us that his statement to the Logos had when he said, "Let us make man in our image." It is our duty to accept this additional instruction and obey it.

Somehow, the idea that covering territory four times in six months has the same force as Jehovah's telling the Logos "Let us make man in our image," is difficult to picture. It brings on a severe bout of cognitive dissonance.

Back in the Awake! footnote, we find these further statements:

"The brothers preparing these publications are not infallible. Their writings are not inspired as are those of Paul and the other Bible writers. (2 Tim. 3:16) And so, at times, it has been necessary, as understanding became clearer, to correct views. (Prov. 4:18)" -- February 15, 1981, page 19.

As with earlier statements, these are overshadowed by much other published material. For example, the 1983 book United in Worship of the Only True God book asks several questions on page 123:

Do we truly appreciate how Jehovah is directing his visible organization? When we appreciatively accept the spiritual provisions that come through the 'slave' class and its Governing body, for whom are we showing respect?

The reader is referred to Luke 10:16, which says:

He that listens to you listens to me [too]. Moreover, he that disregards me disregards [also] him that sent me forth.

Although it is not directly stated, the implication is that an appreciative Witness will accept whatever spiritual provisions the Society makes as if those provisions came directly from God. So while the Society admits it can, in principle, make errors, it wants individual Jehovah's Witnesses to treat it as if it were infallible.

The June 1, 1982 Watchtower contained the main study articles "Loyally Submitting to Theocratic Order" and "Each One in His Place." On page 17, one paragraph says of the "faithful slave":

Their duties include receiving and passing on to all of Jehovah's earthly servants spiritual food at the proper time.

The spiritual food that is received must logically be sent by someone. The sender is implied to be Jehovah. Another paragraph on page 17 says:

How vital it is for everyone in God's family to submit loyally to the teachings and arrangements of the Great Theocrat, Jehovah, and his King-Son, Christ Jesus, as transmitted through the 'faithful slave' on earth!

A third paragraph, on page 24, says:

Jehovah has provided a goodly quantity of aids to Bible understanding in the form of publications....

To reinforce statements like these, articles often include warning examples of those who failed to submit to "theocratic order," such as the rebellion against Moses by Korah (December 1, 1981 Watchtower, p. 13) or by Miriam and Aaron (June 1, 1982 Watchtower, p. 17).

In the foreword to the 1961 edition of the New World Translation of the Holy Scriptures the translators described their work thus:

The translators who have a fear and love of the divine Author of the Holy Scriptures feel especially a responsibility toward Him to transmit his thoughts and declarations as accurately as possible.... It was with such a sense of solemn responsibility that the committee of dedicated men have produced the New World Translation.... In releasing it for publication we do so with a deep sense of gratitude to the Divine Author of the Holy Scriptures, who has thus privileged us and in whose spirit we have trusted to co-operate with us in this worthy work. [italics added]

The above information should be sufficient to show that the March 22 Awake!'s statement above is false: "Never in these instances, however, did they presume to originate predictions 'in the name of Jehovah.' Never did they say, 'These are the words of Jehovah.'" Although some qualifiers are made, they are lost among the strident tones of "authoritative teaching." Furthermore, the tests set out in Deuteronomy 18 do not include a claim of inspiration.

Let us return to Awake!'s main article. Note that the Watchtower quotation on the right below reveals the Society's expectations for the 1990s.

Undeterred by previous failures, some seem to have been spurred on by the approach of the year 2000 and have made further predictions of the end of the the world. The Wall Street Journal of December 5, 1989, published an article entitled "Millennium Fever: Prophets Proliferate, the End Is Near." With the year 2000 approaching, various evangelicals are predicting that Jesus is coming and that the 1990's will be "a time of troubles that has not been seen before." At the time of this writing, the latest occurrence was in the Republic of Korea, where the Mission for the Coming Days predicted that on October 28, 1992, at midnight, Christ would come and take believers to heaven. Several other doomsday groups made similar predictions. [g93 3/22 4]

The apostle Paul was spearheading the Christian missionary activity. He was also laying a foundation for a work that would be completed in our 20th century. [January 1, 1989 Watchtower, p. 12. The bound volume for 1989 changed "in our 20th century" to "in our day."]

With this prospect ahead, no wonder many have such eagerness for Jehovah's new world of righteousness to hurry up and replace this old one filled with sorrow, crime, sickness, and death! No wonder their eagerness is so great that they are prone to set early dates for its arrival! Now, however, there are not just bits and pieces of the sign of its incoming to tempt us into sounding false alarms. Now we can see the complete composite sign unfolding to give solid foundation for our eager expectation of this wicked world's end and Jehovah's new world to supplant it. [March 22, 1993 Awake!, p. 11]

This sounds like a description of the Society's prediction of 1975 as the end of the world. True, this was not explicitly predicted in official publications, but it was emphasized in public lectures at Kingdom Halls and larger assemblies around the world from 1966 through 1975. This informal channel is an effective means of distributing information the Society wants members to act upon but which it does not want to publish. This way it is difficult to later pin anything down since it was never part of "official" policy. Difficulties can easily be chalked up to overenthusiastic members.

The following is taken from a talk entitled "Serving with Everlasting Life In View," given at a circuit assembly in the spring of 1967 in Sheboygan, Wisconsin by a representative of the Society. It illustrates how much stronger were the pronouncements about 1975 that came through the informal channels. Without setting a specific date, the speaker emphasized the nearness of Armageddon. Speaking of the world to come after Armageddon, he said:

Well, now, who will be there, of us here tonight? For the Society has made application of this scripture, in pointing out that those of us among Jehovah's Witnesses that are not regularly associating with his people, without good cause, such as being flat on our back, will not be in the new order. And we're the ones that are going to come around when the doors close, and say 'I want in now. Sir, open to us!' And Jesus will have to say, 'I'm sorry, I don't even recognize you.' Now wouldn't that be an awful thing. Do you see now why the Society implores us, year in and year out, the same old thing, 'Brothers, get in the flock. Don't let any excuses get in our way. Nothing of any nature. There's only one thing that's going to count when that time comes, and that's that we are inside.' And we hope that all of us here tonight are going to listen to the Society's imploring. We're going to listen to the agonizing entreaty, 'Brothers get in!', because they know what's coming. And it's coming fast -- and don't wait till '75. The door is going to be shut before then.

Back to the March 22, 1993 Awake!:

The flood of false alarms is unfortunate. They are like the wolf-wolf cries of the shepherd boy -- people soon dismiss them, and when the true warning comes, it too is ignored.

This is quite amusing, coming from the "shepherd boy" himself. Since the Watchtower Society has cried 'wolf' so many times, why should it expect anyone to pay attention to it now? Nothing has changed in the hundred and twenty years since Russell and Barbour made their first predictions. None of their predictions came true nor did those of Russell's successors. If anything, by crying wolf the Watchtower Society may have made itself responsible for the deaths of many at Armageddon. It only adds to its grave responsibility before God by continuing to cover over its mistakes rather than honestly taking steps to tell people the full truth and doing whatever is necessary to make amends.

But why has there been such a tendency through the centuries and down to our day for false alarms to be sounded, as Jesus said they would be? (Matthew 24:23-26) Jesus, after telling his followers about different events that would mark his return, said to them, as we read at Matthew 24:36-42: "Concerning that day and hour nobody knows, neither the angels of the heavens nor the Son, but only the Father. For just as the days of Noah were, so the presence of the Son of man will be.... Keep on the watch, therefore, because you do not know on what day your Lord is coming."

Awake! is attempting to distance the Society from the stigma of false prediction. The scripture quoted should be sufficient to convince Christians to avoid setting dates for Christ's return, no matter how much they think they can predict it. Why can "God's channel of communication" not see this? Has God ceased communicating with his "channel?"

This is actually quite an amazing statement on the part of Awake!, for it is applying the injunction of Matt. 24:23-26 to itself: "For false Christs and false prophets will arise... so as to mislead, if possible, even the chosen ones." But because examples of false predictions by others have been offered to illustrate its points, Awake! obviously feels the typical reader will not realize that the Watchtower Society is the 20th century's foremost sounder of false alarms about Christ's return. The article further softens the impact of Matt. 24:23-26 by calling the predictions of false Christs and false prophets "false alarms" rather than false prophecies.

Awake! continues on page 4:

They were told not only to be on the watch and to be prepared but also to watch with eagerness. Romans 8:19 says: "For the eager expectation of the creation is waiting for the revealing of the sons of God." Human nature is such that when we fervently hope and yearn for something and wait in eager expectation of it, a powerful temptation arises within us to see it at the door even when the evidence is insufficient. In our eagerness false alarms may be sounded.

In a roundabout way, the Society is here admitting that it has sounded false alarms. Since Christ explicitly stated that trying to figure the date of his return would be futile, Awake!'s claim that eagerness excuses the misleading of millions of people is disingenuous. Awake!'s attempt to excuse the Society really is an admission that the Society's record of making predictions in God's name is no better than that of Christendom.

In the foreword to the 1916 edition of The Time Is At Hand Russell admitted that his predictions had not come to pass (p. x). Note the similarity of Awake!'s excuse to his:

The author acknowledges that in this book he presents the thought that the Lord's saints might expect to be with Him in glory at the ending of the Gentile Times. This was a natural mistake to fall into, but the Lord overruled it for the blessing of His people. The thought that the Church would all be gathered to glory before October, 1914, certainly did have a very stimulating and sanctifying effect upon thousands, all of whom accordingly can praise the Lord -- even for the mistake.

It is a sad commentary on the mental state of Jehovah's Witnesses that Awake! can so rightly expect that most of them will accept its excuses without blinking. Remember, all the prophetic speculations were presented as "food in due season," as coming through "God's channel," the "faithful and discreet slave." This "slave" claims special approval and guidance from Jehovah. It is God's "genuine prophet."

As Awake! points out, anyone may express an opinion. But men who claim to be God's spokesmen on earth do not have the right to express mere opinions while claiming that what they say is backed up by God's own Word and should be accepted as such. When statements are spread around the world as God's message for mankind, as spiritual "food in due season," those publishing them are neither "faithful" nor "discreet" if they express fallacious opinions, argue tenaciously for them, belittle any who disagree or, worse, question their loyalty and humility before God.

Furthermore, it is not just the explicit words that the Society has published that are important in this regard, but how the rank-and-file of Jehovah's Witnesses views them. When the "opinions" are published in millions of pieces of literature in scores of languages; when these "opinions" are systematically taught and promulgated by an army of Jehovah's Witnesses; when they must be learned, accepted and incorporated into one's beliefs; when the acceptance of them becomes a requirement for baptism; when questioning them can lead to censure or disfellowshipping; then such "opinions" are transformed into rigid, uncompromising dogma.

Can it be denied that the leaders of the Watchtower Society foster the acceptance of such dogma among Jehovah's Witnesses?

Awake! continues:

What, then, will distinguish the true warning from the false ones? For the answer, please see the following article.

Awake! argues so as to turn a liability into an asset. As marketing people often say when faced with selling a less than perfect product, "if you can't fix it, feature it." However, we will see that the Society's doctrines about 1914 and the end of the world are so broken they cannot be fixed. Awake!'s second article is a stripped down rehash of the "composite sign" of Christ's "presence" and presents nothing new. How can anyone distinguish this latest claim that the Society is not crying 'wolf' from the others, especially when the arguments are the same? The only difference is that here the Society does not specify a particular date. The Watchtower Society appears incapable of learning from its mistakes.

"Whoever has even once become notorious by base fraud, even if he speaks the truth, gains no belief." -- Phaedrus, Fables

Part 3: Unassailable Proofs

Overview:

Introduction

"One deceit needs many others, and so the whole house is built in the air and must soon come to the ground." -- Baltasar Gracian, The Art of Worldly Wisdom

The second article in the March 22 Awake! series is entitled "A Composite Sign of Many Parts" and begins on page 5:

A fable from India tells of six blind men from Indostan who went to see an elephant. The first one touched its side and said: "Bless me! but the elephant is very like a wall!" The second one touched its tusk and said: "An elephant is very like a spear!" The third touched its trunk and said: "The elephant is very like a snake!" The fourth reached out and felt its knee and said: "Tis clear enough the elephant is very like a tree!" The fifth touched its ear and said: "This marvel of an elephant is very like a fan!" The sixth seized its tail and said: "I see the elephant is very like a rope!" The six blind men disputed long and loud about what an elephant was like, but no one gave a correct description. Incomplete information did not give a complete picture.

A similar problem arises when it comes to identifying the sign of Christ's return. In response to his disciples' question: "What will be the sign of your presence and of the conclusion of the system of things?" Jesus answered: "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; and there will be great earthquakes, and in one place after another pestilences and food shortages." (Matthew 24:3; Luke 21:10, 11) But when only these things are cited as proof that Christ returned in 1914, people object: "Oh, we've always had wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes!" And they are right.

Right off the bat this paragraph neglects many important points. First, Jehovah's Witnesses and related sects are the only ones who claim that the Greek word parousia means "presence" rather than coming.8 Second, in the Society's usual fashion the writer quotes Matthew 24 verses 3 and 7 but neglects to mention verses 4 through 6, which say:

And in answer Jesus said to them: "Look out that nobody misleads you; for many will come on the basis of my name, saying, 'I am the Christ,' and will mislead many. You are going to hear of wars and reports of wars; see that you are not terrified. For these things must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation ....

So the context of Matthew 24 indicates exactly the opposite of what the Society claims. In response to the question: "What will be the sign of your presence....?" Jesus answered: "Look out that nobody misleads you.... You are going to hear of wars and reports of wars.... For these things must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation...." So Jesus was warning his disciples not to be misled by events such as wars, and he gave this warning before he answered their question about the sign. Verses 7 through 12, which the Society interprets as being part of Jesus' description of the sign of his coming, are logically and textually part of his warning about things that could mislead the disciples, and contain descriptions of potentially misleading events that would occur before the end. Only after this warning and description, during which Jesus says nothing about a sign, does he say in verse 14, "and then the end will come." It is not until verse 30 that Jesus actually describes the sign the disciples asked about. So Matthew 24:4-12 is not Jesus' statement of how to recognize the "sign," but of how not to be misled about things some might be inclined to think of as a "sign."

Jesus' explanation might be rephrased thus: "Since wars, famines, earthquakes and other troubles will regularly characterize man's history in the future, as they have in the past, such things should not be understood as signs of my coming and of the end of the age." He probably said this because of the Jewish apocalyptic writers of his day, who were predicting the Messiah's advent along with many calamities, signs and portents including war, famine, pestilence and earthquakes. The disciples may have had such things in mind when they asked Jesus about the "sign," and he attempted to straighten out their thinking.

This is the opinion of many Bible commentators today, and is well summarized by several statements from early Watch Towers. Most Jehovah's Witnesses would be surprised to know that C. T. Russell held exactly the opposite opinion to what the society he founded holds today. Russell based his time prophecies on his interpretation of bible chronology, not on the accounts in Matthew 24, Mark 13 and Luke 21. The March, 1884 Watch Tower (p. 7; p. 605 Reprints) printed a reader's question and Russell's answer:

Does Matt. 24:6 teach that "Wars and rumors of wars" are a sign of the end of the Gospel Age?

A. No; we think not. Wars and rumors of wars have characterized earth's history, with varying frequency and cruelty, ever since the fall of man. But the Scriptures assure us that the time of the end of the Gospel Age, or end of the dominion of the "prince of this world," will witness a more general and widespread warfare than was ever known before, involving all the powers of earth....

So also famines and pestilences and earthquakes are not to be regarded specially as signs of the end. Though they will doubtless be frequent, and perhaps more so in the time of the end, like wars have been a part of Satan's policy from the first.

An article in the September, 1884 Watch Tower (p. 3; p. 661 Reprints) said:

Now consider the subject of the signs of the times. Remarks on this subject are too often made which betray a want of intelligent comprehension of the nature of the signs that are according to Scripture to indicate the "time of the end." A careless reading of our Lord's prophetic discourse on the Mount of Olives seems to be the cause of much of this misapprehension. His predictions of wars and rumors of wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes, are quoted as if they and such like things were to be the signs of the end of the age. A little accurate attention to the order of his statements would at once show that, so far from this being the case, he mentions these as the characteristic and common events of the entire interval prior to his coming. Wars and calamities, persecution and apostasy, martyrdom, treachery, abounding iniquity, Gospel preaching, the fall of Jerusalem, the great tribulation of Israel, which has, as we know, extended over 1,800 years; all these things were to fill the interval, not to be signs of the immediate proximity of the second advent. How could things of common, constant occurrence be in themselves signs of any uncommon and unique crisis?

What commoner all through the ages than wars and rumors of wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes? These, as marking the course of the age, can never indicate its close....

.... No, there was nothing special to alarm the antediluvians before the day that Noah entered into the ark; nothing special to startle the men of Sodom ere the fire from heaven fell; and like as it was in those days, so will it be in these. All going on just as usual, no single sign to attract the world's attention. "None of the wicked shall understand" the true state of affairs, only the "wise" enlightened by the word of prophecy.

Even after 1914, Russell, and therefore the Watchtower Society, kept to this view. In the 1916 edition of Studies in the Scriptures, Vol. 4, The Battle of Armageddon, page 566, he said:

Thus briefly did our Lord summarize secular history and teach the disciples not to expect very soon his second coming and glorious kingdom. And how aptly: surely the world's history is just this, an account of wars, intrigues, famines and pestilences -- little else.

It was only after World War I ended, thus not fulfilling the Society's prediction that it would turn into Armageddon by 1918 that the process of spiritualizing all the unfulfilled expectations began. This included reinterpreting the Gospel accounts of Christ's return in a way opposite to Russell's understanding, so that the signs the Society had said were "the characteristic and common events of the entire interval prior" to Christ's parousia now became diagnostic of the parousia itself.

But it should be clear that if such signs are capable of such flexible interpretations and applications as the Society and others have given, certainly they cannot be used to prove that Christ has been invisibly present since 1914 and that the "time of the end" began at that time.

These things become much clearer when one reads the parallel accounts in Mark 13 and Luke 21, especially in a Bible other than the New World Translation. Let's see how the New American Standard version renders these:

And as He was going out of the temple, one of His disciples said to Him, "Teacher, behold what wonderful stones and what wonderful buildings! And Jesus said to him, "Do you see these great buildings? Not one stone shall be left upon another which will not be torn down." And as He was sitting on the Mount of Olives opposite the temple, Peter and James and John and Andrew were questioning Him privately, "Tell us, when will these things be, and what will be the sign when all these things are going to be fulfilled? And Jesus began to say to them, "See to it that no one misleads you. Many will come in My name, saying, 'I am He!' and will mislead many. And when you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be frightened; those things must take place; but that is not yet the end. For nation will arise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be earthquakes in various places; there will also be famines. These things are merely the beginning of birth pangs." (Mark 13:1-8)

And while some were talking about the temple, that it was adorned with beautiful stones and votive gifts, He said, "As for these things which you are looking at, the days will come in which there will not be left one stone upon another which will not be torn down." And they questioned Him, saying, "Teacher, when therefore will these things be? And what will be the sign when these things are about to take place?" And He said, "See to it that you be not misled; for many will come in My name, saying, 'I am He,' and, 'The time is at hand';9 do not go after them. And when you hear of wars and disturbances, do not be terrified; for these things must take place first, but the end does not follow immediately." Then He continued by saying to them, "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be great earthquakes, and in various places plagues and famines; and there will be terrors and great signs from heaven." (Luke 21:5-11)

These parallel accounts illustrate the importance of the point that when the disciples asked their question they were not asking about some far-off future event. Rather, they were asking about the destruction of the temple, and they did not have in mind some invisible presence, but a visible advent. Jesus took no steps to change their understanding. This is verified by the way the account in Mark 13 frames their question about the "sign," which clearly refers to the destruction of the temple only. It certainly is impossible to think that they needed some "sign" to convince them that the temple had been destroyed or that its destruction was taking place. They wanted some indication in advance of that event. The New English Bible shows clearly this is the intent in its rendering of Mark 13:4:

'Tell us,' they said, 'when will this happen? What will be the sign when the fulfillment of all this is at hand?'

Most English bibles render Mark 13:4 and Luke 21:7 something like "what will be the sign when these things are about to occur."

The Watchtower Society considers this a very important point, because it has taken pains to render Mark 13:4 and Luke 21:7 in the New World Translation consistently with its doctrine of Christ's "presence," but different from virtually all other translations. These read respectively:

Tell us, When will these things be, and what will be the sign when all these things are destined to come to a conclusion? -- Mark 13:4.

Teacher, when will these things actually be, and what will be the sign when these things are destined to occur? -- Luke 21:7.

The Society's rendering, "what will be the sign when all these things are destined to come to a conclusion," implies that the "sign" would be some sort of a guarantee that the things spoken of would occur. Precisely when they would occur is not implied, and the sense of time, especially the immediacy, the sense that the things are on the point of occurring, is lost. This causes the reader to interpret the verses consistently with the Society's view of Christ's "presence" -- that there would be a first coming in 1914 at the end of the Gentile times, and later, "the end" would come. The disciples who asked the question already had Jesus' word as the guarantee that "these things" would be done. Therefore they did not need a future "sign" as an additional guarantee. In light of this argument, the Society's rendering does not make sense, and should be rejected on that basis alone. This goes along with the point that, since the disciples did not know in advance that Jesus' parousia would be invisible, they could not have been asking about a sign that would allow recognition of such an invisible presence. They wanted a sign of when things were about to occur.

Contextually the Society's rendering of these scriptures makes no sense. But even textually the New World Translation has little justification for its rendering. This can be easily seen by comparing Mark 13:4 and Luke 21:7 with Rev. 10:7 in the Society's Kingdom Interlinear Translation of the Greek Scriptures. In the New World Translation they read:

Tell us, When will these things be, and what will be the sign when all these things are destined to come to a conclusion?

Teacher, when will these things actually be, and what will be the sign when these things are destined to occur?

in the days of the sounding of the seventh angel, when he is about to blow his trumpet

Now compare these to the rendering from the 1985 Kingdom Interlinear:

whenever may-be-about these-(things) to-be-concluded

whenever may-be-about these-(things) to-be-occurring

whenever he-may-be-about to-be-trumpeting

It is evident that the New World Translation is inconsistent in rendering the Greek expression. It is even inconsistent with the renderings in all the other Bible translations the Society has ever sold or quoted in support of its doctrine of Christ's "presence." Contrast this with how the Society boasts how consistent it is in rendering parousia as "presence" in every occurrence. The textual difficulties discussed here are an indication of why the Society hardly ever quotes Mark 13:4 or Luke 21:7 directly, but instead quotes Matt. 24:3 and uses the first two only as supporting references.

Proof By Assertion

Returning now to Awake!, we see that the writer, having thoroughly misunderstood Matthew, is off to a bad start start and unable to argue sensibly. Continuing on page 5:

These few things -- although creating heretofore unequaled distress -- are not for many people sufficient to mark Christ's return; more is needed to make the sign complete, unmistakable. When proclamations that the world's end is at hand are made on skimpy evidence, on just one or a few of the parts of the sign that are seen, false alarms are the result. What is needed are all the features Jesus gave relative to his return, not just one or a few. What he gave to mark his presence was a composite sign, one made up of enough features to make the sign certain, a combination of several different parts that, taken all together, make it unmistakable.

As an example of a composite sign, consider the one that is given in the Bible to identify Jesus as the Messiah at the time of his first coming. It involved many events relative to the Messiah that were given in the Hebrew Scriptures. Jesus had told his disciples about some of these texts, but they had not understood their import. The disciples, like the Jews generally, wanted a Messiah who would overthrow Rome and rule the world with them as associates. So when he died, they were confused and devastated. After Jesus was resurrected, he met with them and said: "'These are my words which I spoke to you while I was yet with you, that all the things written in the law of Moses and in the Prophets and Psalms about me must be fulfilled.' Then he opened up their minds fully to grasp the meaning of the Scriptures." -- Luke 24:44, 45.

According to the Kingdom Interlinear translation of verse 45, Jesus did this by "putting together the Scriptures" from the Hebrew portion of the Bible that foretold the events and circumstances of the life of the promised Messiah who was to come, and he placed them alongside the events of Jesus' life that had fulfilled them. Later on, the apostle Paul used this same method when "explaining and proving by references" that Jesus was the Messiah. (Acts 17:3) Again, it is the Kingdom Interlinear that clarifies the process by saying that he did so by "opening up thoroughly and putting alongside" the Messianic prophecies in the Hebrew Scriptures the events of Jesus' life that fulfilled them. The accompanying box gives the substance of many of these Hebrew prophecies that were fulfilled by the events of Jesus' life and that proved that he was the foretold Messiah. It illustrates what constitutes a composite sign.

A sidebox was presented on page 7 that showed many prophecies given in the Hebrew Scriptures that were fulfilled by Jesus. It should be noted that, in contrast to the Society's notion of a "composite sign," the basic prophetic interpretations were made by the inspired Bible writers or by Jesus himself.

Next in Awake! is a subsection on page 5 entitled "The Composite Sign of Christ's Presence":

It is just such a composite sign that marks the time of Jesus' second coming, or, more accurately, his presence. The Greek word parousi'a that many translations render "coming" at Matthew 24:3 does not mean a time when he would come or arrive but means that he has already arrived and is on hand, is present. In Jesus' case it means that he is invisibly present as Jehovah's enthroned King and is reigning from heaven. This is in keeping with Jesus' statement at John 14:19: "A little longer and the world will behold me no more." Since he would not be physically visible, he gave a sign that would indicate his return and invisible presence as Jehovah's reigning King.

The writer gives no evidence substantiating his claim about the meaning of parousia. The quotation of John 14:19 gets into an area where words can be bandied about endlessly with no resolution. There is simply no proof in the Bible about any particular interpretation of precisely how Jesus would be seen or not be seen after his death and resurrection, but at least we can check for consistency with other verses. To illustrate, Matt. 24:30 says:

And then the sign of the Son of man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will beat themselves in lamentation, and they will see the Son of man coming on the clouds of heaven with power and great glory.

See also Mark 13:26, Luke 21:27 and Rev. 1:7. The Society reasonably points out that people will see "the Son of man coming on the clouds of heaven" with the eye of discernment (Revelation -- Its Grand Climax At Hand, pp. 19-20), but there is wide latitude in just what "discernment" may mean. When Jesus appears in such a manner as to cause "all the tribes of the earth" to "beat themselves in lamentation," it will take little discernment to "see" him, even though he might not be seen in the flesh. Therefore, John 14:19 has no bearing on Christ's parousia. In fact, if we accept the idea that Christ will be seen with the "eye of discernment," the physical visibility of Christ has absolutely nothing to do with the question of whether parousia means "coming" or "presence."

Awake! continues on page 5:

The sign he gave did not have just one feature or a few features. It had many that were to be taken together as a composite sign, just as was the case with the composite sign at the time of his first coming as Messiah. Thus, with many features or events, he unmistakably signifies his invisible presence at this time as Jehovah's reigning King enthroned in heaven but extending his power and influence to the affairs of earth. False alarms may result when only one or two of these features are stressed rather than the many features that make up the composite sign. It is like the six blind men from Indostan, each one of whom jumped to a wrong conclusion because of feeling only one part of the elephant's anatomy.

Awake! seems to be implying that when the Watchtower Society made false end-of-the-world predictions it had not been considering all the evidence, and had only been stressing "one or two of these features." But more likely, Awake! is trying to distance the Society from these false predictions in the mind of the reader. Continuing:

The fulfillment of this composite sign given by Jesus, plus some additional conditions given by three of the apostles, began in a remarkable way from 1914 onward. A digest of these various features along with their fulfillments follows.

Awake! here explicitly states that all of the following features of the "composite sign" began in 1914. To prove that any particular supposed "feature" is not a feature it will suffice to show that the feature is the same after 1914 as it was before 1914. We will do this for nearly every "sign," and show that there is an excellent basis for the objection that Awake! stated above: "But when only these things are cited as proof that Christ returned in 1914, people object: 'Oh, we've always had wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes!' And they are right."

Note, in the list of "features" about to be given by Awake!, that the ones attributed to Jesus include those he warned against being misled by. Note also that the "additional conditions given by three of the apostles" must somehow be tied in with Jesus' prophecies. Awake! accomplishes this by simple assertion.

It is extremely significant that in these articles Awake! does not emphasize that the various features are far worse than in times past. Most of the descriptions of individual signs imply it, but Awake! nowhere states it. The closest Awake! comes is to say on page 8 that "their magnitude also adds weight." This is a major break with many past discussions of the "composite sign," where claims for earthquakes such as, "in comparison with the previous 2,000 years, the average per year has been 20 times as great since 1914," have been made.10 The Society has surely begun grasping at straws.

Interestingly, the Society began to tone down its claims about the severity of the features of the "composite sign" after about 1985. For example, the January 15, 1987 Watchtower, page 21-2, acknowledged that "many seismologists believe that earthquakes are no greater or more frequent now than they were in the past....11 Records of earthquakes before 1914 are not complete, however. And earlier generations did not have scientific means of measurement that would permit us reliably to compare the magnitudes of earthquakes past and present." Then followed a discussion that tried to make "earthquake distress" be the focal point of the supposed increase. The October 15, 1988 Watchtower, page 3, claimed that, according to data listed in two books (the data was acknowledged to be incomplete), earthquakes have been much worse since 1914, but "even granting that records from past centuries are incomplete, we cannot escape the conclusion that in our time mankind has been greatly affected by earthquakes." An April 8, 1988 Awake! article, on page 4, was very significant in that it made no mention at all that earthquakes are more severe than in earlier times. In fact, with respect to all the features of the "sign:"

Let us remember that while Jesus' prophecy indicates a climax in man's history as all these events come together in the same generation, they do not require that they be greater in number or magnitude than in any previous generation, even though that might be so.

However, the April 1, 1991 Watchtower (p. 6) reverted to the previous position.

The different features of the composite sign foretold by Jesus have never before been fulfilled all together in such a short period of time with such intensity and with such far-reaching consequences.

Of course, no data was provided in support. The effect of this vagueness about claims of the intensity of various features of the "sign" is that no one can say for sure whether what is being claimed is true or not. If a particular feature is claimed to be intense, but subsequent research shows that it is the same as it has always been, it can still be claimed in support of the feature. This means that the claims cannot be falsified, because they are true independent of any data. This makes such arguments logically valueless.

The tendency for the Society to drift toward vagueness and to shift the focus of discussion when hard data has proven its position untenable is painfully evident in the article "Natural Disasters -- A Sign of the Times?" in the December 1, 1993 Watchtower. Finally admitting that earthquake frequency has always been the same,12 the article buries this admission in an avalanche of arguments that try to show that natural disasters of all sorts, even ones Jesus never mentioned, are on the increase. Presenting almost no data to support its contention that these are increasing, the article does little more than quote a few sources that say such disasters have been increasing since the 1960s. Interestingly, the article makes no claim that such things have increased since 1914. The arguments reduce to simple assertions that an increase in population-related disasters along with a heightened perception of them fulfills Jesus' prophecy of Matthew 24:3-14. It claims without any supporting data whatsoever that natural disasters are increasing above and beyond what might be expected due to an increased population alone. The closest it comes to providing supporting data is to compare the earthquake death rate in Japan with that in Peru from 1960 to 1981. It never compares the death rate due to earthquakes in our own time with that in any other period, because such a comparison shows that the rate in the 20th century is statistically indistinguishable from any other, as shown below in the discussion on earthquakes. Clearly, the Society has replaced substantive discussion with chasing after the wind.

Let us look at a recent example of a "natural disaster" and see if it can be made to fit Jesus' words in Matthew 24. During October and November 1993, many wildfires burned thousands of acres of California housing developments. A few decades earlier there were no homes in those areas. Can it reasonably be argued that poor planning -- building in areas where wildfires normally occur -- and its results are a fulfillment of the "sign of the last days"? It seems clear that only someone grasping at straws would do so. Likewise with most of the other supposed signs.

"Negotiating with de Valera... is like trying to pick up mercury with a fork." -- Earl Lloyd-George, Eamon de Valera

Many Unassailable Proofs:

War

On page 6 Awake! begins to list features of the "composite sign:"

"Nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom." (Matthew 24:7) World War I began in 1914 with 28 nations involved, 14 million people killed. World War II followed with 59 nations involved, 50 million people killed.

As shown above, this is a misapplication of Jesus' words, because he was warning against precisely this interpretation of events. The Society has often said that Matthew 24:7 points especially to world war. That the scripture does not do so can be seen by considering verse 6 together with verse 7: "You are going to hear of wars and reports of wars.... For nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom." Since, as the May 1, 1975 Watchtower said on page 274, "Jesus' expression 'nation against nation and kingdom against kingdom' also had a first-century application, so it is not limited to world wars," the verses apply equally well to all wars. Therefore the Society cannot say that Jesus predicted world wars, although he may have had it in mind. As stated earlier, understanding Jesus' words of verse 4, "Look out that nobody misleads you" as a warning not to interpret the common misfortunes of humanity as a sign of his coming, avoids these difficulties.

As to the war of 1914-1918 being the first "world war," note what several historians say. The War of the Spanish Succession (1702-1713) was "the first that can be called a 'world war,' because it involved the overseas world together with the leading powers of Europe." The Seven Years' War (1756-1763) "was to a greater degree than the War of the Austrian Succession [1740-1748] a world war" which "came to embrace all the four continents of the world and all the great oceans." The American War of Independence (1775-1783) turned into a general global conflict:

.... what had started as an American revolution against England had exploded into a worldwide war. French and Spanish fleets fought the British in the English Channel, the West Indies and Gibraltar. The Spanish captured West Florida. Russia, Denmark, Sweden and Prussia joined to break England's blockade on France and Spain. Holland, too, ran naval stores to France, and supplied America so abundantly from the West Indies that England declared war on her. Their two navies fought to a standstill in the North Sea. England's line of ships and men was now stretched thin to circle the globe. [Irving Stone, Those Who Love, Doubleday & Company, New York, 1965, pp. 311-2]

The Napoleonic Wars (1792-1815) began right after the French Revolution and comprised the fourth world war that began in the 18th century. One world history book said:

It is convenient to think of the fighting from 1792 to 1814 as a 'world war,' as indeed it was, affecting not only all of Europe but places as remote as Spanish America, where the wars of independence began, or the interior of North America, where the United States purchased Louisiana in 1803 and attempted a conquest of Canada in 1812. [Palmer & Colton, A History of the Modern World to 1815, fifth edition, New York, 1978, pp. 382-3]

With regard to the wars that followed the Napoleonic wars another historian said:

None of these, however, was a world war of the type of those of the first fifteen years of the nineteenth century [the Napoleonic wars during 1801-1815] which had involved not only all Europe but in a lesser degree every continent of the globe. [Cyril Falls, A Hundred Years of War, London, 1953, p. 161]

From the above quotations it is evident there is leeway in saying just what a "world war" is. The wars described involved mostly Europe whereas other areas were ancillary. World War I was similar:

However, all in all, it can be said that the war in theatres outside Europe was of minor strategical importance. The 1914/18 war was essentially a European war. It came later to be called a 'world war' because contingents from many parts of the British empire served in Europe, and because the United States joined the Entente Powers in 1917. But in reality, since the role of sea power was mostly passive, this was less a 'world war' than some previous conflicts such as the Seven Years' War.... Whereas the 1914/18 war could hardly be called a world conflict, there can be no such thought about the war brought on by Hitler in 1939. [Viscount Montgomery, A History of Warfare, pp. 470, 497]

With regard to the actual number of countries involved in World War I, the most that can be said to have been involved in some way is 33, not the 28 Awake! stated. But many of these played only a minor role, so the number of active participants is more like fifteen.

What about the death toll from World War I? Did it exceed that from any previous wars? The answer depends on what is included. Are only soldiers counted, or civilians as well? What about auxiliary things like disease related to war? Awake!'s figure of 14 million appears to include 9 million direct battle related deaths plus 5 million civilian casualties, and is reasonable. As to whether this exceeded the death toll of previous wars, note the following historical information:

The conquest of Northern China in 1211-1218 by Genghis Khan is estimated to have cost 18 million Chinese lives. The Thirty Years' War (1618-1648) was an international conflict involving about 10 nations and is estimated to have killed about 2-3 million soldiers. However, in Germany alone, some 7-8 million civilians were killed, and figures are not available for civilians killed elsewhere. In 1644 the Manchus invaded China and in the ensuing conflict an estimated 25 million were killed. In the Napoleonic Wars some 5-6 million died. The Taiping Rebellion in China (1850-1864) was a civil war in which anywhere from 20 to 40 million died. The higher figure is given in the March 22, 1982 Awake!, page 7.

What is the point? This: The war which has come to be called World War I was neither greater nor more destructive than many previous wars. That honor goes to World War II, so any claims about great wars ought to consider 1939 or 1945 as being special, not 1914. Of course, the Society will have none of that.

The most that can be said is that World War I was the most destructive "world war" up to that time in terms of raw numbers of deaths. However, on a percentage basis, some previous world wars were equal or greater. Assuming 14 million killed in World War I and a world population of 1.8 billion, we get a death rate of about 780 per hundred thousand of total population. With a world population of about 900 million around 1810, the death rate of the Napoleonic Wars works out to about 600 per hundred thousand. Assuming an equal number killed outside Germany in the Thirty Years' War, and a world population of 500 million in the 17th century (see Awake!, Sept. 8, 1967, p. 4), the death rate is about 4000 per hundred thousand. Which of these should be considered the "greatest" war?

So, World War II was the most destructive war of all time by any measure, and World War I was about equal to the most destructive wars up to then. Other data show that overall, wars in the 20th century are comparable to those in the 17th through 19th centuries, and so there has been no particular change, certainly not since 1914. Two statements by historians of war indicate this:

We must be careful to remember that this hypothesis has not really been confirmed, and that there may actually be no trend at all. Unlikely as it sounds, there may have been no significant change over time in the incidence of peace and war and in the casualties of violence. Peace and war may occur about as frequently and last as long as they ever did; casualties may also be very comparable to what they have always been. [Francis Beer, How Much War in History: Definitions, Estimates, Extrapolations and Trends, Beverly Hills, 1974, pp. 46-7]

Is war on the increase, as many scholars as well as laymen of our generation have been inclined to believe? The answer would seem to be a very unambiguous negative. Whether we look at the number of wars, their severity or magnitude, there is no significant trend upward or down over the past 150 years. Even if we examine their intensities, we find that later wars are by and large no different from those of earlier periods. [J. David Singer and Melvin Small, The Wages of War 1816-1965, New York, 1972, p. 201]

Whatever claims or counterclaims may be made, one thing is clear: Jesus' statement about wars has been fulfilled -- but not just in the 20th century or just since 1914. It has come true in every generation since his day and up through the present. He made a simple statement that there would be wars and rumors of wars, with nation rising against nation and kingdom against kingdom. This has happened repeatedly throughout human history. Adding anything to Jesus' words is pure speculation. The Watchtower Society's attempts to limit Jesus' words to only the 20th century are a failure, because its claims are contradicted by the overwhelming evidence of history.

Pestilence

Awake! continues on page 7:

"In one place after another pestilences." (Luke 21:11) As World War I ended, some 21 million people were felled by the Spanish flu. Since then, heart disease, cancer, AIDS, and other pestilences have killed hundreds of millions. [g93 3/22 7]

"And no bells tolled and nobody wept no matter what his loss because almost everyone expected death.... And people said and believed, 'This is the end of the world.'" -- An Italian chronicler writing on the effects of the Black Death in the 14th century. [quoted in April 8, 1988 Awake! p. 3]

Note that Awake! includes heart disease and cancer among the pestilences of our time. But this is grasping at straws because heart disease and cancer are not "pestilences." The use of any word depends on its generally accepted meaning. In English, "pestilence" implies a rapidly spreading epidemic disease such as smallpox or bubonic plague. The Greek word loimos, translated in Luke 21:11 as "pestilence," means a "deadly infectious malady" according to Vine's Expository Dictionary of Biblical Words. The Society's Bible dictionary Insight on the Scriptures, Vol. 1, page 617, gives the definition of "pestilence" as: "Any rapidly spreading infectious disease capable of attaining epidemic proportions and of causing death." The Bible uses other words when speaking of diseases in general as opposed to pestilences.

Obviously, cancer and heart disease are not pestilences, even according to the Society's own Bible dictionary, so Awake! is dishonest in claiming they are. The argument is grasping at straws because the writer is reduced to claiming diseases that used to be those of old age are "pestilences." The main reason cancer and heart disease are prevalent today is that the advances of medicine since the end of the 19th century have reduced "pestilences" so greatly that many more people live to be old enough to die from age related diseases rather than infectious diseases. This is shown by the drastic decrease in child mortality in the more developed countries in the 20th century.

It can even be argued that by calling cancer and heart disease "pestilences," the writer of Awake! shows he knows very well that true pestilences have decreased since 1914. This is true because if all diseases can also be termed pestilences, then any change in what diseases people generally die from will have almost no effect on the death rate due to disease. This is simply because if people do not die of a pestilence in youth they will die of another disease in old age. Cancer and heart disease tend to be diseases of old age. Therefore, interpreting Jesus' statement about pestilence as referring to disease in general results in nothing measurable and is of no value as a sign.

The fact is that, because of medical advances, epidemic disease plays a minor role in the 20th century compared to what it did in earlier times. While AIDS has become notorious in the 1980s, even it doesn't very well fit the definition of pestilence since it mostly attacks people who engage in avoidable forms of behavior. Pestilence in the Biblical sense strikes everyone equally and without warning, and AIDS has certainly not been evident for most of the 20th century. Some other true "pestilences" have lately been increasing, but most epidemic diseases are simply not something the average person lives in fear of.

This contrasts greatly with times past. In 542-543 the "plague of Justinian" killed some 100 million people. In the 14th century the Black Death killed an estimated 75 to 125 million people in six years -- about one-sixth to one-fourth the population of the known world. Some cities and villages were virtually depopulated. Because so many were killed, many historians have called the Black Death the most lethal disaster in recorded history short of the Flood. One historian noted:

The impact of the Black Death, the greatest ecological upheaval, has been compared to that of the two world wars of the twentieth century. To a degree this is true. But the Black Death... wrought even more essential change.... The effects of this natural and human disaster changed Europe profoundly, perhaps more so than any other series of events. For this reason, alone, the Black Death should be ranked as the greatest biological-environmental event in history, and one of the major turning points of Western Civilization. [Robert S. Gottfried, The Black Death, 1983, p. 163]

Nothing even remotely like these plagues has occurred in the 20th century. While the Spanish flu killed some 21 million people in 1918, that was only about one-hundredth the world's population. If the Society's claims about pestilence were correct, surely we would now see the worst pestilences of all time and live in constant fear of them.

Food Shortages

Now back to Awake!:

"There will be food shortages." (Matthew 24:7) The greatest famine in all history struck after World War I. Another terrible one followed World War II, and now malnutrition affects one fifth of the world's population. Annually, some 14 million children die from malnutrition. [g93 3/22 7]

The greatest recorded famine of all time... struck China between 1878 and 1879.... Estimates of the number of Chinese who died in that famine vary from 9 to 13 million. [The Watchtower, April 15, 1983, page 3]

It seems as if the left hand does not know what the right is doing in the Society's writing department. The question begs to be asked, Does either hand know what it's doing at all? But, even the 1983 Watchtower is incorrect. The Chinese famine of 1849 took nearly 14 million lives, and the famine that struck India in 1769-1770 may have killed tens of millions.

It should be noted that there is a great difference between the gross food shortages, or famine, implied by the Bible writer, and malnutrition. There are very many people earthwide who are malnourished in the sense they don't receive enough of the right type of food, but there are far fewer that are actually starving and fit the term used by Matthew. In times past nearly everyone was malnourished in some way. Vitamin deficiencies such as caused ricketts and scurvy were nearly universal, and this situation has been rectified only in the more developed nations. This is clearly not what the Bible writer referred to. Rather, he was talking about acute catastrophes of famine. This sort of famine has occurred all throughout human history, so the point is whether acute famine is much worse in the 20th century than in previous ones.

As with the claim of pestilence, it is not difficult to show that famines have decreased greatly in the 20th century compared to prior ones. Four famines struck China in 1810, 1811, 1846 and 1849, and killed at least 45 million. Cannibalism was reported to be rampant. All told, some 100 million people starved to death in China alone in the 19th century. What about the 20th century? In 1958-1961 a severe famine struck China, in which anywhere from 8 to 30 million died. Perhaps another 5 million in China have died in the 20th century. So China, whose population in the 20th century is more than double what it was in the 19th, has experienced significantly less famine in both absolute and relative terms in the 20th century. In almost every country of Europe and the Americas, famine became almost unknown by the mid-20th century. In much of the rest of the world it is the same as it has always been. The most severe famines in nearly every part of the world occurred before 1914. While malnutrition is certainly a problem and famines still occur, the situation was well described in 1975 by one food expert: "We might be inclined to deduce from the pictorial evidence of famine that we have seen recently on television, in newspapers, and in magazines that the world is more prone to famine now than it used to be. But the evidence is clearly to the contrary.... There has been a rather substantial reduction in the incidence of famine during the past century." For this reason, when famine does strike it is big news.

Part 4: More Unassailable Proofs

Overview:

Earthquakes

"[The War Office kept three sets of figures:] one to mislead the public, another to mislead the Cabinet, and the third to mislead itself." -- Alistair Horne, Price of Glory

Awake! continues:

"There will be great earthquakes." (Luke 21:11) Earthquakes after 1914 -- consider a few major ones. In 1915, in Italy, 32,610 lives lost; 1920, China, 200,000 killed; 1923, Japan, 143,000 killed; 1939, Turkey, 32,700 killed; 1970, Peru, 66,800 killed; 1976, China, 240,000 (some say 800,000) killed; 1988, Armenia, 25,000 killed. [g93 3/22 7]

Earthquakes after 1714 -- consider a few major ones. In 1721, in Iran, 100,000 lives lost; 1727, Iran, 77,000 killed; 1730, China, 100,000 killed; 1730, Japan; 137,000 killed; 1731, China, 100,000 killed; 1737, India, 300,000 killed; 1755, Portugal, 60,000 killed; 1780, Iran, 100,000 killed; 1783, Italy, 60,000 killed.

Professional seismologists are unaware of any difference in the number of earthquakes before or after 1914, and the Society cannot or will not cite any who agree with its claims. If one looks at typical listings of earthquakes one may find that there appears to have been a large increase in earthquakes in the 20th century compared to prior centuries, but this seeming increase is due to three things: (1) Old records are incomplete. (2) Modern seismographs began to be systematically installed around the world in 1897, and a major effort was completed in the early 1960s to upgrade seismograph stations around the world with the latest automatic recording equipment. (3) It takes a great deal of effort to obtain reasonably complete earthquake listings, and most seismologists who write popular books containing such listings are unwilling to invest the time. So any seeming increase in earthquake activity is due to a lack of complete records and to worldwide instrument monitoring since 1897. Modern records include earthquakes far out to sea, which would have passed unnoticed in earlier times.

Earthquakes seem to occur pretty much at random, so there can be major statistical fluctuations in frequency. For example, the two decades prior to 1914, from 1894 through 1913, had a total of 57 quakes of magnitude 8 and up, while the 73 years from 1914 through 1986 had 105 such quakes. That means on average twice the number of large quakes occurred per year in the 20 years before 1914 as in all the years since. When all earthquakes from magnitude 7 and up are checked for those years, one decade is statistically indistinguishable from any other.13 A plot of the number of earthquakes occurring in a given year versus time looks very much like a stock market chart. Like such a chart, if the time period under examination is short enough, trends can seem to appear. In 1986, one seismologist wrote, "There are indications that worldwide seismic activity -- if expressed in terms of earthquakes with magnitude 7 or over -- has decreased steadily in the time from the beginning of the 20th century until now."14

Compare the above discussion with the plots of number of earthquakes per year below. The data for these plots were taken from the NEIS CDROM database. The data for the magnitude 8 and 7 quakes were checked to eliminate duplicate quakes.

The plot of magnitude 8 quakes clearly shows the large temporary increase in frequency of magnitude 8 quakes up through 1920.

          Magnitude 8 and higher earthquakes        
   |-----------------------------------------------|
11 |     *                                         |
10 |     *                                         |
 9 |     *                                         |
 8 |    **                                         |
 7 | * ***   *                                     |
 6 | *****   * **          *              *        |
 5 | ***** * * **         **   *       *  *        |
 4 | ********* ** *   *   ***  *       *  * **     |
 3 | ************ * * ** ***** **  **  *  * **     |
 2 | ************** **** ***** **  ** ***** **   * |
 1 |****************************** ** *********  * |
   |--|---------|---------|---------|---------|----|
      1900      1920      1940      1960      1980

The plot of magnitude 7 quakes clearly shows the effect of instrument recording on the recorded number of quakes after the turn of the century.

          Magnitude 7 and higher earthquakes        
   |-----------------------------------------------|
80 |                        *  *                   |
70 |       *                ** *                   |
60 |     * *               *****         *         |
50 |     *******    *   ********        *** *      |
40 |  *  *******  *****************************    |
30 |  *******************************************  |
20 | **********************************************|
10 |***********************************************|
   |--|---------|---------|---------|---------|----|
      1900      1920      1940      1960      1980

The plot of magnitude 1 quakes clearly shows the effect of the completion in the early 1960s of the installation of worldwide instrument recording on the recorded number of quakes. Note that this is a plot of raw data and contains duplicate entries.

           Magnitude 1 and higher earthquakes        
    |-----------------------------------------------|
30k |                                      **       |
28k |                                   *  **     * |
26k |                                   * *****   * |
24k |                                  ********* ***|
22k |                                  ********* ***|
20k |                                  ********* ***|
18k |                                  *************|
16k |                                  *************|
14k |                                 **************|
12k |                                 **************|
10k |                                ***************|
 8k |                               ****************|
 6k |                           ********************|
 4k |           *  * * *****************************|
 2k |***********************************************|
    |--|---------|---------|---------|---------|----|
       1900      1920      1940      1960      1980

The magnitude 1 plot contains a summary of 438,607 quakes from 2100 B.C. through 1988. There were 10,606 quakes through 1894 and 100,448 quakes through 1961. This data should be compared with the Watchtower Society's claim cited above, that "in comparison with the previous 2,000 years, the average per year has been 20 times as great since 1914." The December 1, 1993 Watchtower admitted this claim was false, as shown in the footnote 12 of Part 3 of this essay.

Occasionally the Society has said that the numerical magnitude of quakes is of no particular significance, but the number of people killed by them is. The December 1, 1993 Watchtower, after admitting previous numerical claims were false, used "guilt by association" to imply that earthquakes along with many other sorts of natural disasters are much worse lately. It never explicitly stated this, however, but merely left the reader with the impression that it was so. Do the data bear this out? Are earthquakes in our day really killing more people than ever before? In particular, was there a change after 1914?

One study compared the number of earthquake deaths in the 68 year period from 1915-1983 to the 68 year periods 1715-1783 and 1847-1914. The result was that on average about 17,500 people died per year in the 1915-1983 period, while about 20,000 and 18,000 died annually in the latter two periods. As with the magnitude data above, these variations are statistically insignificant. The reader may examine the charts below to see if there are any trends in the death figures. This writer is unable to see any.

          Earthquake Deaths 1915 - 1983      
     |--------------------------------------|
300k |                                *     |
250k |                                *     |
200k |    *  *                        *     |
150k |    ** *                        *     |
100k |    ** *  ** *               *  *     |
 50k | *  ** *  ** *   ****** **** *******  |
     |----|---------|---------|---------|---|
          1920      1940      1960      1980 

          Earthquake Deaths 1847 - 1914      
     |--------------------------------------|
400k |    *                                 |
350k |    *                                 |
300k |    *                                 |
250k |    *            *                    |
200k |    *            *                    |
150k |    *        *   *               *    |
100k |    *        *   *  *            *    |
 50k |  * *******  * ******** ** *  ******  |
     |----|---------|---------|---------|---|
          1850      1870      1890      1910 

          Earthquake Deaths 1715 - 1783      
     |--------------------------------------|
300k |            *                         |
250k |         *  *                         |
200k |         *  *                         |
150k |         *  *        *            *   |
100k |    *  * *  *        *            **  |
 50k | **** ** ** **   ******* *** *** ***  |
     |----|---------|---------|---------|---|
          1720      1740      1760      1780

The above three charts are based on the following two tables:

A COMPARISON OF EARTHQUAKE VICTIMS
1715-1783 1915-1983a
Year Location Deaths Year Location Deaths
1715 Algeria 20,000 1915 Italy 29,970
1717 Algeria 20,000 1920 China 180,000
1718 China 43,000 1923 Japan 143,000
1719 Asia Minor 1,000 1927 China 200,000
1721 Iran 100,000 1932 China 70,000
1724 Peru (tsunami) 18,000 1933 U.S.A. 115
1725 Peru 1,500 1935 India (Pakistan) 60,000
1725 China 556 1939 Chile 30,000
1726 Italy 6,000 1939 Turkey 23,000
1727 Iran 77,000 1946 Turkey 1,300
1730 Italy 200 1946 Japan 2,000
1730 China 100,000 1948 Japan 5,131
1730 Japan 137,000 1949 Ecuador 6,000
1731 China 100,000 1950 India 1,500
1732 Italy 1,940 1953 Turkey 1,200
1736 China 260 1953 Greece 424
1737 India 300,000 1954 Algeria 1,657
1739 China 50,000 1956 Afghanistan 2,000
1746 Peru 4,800 1957 Iran (Northern) 2,500
1749 Spain 5,000 1957 Iran (Western) 2,000
1750 Greece 2,000 1960 Chile 5,700
1751 Japan 2,000 1960 Morocco 12,000
1751 China 900 1962 Iran 10,000
1752 Syria 20,000 1963 Yugoslavia 1,100
1754 Egypt 40,000 1964 Alaska 131
1755 China 270 1966 Turkey 2,529
1755 Iran 1,200 1969 Iran 11,588
1755 Portugal 60,000 1970 Turkey 1,086
1755 Morocco 12,000 1970 Peru 66,794
1757 Italy 10,000 1971 U.S.A. 65
1759 Syria 30,000 1972 Iran 5,057
1763 China 1,000 1972 Nicaragua 6,000
1765 China 1,189 1973 Mexico (Western) 52
1766 Japan 1,335 1973 Mexico (Central) 700
1771 Japan (tsunami) 11,700 1974 Pakistan 5,200
1773 Guatemala 20,000 1975 China 200
1774 Newfoundland 300 1975 Turkey 2,312
1778 Iran (Kashan) 8,000 1976 Guatemala 23,000
1780 Iran (Tabriz) 100,000 1976 Italy 900
1780 Iran (Khurasan) 3,000 1976 Bali 600
1783 Italy (Calabria) 60,000 1976 Chinab 242,000
1783 Italy (Palmi) 1,504 1976 Philippines 3,373
1783 Italy (Monteleone) 1,191 1976 Turkey 3,790
1977-1983 additionc 44,623
Total 1715-1783: 1,373,845 Total 1915-1983: 1,210,597
Annual average: 19,911 Annual average: 17,545
(a) See Awake! February 22, 1977.
(b) See page 65, footnote 34; compare Awake! July 8, 1982, p. 13.
(c) Ganse & Nelson list a death figure of 44,623 for this period.

Did 1914 really bring a change?

Year Place Deaths Year Place Deaths
1847 Japan 34,000 1882 Italy 2,313
1850 China 300-400,000 1883 Italy 1,990
1851 Iran 2,000 1883 Greece, Asia Minor 15,000
1851 Italy 14,000 1883 Java 36,400
1853 Iran (Shiraz) 12,000 1885 India 3,000
1853 Iran (Isfahan) 10,000 1887 France 1,000
1854 Japan 34,000 1887 China 2,000
1854 El Salvador 1,000 1891 Japan 7,283
1855 Japan 6,757 1893 Western Turkmenia 18,000
1856 Java 3,000 1896 Japan 27,122
1857 Italy 10,000 1897 India (Assam) 1,542
1857 Italy 12,000 1902 Guatemala 2,000
1859 Ecuador 5,000 1902 Turkestan 4,562
1859 Turkey 15,000 1903 Turkey 6,000
1861 Argentina 7,000 1905 India (Kangra) 19,000
1863 Philippines 10,000 1905 Italy 2,500
1868 Peru 40,000 1906 Colombia 1,000
1868 Ecuador, Colombia 70,000 1906 Formosa 1,300
1872 Asia Minor 1,800 1906 Chile 20,000
1875 Venezuela, Colombia 16,000 1907 Jamaica 1,400
1876 Bay of Bengal 215,000 1907 Central Asia 12,000
1879 Iran 2,000 1908 Italy 110,000
1879 China 10,430 1909 Iran 6-8,000
1880 Greece (Chios) 4,000 1910 Costa Rica 1,750
1881 Asia Minor 8,866 1912 Marmara Sea Coast 1,958
Total victims for 68 years previous to 1914: 1,148,973-1,250,973
Annual average: 17,149-18,671

SOURCES: Båth: Introduction to Seismology(1979); Richter: Elementary Seismology (1958); Imamura: Theoretical and Applied Seismology (1937); Ganse-Nelson: Catalog of Significant Earthquakes (1981); Ambraseys: Earth-quake Hazard and Vulnerability (1981); Ambraseys-Melville: A History of Persian Earthquakes (1982); Latter: Natural Disasters (Advancement of Science, June 1969); Press-Siever: Earth (1974); Handbuch der Ceophysik (ed. Prof. B Gutenberg), Band IV (Berlin 1932).

As the above data show, reasonably complete studies prove beyond a doubt that the 20th century has not experienced any statistically significant change either in earthquake frequency or in earthquake deaths compared to earlier times. As one seismologist wrote, "For earlier centuries we do not have the same reliable statistics, but there are no indications at all of any increase in the activity in the course of time." Of course, the December 1, 1993 Watchtower mentioned none of this data. Most individual Jehovah's Witnesses will never examine the data for themselves and so will credulously accept the Society's word. Even if they did examine the data, their prejudices would almost always cause them to reject it in favor of what "God's channel" tells them.

The parts of the "composite sign" Awake! has mentioned up to this point are quantifiable. However, it has not compared the number of events before 1914 to the number after 1914, likely because many people have already pointed out to the Watchtower Society information similar to the above. Without a comparison, the numbers cited are meaningless. Consider the value of the following prediction: "After I die I'll come back and visit you. You'll know I'm about to show up when you see rainbows, rainstorms, floods, tornados, hurricanes and people acting silly. Anyone ridiculing this prediction will be further proof I'm about to arrive." Is it not evident that this sort of prediction applies equally well to all times? Why then, are the Society's claims any better? This example shows why Jesus never said that such things would mark the sign of his parousia. Rather, he warned his followers against interpreting them that way. As Luke 21:8 says:

Look out that you are not misled; for many will come on the basis of my name, saying, 'I am he,' and, 'The due time has approached.' Do not go after them.

Are not the Society's false predictions and current warnings exactly what Jesus was talking about?

Lawlessness

Awake! continues:

"Increasing of lawlessness." (Matthew 24:12) Lawlessness has run wild since 1914; today it is exploding. Murders, rapes, robberies, gang wars -- they dominate the headlines and fill the newscasts. Politicians rip off the public, teenagers carry guns and kill, schoolchildren prey on one another. In many areas it is not safe to walk the streets even in daytime. [g93 3/22 7]

A late secular paper of some note said that crimes were becoming so frequent that they, in their weekly issue, could only make a statement of them, not having room for particulars.... we are now living in a time when crime and corruption have assumed prodigious proportions. [May, 1882 Zion's Watch Tower]

There is no question that lawlessness abounds today. The question is whether it is any worse than in any other time period, or does it just seem that way? People often look wistfully back at the 19th century and wish that conditions were as peaceful and crime-free today. But notice what the May, 1882 Zion's Watch Tower had to say, which is quoted in part above:

The word teaches that "in the last days" (of this age) "evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse" (2 Tim. 3:1,13); but their wise men tell us the world is growing better and better, and yet a late secular paper of some note said that crimes were becoming so frequent that they, in their weekly issue, could only make a statement of them, not having room for particulars.

It is a fact, not an assumption, but a solemn fact, that we are now living in a time when crime and corruption have assumed prodigious proportions, not only in the lower grades of society, but in what are called the upper grades. Even all the machinery of church and state seems to be so rotten that many are exclaiming, without knowing that their utterances are the fulfillment of the spirit of prophecy: "I don't know what we are coming to!" Thus already their hearts are beginning to "fail them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth." Luke 21:26.

No sane man today, unless he is trying to sustain a creed, fails to see (recognize) that thrones stand unsteady, and that throughout the world there is a feeling of distrust among all classes; there is "perplexity." Luke 21:25. Verily, the foundations of the earth do shake. But it is only the beginning of God's "controversy with the people." Plain as these things seem to those who are looking, yet the "wise" (?) men say "peace and safety." [p. 6; pp. 352-3 Reprints]

"All things continue as they were from the beginning of the creation." 2 Peter 3:4.

So even at its very foundation the Watchtower Society was claiming fulfillment of scriptures such as Matthew 24:12. Such scriptures are so broadly applicable that they can hardly be used to pinpoint any time period.

To put the issue into better perspective, note what historian Barbara Tuchman wrote:

After absorbing the news of today, one expects to face a world consisting entirely of strikes, crimes, power failures, broken water mains, stalled trains, school shutdowns, muggers, drug addicts, neo-Nazis, and rapists.... This has led me to formulate Tuchman's Law, as follows: "The fact of being reported multiplies the apparent extent of any deplorable development by five-to tenfold." [A Distant Mirror, page xviii]

As usual, the Society gives no supporting data, and in particular, makes no comparison of current to past crime figures. Apparently the reader is assumed to agree and no further discussion is needed. This implicitly relies on the typical reader's ignorance of historical context. An exception in a past discussion is found in Reasoning from the Scriptures, which on page 237 states:

A leading criminologist says: "The one thing that hits you in the eye when you look at crime on the world scale is a pervasive and persistent increase everywhere. Such exceptions as there are stand out in splendid isolation, and may soon be swamped in the rising tide." (The Growth of Crime, New York, 1977, Sir Leon Radzinowicz and Joan King, pp. 4, 5)

This sounds very impressive until you read the context from which the quotation was taken. The book discusses the increase in crime of the last few decades. The authors nowhere state that this increase is unprecedented in history. Commenting on the theory proposed by certain modern criminologists that "there is not more violence about, but that we are much more sensitive to violence than were our less civilized ancestors," the authors said:

That is all very well if the comparison goes a fair way back.... A longer view, peering into the middle ages, or even the eighteenth century, might well give more substance to the theory. With all our crime, our society as a whole is more secure, less savage, than theirs.... The mere fact that towns had to be walled, that castles had to provide refuge for the surrounding villagers and their belongings, that travelers had to take their own protection with them bears witness to the constant threat of brigands as well as the needs of warfare. Indeed the two would often be hard to distinguish. [ibid, pp. 10-1]

Some studies of long term crime have shown that it is cyclical: it rises for awhile and then falls. This is the general pattern of human society. Nearly everything imaginable goes up and goes down. So it is today. The difficulty in recognizing such patterns is that the cycles usually occur over several generations, so the pattern is hard to see from the perspective of a single lifetime. Some countries such as the United States have experienced a crime wave in the last few decades while in others crime has decreased. From about the mid-1930s to the mid-1950s crime decreased in the United States and other areas, while in other places it increased.

Actually, the 20th century is rather unusual in one way. In the past, crime rates have gone up drastically in times of famine and plague. This is only natural considering what famine and plague do to societies. But in the 20th century famines and plagues have been far less severe worldwide than ever before. One might, therefore, expect the crime rate to go down. Since it is staying at close to long term historical levels, there seems to be a decoupling of crime from famine and plague. This would take some explaining, although seen in a long-term historical context it may be just another statistical fluctuation.

There is good reason for understanding Jesus' words at Matthew 24:12 as applying, not to the world as a whole, but to professed Christians. Jesus described what would happen to his followers in Matthew 24:9-11:

Then people will deliver you up to tribulation and will kill you, and you will be objects of hatred by all the nations on account of my name. Then, also, many will be stumbled and will betray one another and will hate one another. And many false prophets will arise and mislead many.

In this context of religious events Jesus immediately says:

And because of the increasing of lawlessness the love of the greater number will cool off.

With no difficulty at all this "lawlessness" can be understood to mean the religious lawlessness described at Matthew 7:23 and 23:28: "Get away from me, you workers of lawlessness," and "in that way you also, outwardly indeed, appear righteous to men, but inside you are full of hypocrisy and lawlessness." Matthew 13:41 says that the angels would "collect out from his kingdom all things that cause stumbling and persons who are doing lawlessness." So it is not possible to say with certainty exactly what is meant by "the increase of lawlessness." Scripturally alone it could apply to the world in general or to professed Christians. The facts of history indicate it applies to Christians.

Anguish of Nations

Awake! continues:

"Anguish of nations, not knowing the way out... Men become faint out of fear and expectation of the things coming upon the inhabited earth." (Luke 21:25, 26) Crime, violence, drug addiction, family breakups, economic instability, unemployment -- the list is long and growing. One prominent scientist wrote: "We will eat fear, sleep fear, live in fear and die in fear." [g93 3/22 7]

The nations are perplexed, and are preparing for a terrible struggle; huge engines of war are being multiplied by land and sea; millions of men are under arms, and still their numbers are increased, while the people are becoming desperate and alarmed. [Three Worlds, 1877, C. T. Russell and N. H. Barbour]

As far back in history as anyone can find, end-times proclaimers have applied this scripture and the parallel ones in Matthew and Mark to their own day. The first publication that detailed what has become the Society's end-times chronology, Three Worlds and the Harvest of this World, published in 1877 by C. T. Russell and N. H. Barbour, as shown earlier, used the application. Similarly the September, 1879 Zion's Watch Tower said, on page 26 of the Reprints:

Today every civilized nation is in dread, and Nihilism, Communism and Socialism, are household words, and we see "men's hearts failing for fear and for looking after those things coming on the earth, for the powers of heaven (governments) shall be shaken." Luke xxi. 26.

Again we find a scripture that sincere Christians find very applicable to their own day. If these scriptures can have such flexible interpretations, of what value are they in trying to establish a Bible chronology?

But can these applications of Luke 21 really be what Luke is talking about? Do we now see great numbers of people actually becoming "faint out of fear?" Yes, people worry about things, but the fear of crime, war, disease or any other calamity seldom produces more than a sense of unease. There is little of the extreme agitation Luke writes about. There is a strong sense of universal panic in Luke's words. The parallel account at Matt. 24:30 shows this clearly:

And then the sign of the Son of man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will beat themselves in lamentation.

As already pointed out, the Society misapplies Luke 21:25, 26 the same way it misapplies the rest of Luke 21 and the parallel passages in Matthew and Mark. The context of the quoted scripture shows that in verses 20-24, Luke first writes about the destruction of Jerusalem, and then in verse 25 begins describing the special sign the disciples had asked him about to begin with:

Also, there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth anguish of nations, not knowing the way out because of the roaring of the sea and [its] agitation, while men become faint out of fear and expectation of the things coming upon the inhabited earth; for the powers of the heavens will be shaken. And then they will see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.

So it is the actual sign of the Son of man appearing in the heavens immediately before his manifestation before the whole world that produces the fear and agitation. The sign is so unmistakable that everyone on earth can see it, and it terrifies them. It cannot be the ordinary occurrences -- war, earthquakes, etc., that Jesus is talking about, because he had already warned the disciples that those ordinary calamities would continue to occur as usual, and they should not be bothered by them.

The above discussion was written in the spring of 1993 and is based on the work of earlier commentators. At the District assemblies of 1993 the Society did a complete about-face on its understanding of the above quoted scriptures and essentially agreed with the conclusions of the above discussion. Here are a few relevant statements from the talk "Tell Us, When Will These Things Be?"

The Gospel passages in Matthew, Mark and Luke combine with Revelation 17 through 19 to shed considerable light on what will soon occur. At God's fixed time the great tribulation will begin with an attack against the world empire of false religion, Babylon the Great. This will be particularly intense against Christendom, which corresponds to unfaithful Jerusalem. It will be immediately after this phase of the tribulation that there will be "signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth anguish of nations," as Matthew 24:29 and Luke 21:25 describe.

In what sense will the sun be darkened, the moon not give light, the stars fall from heaven and the powers of heaven be shaken? Doubtless, in the early parts of the great tribulation, many luminaries -- prominent clergymen of the religious world -- will have been exposed and eliminated by the ten horns mentioned at Revelation 17:16. No doubt the political powers, too, will have been shaken up. Could there also be frightening events in the physical heavens? More than likely, yes. And far more awe-inspiring than those described by Josephus, as occurring near the end of the Jewish system. We well recall that in ancient past God displayed a power to cause such cataclysmic events and effects.

At this point all three gospel writers use the word tote to introduce the next development. "Then," -- tote, -- "the sign of the Son of man will appear in heaven." Since World War I Jesus' true disciples have discerned the composite sign of the invisible presence, while most people have not recognized it. So Matthew 24:30 points forward to a further sign appearing, that of the Son of man, and all nations will be compelled to take note of it. Upon Jesus' coming with the clouds of invisibility, as Revelation 1:7 states, opposing humans worldwide will have to recognize that coming, because of the supernatural demonstration of his kingly power.

Matthew 24:30 uses tote once more, to introduce what comes next. The nations, sensing the consequence of their situation, will beat themselves and lament. They will recognize that their destruction is imminent.

How long it will be until the Watchtower Society changes its mind completely on all the other mythical elements of the "composite sign" makes for interesting speculation. The Society has painted itself into a very tight corner.

"Reminded of the President's previous statements that the White House was not involved [in the Watergate affair], Ziegler said that Mr. Nixon's latest statement 'is the Operative White House Position... and all previous statements are inoperative.'" -- Boston Globe, 18 Apr. 1973, quoting Ronald L. Ziegler

Critical Times

Awake! continues:

"In the last days critical times hard to deal with." (2 Timothy 3:1) The apostle Paul spoke of people "having come to be past all moral sense." (Ephesians 4:19) He elaborated, however, on the moral breakdown he foretold for "the last days." It sounds like today's newscasts: "Know this, that in the last days critical times hard to deal with will be here. For men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, self-assuming, haughty, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, disloyal, having no natural affection, not open to any agreement, slanderers, without self-control, fierce, without love of goodness, betrayers, headstrong, puffed up with pride, lovers of pleasures rather than lovers of God, having a form of godly devotion but proving false to its power; and from these turn away." -- 2 Timothy 3:1-5. [g93 3/22 7]

That we are living "in the last days" -- "the days of the Lord" -- "the end" of the Gospel age, and consequently, in the dawn of the "new" age, are facts not only discernible by the close student of the Word, led by the spirit, but the outward signs recognizable by the world bear the same testimony. [Zion's Watch Tower, July, 1879, p. 1]

Claiming, as we do, that we are now living in the closing days of the Gospel age, it is quite proper that we should look about us to see whether or not present conditions correspond to the Apostle's inspired descriptions of what must be expected in the last days of this age. [Zion's Watch Tower, May 1, 1899, p. 99; p. 2459 Reprints; in a discussion of 2 Tim. 3:1-5]

The August 15, 1905 Zion's Watch Tower, on page 247 (p. 3612, Reprints) said:

Yet another thing to be noted in connection with our subject, is the character of the times in which we live. The Scriptures abound in allusions to the moral aspect of the world in its "last" period -- the period bordering on the time when Christ shall come with power and great glory, and everywhere those times are represented as full of unbelief, lawlessness, outbreaking sin, rampant lust, blasphemous mockery, and reviling of sacred things, -- a very carnival of bad passions and God-defiant crimes.

The question, therefore, arises, whether our times are not of the character thus divinely described and fore-intimated.... Have "we" not withal fallen upon a time of extraordinary degeneracy and wickedness? Has there not come a grievous falling away from the faith, a giving of heed to seducing spirits and doctrines of demons, through the hypocrisy of men that speak lies? Have not people become lovers of self, lovers of money, boastful, haughty, railers, disobedient to law and rightful authority, unthankful, unholy, without natural affection, implacable, slanderous, without self-control, fierce, traitors, headstrong, puffed up, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, "holding certain forms of godliness," but failing to show the power of godliness in their lives? Have "we" not plentiful examples of those mockers who were to come, walking after their own lusts and likes, and saying, "Where is the promise of his coming?" [Parousia, presence, Diaglott translation.]

Think of the startling multiplication of divorces, the breaking down of the sacredness of marriage, the shameless prevalence of licentiousness, and the commonness of infanticide, and secret blood-guiltiness of which physicians tell. Note the growing indifference to the solemnity of oaths, to sacred promises, to moral obligations, to the laws of God, and to all holy things. Observe the rapid accumulations of colossal robberies, swindles, defalcations, embezzlements, rascalities and false dealings, which disgrace our civilization, much of it also in high places, by people of social rank, education and refinement. Estimate the increasing killings, murders, incendiarisms and lawless and malicious misdoings of men and women, and the trampling under foot of right and justice in political, commercial and banking circles.

Observe the awful increase of suicides, which, within the past few years, have exceeded the number of 200,000 per annum! Lusts and crimes and fiendish passions seem to have reached flood tide, blossoming like trees in springtime, filling our "daily journals with their stench," and yet, treated and familiarly talked of as ordinary and trivial things! And when we consider that all this is within the realm of so-called Christendom, we may well wonder that we should have Christian people singing over it, and telling us that we are on the march to a glorious Millennium [before Christ comes]. What this state of things betokens is not Millennial glory, but "the day of Judgment, on the margin of which the world of today is reading."

So again going back in history, we find end-times proclaimers claiming their own times were the "last days," and that the moral condition of the world was proof of it. In similar fashion the August, 1879 Zion's Watch Tower, described on pages 2-3 its view of Christ's "presence" (parousia):

We believe the Scriptures to teach that, at His coming and for a time after He has come, He will remain invisible; afterward manifesting or showing Himself in judgments and various forms, so that "every eye shall see Him.".... We think we have good solid reasons.... that we are now "in the days of the Son;" that "the day of the Lord" has come, and Jesus, a spiritual body, is present, harvesting the Gospel age.

The Watchtower Society originally taught that the "last days" began in 1799. For example, the 1921 book The Harp of God said on page 236:

"The time of the end" embraces a period from 1799 A.D., as above indicated, to the time of the complete overthrow of Satan's empire and the establishment of the kingdom of the Messiah. The time of the Lord's second presence dates from 1874, as above stated. The latter period is within the first named, of course, and in the latter part of the period known as "the time of the end."

As pointed out earlier, the Harp of God, on page 239, said:

This is without question a fulfilment of the prophecy testifying to the "time of the end." These physical facts can not be disputed and are sufficient to convince any reasonable mind that we have been in the "time of the end" since 1799.

In similar fashion the March 1, 1922 Watch Tower said:

The indisputable facts, therefore, show that the "time of the end" began in 1799; that the Lord's second presence began in 1874.

The November 1, 1922 Watch Tower said:

Bible prophecy shows that the Lord was due to appear for the second time in the year 1874. Fulfilled prophecy shows beyond a doubt that he did appear in 1874. Fulfilled prophecy is otherwise designated the physical facts; and these facts are indisputable....

Since [Christ] has been present from 1874, it follows, from the facts as we now see them, that the period from 1874 to 1914 is the day of preparation. This in no wise militates against the thought that "the time of the end" is from 1799 until 1914....

This particular doctrine about Christ's presence and the "last days" was retained until 1943, but the Society has still not got it right.

Actually there is good reason to think that the expression "the last days," which was never used by Jesus, applies to the entire period from the appearance of the Messiah to the final "coming of the Son of man." For example, Hebrews 1:1, 2 says, in the Revised Standard Version:15

In many and various ways God spoke of old to our fathers by the prophets; but in these last days [in this the final age, New English Bible] he has spoken to us by a Son, whom he appointed the heir of all things, through whom he created the world.

The apostle Peter said the "last days" were in effect in his own time. With reference to the disciples' being filled with holy spirit and speaking in tongues on the day of Pentecost, he said:

This is what was said through the prophet Joel, "'And in the last days,' God says, 'I shall pour out some of my spirit upon every sort of flesh, and your sons and your daughters will prophesy and your young men will see visions and your old men will dream dreams; and even upon my men slaves and upon my women slaves I will pour out some of my spirit in those days, and they will prophesy. And I will give portents in heaven above and signs on earth below, blood and fire and smoke mist; the sun will be turned into darkness and the moon into blood before the great and illustrious day of Jehovah arrives. And everyone who calls on the name of Jehovah will be saved.'" (Acts 2:16-21)

The Society often quotes 2 Tim. 3:1-5 as Awake! does here, but neglects to mention that the context is of Paul counseling Timothy to be careful of men who had already deviated from the faith and were subverting it (2 Tim. 2:16-19) at that time. Paul counseled Timothy, in the present tense, "from these turn away." 2 Tim 3:8-9 continues the warning to Timothy:

Now in the way that Jannes and Jambres resisted Moses, so these also go on resisting the truth, men completely corrupted in mind, disapproved as regards the faith. Nevertheless, they will make no further progress, for their madness will be very plain to all.

Paul's letter to the Romans describes virtually the same bad things as 2 Timothy, saying they were practiced from long ago right up through Paul's day. Romans 1:28-32 says:

And just as they did not approve of holding God in accurate knowledge, God gave them up to a disapproved mental state, to do the things not fitting, filled as they were with all unrighteousness, being full of envy, murder, strife, deceit, malicious disposition, being whisperers, backbiters, haters of God, insolent, haughty, self-assuming, inventors of injurious things, disobedient to parents, without understanding, false to agreements, having no natural affection, merciless. Although these know full well the righteous decree of God, that those practicing such things are deserving of death, they not only keep on doing them but also consent with those practicing them.

These things have been done by wicked men all through history and would not especially mark the "last days," but would continue to be manifest during them. Clearly Paul and Peter said they themselves were living in the "last days."

Ridiculers

Awake! continues:

"In the last days there will come ridiculers." (2 Peter 3:3) Newspapers, newscasts, magazines, books, and movies scornfully dismiss the Bible and replace it with their own free-thinking propaganda, saying, as Peter foretold: "Where is this promised presence of his? Why, from the day our forefathers fell asleep in death, all things are continuing exactly as from creation's beginning." -- 2 Peter 3:4. [g93 3/22 7]

Bible prophecy shows that the Lord was due to appear for the second time in the year 1874. Fulfilled prophecy shows beyond a doubt that he did appear in 1874. [Christ] has been present from 1874.... [November 1, 1922 Watch Tower]

The Apostle Peter describes how some of the unfaithful servants and hypocrites will scoff during the presence of the Lord, even as they scoffed in the days of Noah. (2 Pet. 3:3, 4, 10, 12) [The Time Is At Hand, 1889, p. 167]

This is a silly argument. It is inherently irrefutable and therefore worthless. It applies to any time and any situation. If in, say, the fifth century, a false prophet claimed that Christ was about to appear in kingdom power, and anyone denied it, he could have invoked 2 Peter 3:3 as proof that the kingdom was about to appear. And he would have been dead wrong. How is the situation any different today?

Awake! partially misapplies the quoted scripture. 2 Peter 3:3, 4 applies to the promised parousia of Christ, not to everything in opposition to the Bible, and particularly not to those who ridicule the Bible itself. It hardly need be said that "newspapers, newscasts, magazines, books, and movies" are generally not the least bit concerned with Christ's parousia, especially as it is understood by the Watchtower Society, and so it cannot be said they ridicule it.

In reality this scripture is devastating to the Watchtower Society's claims. Verses 3 and 4 say: "For you know this first, that in the last days there will come ridiculers with their ridicule, proceeding according to their own desires and saying: 'Where is this promised [parousia] of his? Why, from the day our forefathers fell asleep [in death], all things are continuing exactly as from creation's beginning.'" The context of these verses does not dispute the idea that "all things are continuing exactly as from creation's beginning." In fact, the next few verses show that no one except Noah took notice of the judgment about to come upon the world because all things were "continuing exactly as from creation's beginning." The point is that in terms of what one observes in the world, nothing is different in any time period. A Christian must always be on the watch, because "all things are continuing exactly as from creation's beginning."

Finally, 2 Peter 3 is clearly speaking to a contemporary audience, not to some who might read Peter's letter some two thousand years later. The letter says, in effect, that "in these last days you, the recipients of this letter, will see ridiculers, etc." Jude 17 and 18 also indicate that the mocking of the coming of Christ was an attitude already being faced by those to whom the letter was addressed:

Call to mind the sayings that have been previously spoken by the apostles of our Lord Jesus Christ, how they used to say to you: "In the last time there will be ridiculers, proceeding according to their own desires for ungodly things." These are the ones that make separations, animalistic men, not having spirituality. But you, beloved ones, by building up yourselves on your most holy faith, and praying with holy spirit, keep yourselves in God's love, while you are waiting for the mercy of our Lord Jesus Christ.

Persecution

Awake! continues on page 8:

"People will lay their hands upon you and persecute you." (Luke 21:12) Starting in 1914 and through the years, Jehovah's Witnesses have been cruelly arrested, falsely convicted, mobbed, and thrown into Hitler's concentration camps by the thousands, where they were tortured, many killed, some brutally by beheading. In other lands, both in dictatorships and in democracies, their work of witnessing to Jehovah and his Kingdom has been banned and the Witnesses thrown in jail. All of this in fulfillment of Jesus' words for the last days. -- Matthew 5:11, 12; 24:9; Luke 21:12; 1 Peter 4:12, 13.

The Watchtower Society always presents a negative image of professed Christians, even of those other than Jehovah's Witnesses who are now experiencing persecution for their faith. In this way Jehovah's Witnesses are led to believe that persecution is unique to them.

Preaching of the Good News

Awake! continues:

"This good news of the kingdom will be preached in all the inhabited earth." (Matthew 24:14) What good news? The good news of Christ's Kingdom ruling from heaven, for that was the question put to Jesus that produced his prophecy of the composite sign of that event. It has been preached by Jehovah's Witnesses since 1914. Four thousand were doing it in 1919, over four million by 1990, and in 1992 in one month 4,472,787. Bible literature was distributed in some 200 languages in 229 lands. Never before has this feature of the composite sign been fulfilled. [g93 3/22 8]

[With reference to Matthew 24:14,] this witness has already been given. In 1861, the Bible Societies' reports showed that the Gospel had been published in every language of earth; not that all earth's myriads had received it. No; not one in a hundred of the twelve hundred millions have ever heard of the name of Jesus. Yet it has fulfilled the text -- it has been a witness to every nation. We understand that the object of the present witnessing is "To take out a people for His name." [Zion's Watch Tower, July, 1879, p. 4 Reprints]

In the 1897 book The Battle of Armageddon C. T. Russell wrote, on page 568:

This witness has already been given: the word of the Lord, the gospel of the Kingdom, has been published to every nation of earth. Each individual has not heard it; but that is not the statement of the prophecy. It was to be, and has been, a national proclamation. And the end has come! "The harvest is the end of the age," our Lord explained. (Matt. 13:39)

Verifying whether these aspects of Matthew's account have been fulfilled by Jehovah's Witnesses hinges entirely on the question, Are the doctrines of Jehovah's Witnesses the truth? If they are not, then they are lost in the sea of the teachings of "Christendom."

The claim that Christ's kingdom has been ruling from heaven was not made beginning in 1914, so Awake!'s claim is a blatant misrepresentation. C. T. Russell believed Christ was ruling from heaven since 1878, and the Society retained that belief until 1922. J. F. Rutherford salvaged as many of Russell's doctrines as he could, and gradually abandoned the rest. The move of the beginning of Christ's heavenly rule from 1878 to 1914 was part of the salvage operation.

Another point to consider is that the apostle Paul said the worldwide preaching work had been completed in his day. The January 15, 1970 Watchtower well described it, on page 45:

By about the year 60 or 61 C.E., when the apostle Paul was a prisoner in Rome, he could write to the Christian congregation in Colossae, Asia Minor, and say of their hope: "The hope of that good news which you heard, and which was preached in all creation that is under heaven." (Col. 1:23).... Such a preaching of God's kingdom in the inhabited earth had already been given by ten years before the destruction of Jerusalem in 70 C.E.

Ruining the Earth

Awake! continues on page 8:

"Bring to ruin those ruining the earth." (Revelation 11:18) Greedy men have always been willing to ruin the earth for selfish gain, but never before this generation have they had the power to do so. Now, since 1914, modern technology has put that power into their hands, and they are misusing it. They are ruining the earth.

It is true that today men are physically ruining the earth. But the earth can be ruined in another way as well:

The earth came to be ruined in the sight of the true God and the earth became filled with violence. So God saw the earth and, look! it was ruined, because all flesh had ruined its way on the earth. -- Gen. 6:11, 12.

Revelation 11:18 can be interpreted either way, and it cannot be denied that the earth has been ruined in a spiritual sense for a very long time, not just since 1914.

Awake! continues:

Here are a few of the atrocities resulting: acid rain, global warming, holes in the ozone layer, dangerous pesticides, toxic dumps, garbage glut, nuclear waste, oil spills, raw-sewage dumping, dead lakes, destroyed forests, polluted groundwater, species endangered, human health damaged.

Scientist Barry Commoner says: "I believe that continued pollution of the earth, if unchecked, will eventually destroy the fitness of this planet as a place for human life.... The difficulty lay not in scientific ignorance, but in willful greed." State of the World 1987 says: "The scale of human activities has begun to threaten the habitability of the earth itself." A television series aired in 1990 was significantly entitled "Race to Save the Planet."

The last two paragraphs cite evidence that is nowhere associated with Christ's parousia in the Bible. That there are severe atrocities being committed against the planet is disheartening, and much more trouble will come upon mankind because of it, but there is no scriptural evidence that this forms part of some "composite sign."

Conclusion of Parts 3 and 4

At this point it should be evident that virtually all the signs the Watchtower Society now sets forth as evidence we are living in the time of Christ's invisible presence were also put forward by its founder in the 19th century. For almost every sign, the Bible passages Russell used in support of his contention that Christ's presence had begun in 1874, and that the last days had begun in 1799, are now used to support the claim that all these things started to happen in 1914. In some cases the very signs that Russell stated could not be used to support such claims are now touted by the Society. One must wonder how signs that are capable of such flexible interpretation can be used to indicate anything at all, much less prove it.

Several conclusions might be stated here: (1) None of these signs permit establishment of a particular date for the beginning of the "time of the end." (2) The signs are so general that they can be applied just as well to the 19th century as to the 20th, or any other century for that matter. (3) In both centuries the Society first calculated the dates based on an interpretation of the Bible, and only then marshalled evidence from "the signs of the times" in support. In other words, the "signs of the times" were themselves insufficient to come to the "correct" conclusion.

In spite of all this evidence, Awake! continues:

These many events brought together as one sign during one generation can hardly be dismissed as coincidence. Their magnitude also adds weight. And there are some of these events, such as the global preaching of this message of the good news and the ruining of the earth, that have never occurred from creation's beginning. The composite sign of the presence of Christ Jesus is overwhelming.

"Whoever has ears to listen, let him listen." -- Mark 4:23.

These comments bring to mind those of the November 1, 1986 Watchtower, on page 6:

Some people argue that even if the "seven times" are prophetic and even if they last 2,520 years, Jehovah's Witnesses are still mistaken about the significance of 1914 because they use the wrong starting point. Jerusalem, they claim, was destroyed in 587/6 B.C.E., not in 607 B.C.E. If true, this would shift the start of "the time of the end" by some 20 years. However, in 1981 Jehovah's Witnesses published convincing evidence in support of the 607 B.C.E. date. ("Let Your Kingdom Come," pages 127-40, 186-9) Besides, can those trying to rob 1914 of its Biblical significance prove that 1934 -- or any other year for that matter -- has had a more profound, more dramatic, and more spectacular impact upon world history than 1914 did?

The answer to the Society's question is a profound Yes, as the above quotations prove. It has been pointed out as regards 1914, that while the Society claims "many historians correctly point to that year as the pivotal one for mankind," (Oct. 15, 1980 Watchtower, p. 14), this is not true of most historians. Most historians, even the ones the Society quotes, say that 1914 was one of the turning points in history, the turning point in our time, and so forth. This accords perfectly with the fact that Jesus warned his followers against giving credence to any supposed special events. It was the very sameness of events through history that he said would cause some to slack off, and his followers were therefore always to keep on the watch in expectation of his return.

With regard to the Society's claims about the "composite sign," the quotations cited in this essay should indicate to the reader that a more detailed study of these claims about wars, earthquakes, pestilences, famines, and other features of the "sign" further confirm that the 20th century is no worse, and in some cases much better, than preceding centuries. Historian Barbara Tuchman, in the 1978 book A Distant Mirror, shows how the 14th century was similar in many ways to the 20th, and in some cases much worse. Nothing even remotely comparable to some 14th century events has happened in the 20th century. Author Philip Zeigler quoted historian James Westfall Thompson, who compared the aftermaths of the Black Death and World War I, and found that in both cases complaints of contemporaries were the same:

Economic chaos, social unrest, high prices, profiteering, depravation of morals, lack of production, industrial indolence, frenetic gaiety, wild expenditure, luxury, debauchery, social and religious hysteria, greed, avarice, maladministration, decay of manners. [The Black Death, 1969, p. 277]

Then Zeigler concludes:

The two experiences are properly comparable but comparison can only show how much more devastating the Black Death was for its victims than the Great War [of 1914-1918] for their descendants. [p. 278]

Barbara Tuchman, again in A Distant Mirror, described the 14th century as "a violent, tormented, bewildered, suffering and disintegrating age, a time, as many thought, of Satan triumphant," and added:

If our last decade or two of collapsing assumptions has been a period of unusual discomfort, it is reassuring to know that the human species has lived through worse before.

As can be seen from the above comparison of the 14th century to the 20th, and from current history, any claim that all the features of the "composite sign" are individually much worse than in times preceding 1914, and have grown progressively worse since 1914, are simply not true. Many more lives were lost between 1914 and 1945 than were lost between 1945 and 1993. In fact, this latter period has seen the longest era of no war between major powers in hundreds of years. Though the years since 1945 have claimed some 30 million lives, this is less than the number killed in the corresponding period of the last century, 1845-1893. World population now exceeds five billion but was only about one and a half billion in 1900. Despite the massive increase in population in the past hundred years the casualties of war and other disasters do not reflect a general increase in destructiveness.

As regards famine and pestilence, would you rather live in the 20th century, with modern food production and medical facilities, or in previous centuries? As regards earthquakes, the previously mentioned data base of worldwide earthquakes obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey, as well as other sources, shows the 20th century is pretty much the same as any other, both in number of quakes per year and in number of people killed per year. This latter is an amazing fact, because population densities are much higher in the 20th century. The developed nations' policies of building for earthquake resistance have paid off.

The most conclusive evidence that the "composite sign" is a myth is the fact that the 20th century has experienced a tremendous population explosion. If famines, pestilences and wars had been killing people at the rate they did before the 20th century we would not have the population problem we have today. It was only that all these things were so rampant before the 20th century that prevented a population explosion from occurring earlier. This is why the population of the world was about the same in 1000 A.D. as it was at the time of Christ. Demographer Alfred Sauvy talked about the high "mortality factor" in the past, and described the causes:

This mortality factor was active in the past through three extraordinarily deadly fatal sisters: Famine, Disease and War. Due to its immediate effects Famine certainly occupied the first place in this terrifying trinity, closely followed by its near relative Disease.... [Jan Lenica and Alfred Sauvy, Population Explosion, Abundance of Famine, New York, 1962, p. 12]

Of the three demographic fatal sisters only war has continued working unabatedly. We refer here to war in the strict sense of the word, because other forms of violence resulting from it have been considerably reduced.... Diseases still exist, but epidemics of the kind that earlier would decimate whole nations do not rage any longer. Famine and malnutrition still exist but acute and hopeless starvation has been eliminated, mainly owing to better means of transport. [ibid, 1965, pp. 20,26]

Similarly, a high school textbook stated:

In conclusion it can be said that we have arrived at a development that is unique to mankind. For thousands of years famine, disease and war have effectively put a check on all tendencies towards an accelerated population growth. But after the breakthrough of technics and medicine the earlier balance between the constructive and destructive forces of life has been upset, resulting in the population explosion. [Bjorkblom, Altersten, Hanselid & Liljequist, Varlden, Sverige och vi, Uppsala, 1975, p. 31 (Translated from Swedish)]

That there is a population explosion unequivocally shows the idea of a "composite sign" is nothing but a myth, another example of "sounding forth man-made theories," "dreams and guesses." There has been nothing in modern times to compare with the wholesale decimation of populations that has regularly occurred in times past. The Society, of course, prefers to ignore all this.

Getting back to the March 22 Awake!, a sidebox at the end of the second article was entitled "Composite Sign for Jesus' Royal Presence at Second Coming." It said on page 8:

World war; food shortages; pestilences; earthquakes (Matthew 24:7; Luke 21:10,11; Revelation 6:1-8); increased lawlessness; betray and hate one another; disobedient to parents; no natural affection; without self-control; not open to any agreement; lovers of money; love pleasure more than God; form of godly devotion but false to its power; blasphemers; fierce; persecute Christ's followers; bring followers before courts, and kill Christ's followers (Matthew 24:9,10,12; Luke 21:12; 2 Timothy 3:1-5); ridiculers of Jesus' presence; say all things continuing as from creation's beginning (2 Peter 3:3,4); destroyers of the earth's environment. -- Revelation 11:18.

As has been shown, not one of these things is unique to the 20th century, alone or in combination.

Part 5: Sanitizing the Past

Overview:

Eager Expectation

The third article in the March 22, 1993 Awake! series was entitled "Why Such Eager Expectation of the New World?" After quoting a number of scriptures about how God will cause righteousness to dwell upon the earth and will cause all of mankind's ills to disappear, the subsection beginning on page 10 asks and answers the question, "How Near?":

If you are inclined to dismiss all of this as pie in the sky, too good to be true, pause again and reflect. In addition to the features of the composite sign of Christ Jesus' presence, there is Bible chronology that pointed to 1914 as the beginning of his presence. Jehovah's Witnesses published the date 1914 as a significant year in the development of Jehovah's Kingdom rule of the earth, doing so in the Watch Tower magazine of July 1879. Many historians and observers of world affairs have noted that the year 1914 ushered in an entirely different and significant period in human history, as the accompanying box indicates.

This paragraph is amazingly deceptive. No Bible chronology points to 1914. Taken in conjunction with the overall discussion, without actually saying so the paragraph leads the reader into thinking Jehovah's Witnesses predicted in 1879 that Christ's presence would begin in 1914, ushering in the time period the Society now calls "the last days." But this is not true at all, as shown by the Society's new history book, Jehovah's Witnesses -- Proclaimers of God's Kingdom. On page 134 it lists four others prior to 1879 who mentioned 1914 in connection with end-times speculation. The entire picture Awake! paints is false for a variety of reasons.

First, Jehovah's Witnesses did not even exist until 1931 so they could hardly be said to have done anything in 1879. C. T. Russell, founder of the Bible Student movement, would hardly recognize Jehovah's Witnesses today as his successors because they have abandoned so many of his beliefs. Second, the "Bible chronology" that Jehovah's Witnesses now use was not originated by Russell, but, as stated above, by others earlier in the 19th century. The man who put it into the form Russell adopted in 1876 was N. H. Barbour, who later abandoned it himself. Third, the July 1879 Zion's Watch Tower makes no mention of 1914 or of the Gentile times. The year 1914 is not mentioned in the magazine until the December 1879 issue, page 3 (p. 56 Reprints), as being the end of the "day of wrath." The idea that the "Times of the Gentiles" extend to 1914 is not mentioned until the March 1880 issue, page 2 (p. 82 Reprints). Fourth, the chronology is not even right, because it conflicts with both the Bible and secular historical evidence, which agree with each other. Fifth, this chronology pegged 1874, not 1914, as the beginning of "Christ's invisible presence." This honor was not claimed for 1914 until 1943. Sixth, Russell predicted that by 1914 all the kingdoms of the world and false religion would have been destroyed and God's kingdom established in the earth. He most certainly did not predict World War I, because the nations were to have already been destroyed by 1914. Seventh, as has already been pointed out, 1914 was only one of many turning points in world history, and was certainly not the most significant.

In support of these statements, we now present quotations from early Watchtower literature that show exactly what was believed before 1914 about the 1914 date and other "Bible chronology." Refer back to page 30 of this essay for others. Readers should compare these statements with their watered-down and sanitized descriptions in Jehovah's Witnesses -- Proclaimers of God's Kingdom.

The following material provides background on the 1914 chronology. The original calculations were mostly based on dates from John Aquila Brown, who in 1823 published a work claiming that the "seven times" of Daniel 4 were a period of 2520 years running from the beginning of Nebuchadnezzar's reign in 604 B.C. to 1917 A.D. While Brown never equated the 2520 years to the "Gentile Times," other writers soon did.16 Eventually Nelson H. Barbour picked up the torch and put the finishing touches on what became Charles Taze Russell's chronology. Barbour published his calculation of the Gentile Times for the first time in the September, 1875 issue of his monthly paper Herald of the Morning, starting them in 606 B.C. and ending them in 1914 A.D. In January, 1876 C. T. Russell read Barbour's paper, soon got together with him, and accepted all of Barbour's time calculations, even becoming a co-editor of Barbour's paper. These calculations included one that said Christ's presence began in 1874 and the "day of the Lord" began in 1873. Shortly thereafter, Russell published a similar calculation in the October, 1876 issue of The Bible Examiner. This paper was published by George Storrs, who was generally influential on Russell and had been a major leader in William Miller's movement. Storrs was active in Adventist related movements when Russell began publishing.

The earliest publications Russell was involved with stressed the urgency of the times, emphasizing that in 1874 Christ returned and by 1914 he would have destroyed all the kingdoms of the world. The 1877 book Three Worlds and the Harvest of This World, written by N. H. Barbour and financed by Russell, contained the basis for most of Russell's later chronology and many of his doctrines. Note these excerpts:

THE END OF THIS WORLD; that is, the end of the gospel and the beginning of the millennial age is nearer than most men suppose; indeed we have already entered the transition period, which is to be a "time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation" (Dan. 12:1).... [p. 17].

That the millennium is to be ushered in, or preceded, by the most terrible and desolating wars this world has ever witnessed, is so clearly revealed, as to leave no room for the believer in the Bible to call it in question. [p. 19]

The kingdom of God is to be set up before the days of the Gentiles end, for "in the days of these kings shall the God of heaven set up a kingdom; and it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms" (Dan. 2:44). And this breaking in pieces, together with the battle of the great day, are some of the events of this forty years of trouble [beginning in 1874]. [p. 26]

The first issue of Zion's Watch Tower, July 1879, stated on page 1 the object of its publication:

That we are living "in the last days" -- "the days of the Lord" -- "the end" of the Gospel age, and consequently, in the dawn of the "new" age, are facts not only discernible by the close student of the Word, led by the spirit, but the outward signs recognizable by the world bear the same testimony.

The August, 1879 Watch Tower described on pages 2-3 its view of Christ's "presence" (parousia):

We believe the Scriptures to teach that, at His coming and for a time after He has come, He will remain invisible; afterward manifesting or showing Himself in judgments and various forms, so that "every eye shall see Him.".... We think we have good solid reasons.... that we are now "in the days of the Son;" that "the day of the Lord" has come, and Jesus, a spiritual body, is present, harvesting the Gospel age.

When did Christ's "presence" begin? Early Zion's Watch Towers said:

Christ came in the character of a Bridegroom in 1874.... at the beginning of the Gospel harvest. [October, 1879, p. 4]

"The Times of the gentiles" extend to 1914, and the heavenly kingdom will not have full sway till then, but as a "Stone" the kingdom of God is set up "in the days of these (ten gentile) kings," and by consuming them it becomes a universal kingdom -- a "great mountain and fills the whole Earth." [March, 1880, p. 2]

With respect to the parable of the ten virgins of Matthew 25 the Society said:

"Behold, I stand at the door and knock....".... The presence and knock began in the fall of 1874. [April, 1880, p. 2]

The July, 1880 Watch Tower described on pages 1 and 3 some of what was to happen during the "time of trouble," and when that was to be:

Most of our readers are perhaps aware that our understanding of the word leads us to the conclusion that "The time of trouble" or "Day of wrath," covering the forty years from 1874 to 1914 is in two parts or of two kinds: first a time of trouble upon the church during which she (the nominal church) will fall from her present position of influence and respect with the world, and many will fall from truth and from faith. This trouble upon the church and also the fact that we shall be in it but protected and safe is shown by the xci. Psalm.... The trouble coming upon the world will follow the trouble on the church as a natural consequence and is the second part of the trouble of the "Day of wrath." Will the saints be here during its continuance upon the world? No, we remember Jesus said: "Watch ye that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all those things coming upon the world and to stand before the Son of Man." A glorious anticipation is this, that we are to be gathered together unto our living Head -- Christ, and to enter into His kingdom before the pouring out of the vials of wrath upon the world....

We conclude that the day of wrath is included in the Gospel harvest, and, therfore, that the age and harvest extend to 1914, covering a space of forty years from the Spring of 1875....

Clearly these quotations prove Russell did not predict the Kingdom of God would be set up in heaven, in 1914, but would be set up on the earth, by 1914. By 1914 everything would be pretty much wrapped up. Material cited below shows that Russell could not possibly have believed God's Kingdom would be set up in heaven in 1914, because he believed it had already been set up in heaven in 1878. This is further shown by the statement concerning 1914 in The Time Is At Hand, 1889, page 77:

.... at that date the Kingdom of God, for which our Lord taught us to pray, saying, "Thy Kingdom come," will have obtained full, universal control, and that it will then be "set up," or firmly established, in the earth.

Further showing this was Russell's view, the July, 1880 Watch Tower, on page 4, was adamant that by 1914 the "day of wrath" would be finished. He explicitly discounted the doctrine of "Christ's presence" his successors believe:

Will any whose lamps are burning brightly with the light of the truth on the Times of the Gentiles, and the time of trouble or day of vengeance with which those times end, take the ground that the day of wrath extends beyond 1914? They must do all this, and thus ignore the parallelism between the two days of wrath, or admit that Christ receives His crown before the subjugation of the nations in this day of wrath.

The August, 1880 Watch Tower, on page 2, also said that pretty much everything would be wrapped up by 1914. There would be

a period of 33 years of trouble -- making with the preceding 7 years the 40 years of trouble or "Day of wrath" ending with the times of the Gentiles in 1914, when the kingdom of God [soon to be set up or exalted to power] will have broken in pieces and consumed all earthly kingdoms.

The November, 1880 Watch Tower said on page 1 that there was "conclusive proof" about Russell's view of Christ's presence. Discussing parts of Revelation it said:

We need not here repeat the evidences that the "seventh trump" began its sounding A.D., 1840, and will continue until the end of the time of trouble, and the end of "The times of the Gentiles," A.D., 1914, and that it is the trouble of this "Great day," which is here symbolically called the voice of the Archangel when he begins the deliverance of fleshly Israel. "At that time shall Michael stand up, the great prince [Archangel] which standeth for the children of thy people and there shall be a time of trouble such as never was since there was a nation." Dan. xii. 1. Nor will we here, again present the conclusive Bible proof that our Lord came for his Bride in 1874, and has an unseen work as Reaper of the first-fruits of this Gospel Age.

The May, 1881 Watch Tower, on page 5, discussed current beliefs about what might happen in the fall of 1881, and summarized the beliefs about time prophecies:

We believe that all time prophecies (bearing upon Jesus' coming) ended at and before the fall of 1874, and that He came there, and the second advent is now in progress and will continue during the entire Millennial age. We believe that his presence will be revealed to the eyes of men's understandings gradually during this "Day of the Lord," (forty years -- from 1874 to 1914,) as it now is to ours; except that we, discern it through the word of prophecy revealed by the Spirit, and they will recognize his presence by His judgment upon Nominal Zion, and the World.

The January, 1886 Watch Tower, page 1, stressed the urgency of the times:

The outlook at the opening of the New Year has some very encouraging features. The outward evidences are that the marshalling of the hosts for the battle of the great day of God Almighty, is in progress while the skirmishing is commencing....

The time is come for Messiah to take the dominion of earth and to overthrow the oppressors and corrupters of the earth, (Rev. 19:15 and 11:17,18) preparatory to the establishment of everlasting peace upon the only firm foundation of righteousness and truth.

The preceding material proves that, despite what many Jehovah's Witnesses believe today, C. T. Russell did not believe that 1914 marked the establishment of the Kingdom of God in heaven, because that had already happened in 1878. Nor did he believe that 1914 would be followed by another generation of conflict without any intervention by God. He did expect that in 1914 the saints would be glorified and they would be carried off to heaven to rule with Jesus.

Sanitizing the Past

For many years the Society wanted Jehovah's Witnesses to believe that C. T. Russell had predicted Christ's return for 1914, that world war would begin that year, and many other things the Society now attaches to that date. It wants them to believe a sanitized and idealized version of history, because the true history shows that Russell had no more and no less direction from God than any other sincere Christian. When discussing what Russell predicted or believed regarding 1914, the Society is usually not very clear as to exactly what was predicted or believed, but uses some vague expression like "Bible Students were pointing to 1914," without saying precisely what they were pointing out. Things are kept comfortably vague. The 1981 book Let Your Kingdom Come well illustrates this desire to keep the full truth hidden. Note how much is left out in the discussion on pages 127-8:

Years in advance, careful Bible students were looking forward with keen anticipation to that year. On what basis?

Thirty-four years before 1914, the magazine Zion's Watch Tower and Herald of Christ's Presence, in its issues of December 1879 and March 1880, was pointing to 1914 as a marked date in Bible prophecy. An article in its issue of June 1880 called attention to the approaching end of "the Times of the Gentiles (Luke xxi. 24)." Though the writer at the time did not understand the full implication of events about to take place, he showed from Bible chronology that a period of "seven times," or 2,520 years, of domination in government by godless nations, starting from the first desolating of ancient Jerusalem, was due to end in "A.D. 1914." He stated: "The long period of 2520 years and... bitter experience [of God's people] under the dominion of the beasts, (human governments, Dan. vii.) is clearly represented in Dan. iv., by the 'seven times' of Nebuchadnezzar and his bitter experience among the beasts."

The only chronological result Jehovah's Witnesses hold to from the old Zion's Watch Towers is that 1914 was special -- the "Gentile times" were to end that year. Every detail of what was to happen was changed when the original expectations failed to materialize. Let Your Kingdom Come used extreme understatement in saying that "the writer at the time did not understand the full implication of events about to take place," because he really had no idea what he was talking about at all. See page 111 of this essay for just what was predicted in the March 1880 Watch Tower. Here is what the June 1880 Watch Tower had to say about 1914 and related dates (p. 6; p. 109 Reprints):

In Leviticus xxvi, the expression "seven times" is four times repeated in reference to the duration of the rule of its enemies over Jerusalem. It has often been shown that this is the basis and key of the Times of the Gentiles (Luke xxi. 24), or the duration of Gentile rule over Jerusalem. A time is a year; a prophetic year is 360 common years and has been so fulfilled. "A time, times and a half" (i.e., 31/2 times) has been fulfilled as 1260 literal years in the Papal dominion over the nations, between A.D. 538 and A.D. 1798.

If three times and a half are 1260 years, seven times are 2520 years. From B.C. 606, where the desolation of Jerusalem began, 2520 years reach to A.D. 1914.

According to this application of the number seven, Jerusalem will be free at that time, and thence-forward be a praise in the earth. The application is clearly confirmed by the events of to-day -- the trouble brewing among the nations, and the beginning of Jewish restoration.

The prophetic argument on the Two Dispensations shows that favor was due to that people in 1878, and the door was legally opened for their return, by the Anglo-Turkish treaty of that year. From 1878 to 1914, is a period of 37 years for their rise, and is equal to the period of their fall, from the time Jesus left their house desolate in A.D. 33, until their complete destruction in A.D. 70.

Their fall was from natural nationality, and they will rise to the same. "This child is set for the fall and the rising again of many in Israel." Jesus has the work of restoring the natural, and of imparting all manner of spiritual blessings.

The long period of 2520 years and their bitter experience under the dominion of the beasts, (human governments, Dan. vii.) is clearly represented in Dan. iv., by the "seven times" of Nebuchadnezzar and his bitter experience among the beats.

Let Your Kingdom Come phrased its discussion of these early Watch Towers in such a way as to conceal what was really believed. It said that the June 1880 writer "showed from Bible chronology that a period of 'seven times,' or 2,520 years, of domination in government by godless nations, starting from the first desolating of ancient Jerusalem, was due to end in 'A.D. 1914.'" As the full quotation shows, the writer started his calculation in 606 B.C., which the Society discredited and changed to 607 B.C. in 1943. He had neglected the fact that there was no "zero year" between 1 B.C. and 1 A.D. How then, can it be said that the writer "showed" anything from Bible chronology? To "show," or prove something, one must use facts. If one uses mere assertions, or claims that turn out not to be facts, then one has not proved anything. It is lying to claim, knowing that a purported proof has been discredited by later data, that the proof "showed" anything. But this is par for the course in Watchtower literature.

What the Society Really Predicted for 1914

The following material provides more evidence Russell believed that by 1914 God would cause the break-up of all earthly kingdoms and would substitute theocratic rule during the rest of the Millennium. He believed that God would restore men to perfection -- he would not destroy most of them in a coming Battle of Armageddon, because it had already begun in 1874 (see below). These beliefs are evident in what Russell wrote in the first volume of the Millennial Dawn series (Studies in the Scriptures), The Divine Plan of the Ages, first published in 1886. On pages 91 and 95 Russell wrote:

.... but when God's Word and plan are viewed as a whole, these will all be found to favour the view.... that Christ comes before the conversion of the world, and reigns for the purpose of converting the world.... They believe that God will do no more than choose this Church, while we find the Scriptures teaching a further step in the divine plan -- a restitution for the world, to be accomplished through the elect Church.

On page 307 Russell described the events that were supposed to lead up to the end of the "Times of the Gentiles" in 1914:

The "Day of Jehovah" is the name of that period of time in which God's kingdom, under Christ, is to be gradually "set up" in the earth while the kingdoms of this world are passing away and Satan's power and influence over men are being bound. It is everywhere described as a dark day of intense trouble and distress and perplexity upon mankind. And what wonder that a revolution of such proportions, and necessitating such great changes, should cause trouble. Small revolutions have caused trouble in every age; and this, so much greater than any previous revolution, is to be a time of trouble such as never was since there was a nation -- no, nor ever shall be....

It is called the "Day of Jehovah" because, though Christ, with royal title and power, will be present as Jehovah's representative, taking charge of all the affairs during this day of trouble, it is more as the General of Jehovah, subduing all things, than as the Prince of Peace, blessing all....

The phrase "Christ... will be present" is extremely significant, since Russell had been publishing for many years that Christ's "second presence" began in 1874. So the "Day of Jehovah" started in 1874. In The Divine Plan of the Ages this time period is also called the "Day of Vengeance of our God," the "Day of Wrath", the "Day of the Lord" and the "Day of Trouble".

The Divine Plan left the discussion of specific dates to the next volume in the series, first published in 1889, The Time Is At Hand, concerning which it said, on pages 336-7:

Another thought with reference to this Day of Trouble is that it has come just in due time -- God's due time. In the next volume of this work, evidence is adduced from the testimony of the Law and the Prophets of the Old Testament, as well as from Jesus and the apostolic prophets of the New Testament, which shows clearly and unmistakably that this Day of Trouble is located chronologically in the beginning of the glorious Millennial reign of Messiah.... The trouble of the Day of the Lord, which we already see gathering, confirms the wisdom of God's arrangement.

Russell also said in The Time Is At Hand, pages 40, 100:

If, then, the seventh thousand-year period of earth's history be an epoch specially noted as the period of Christ's reign, we shall, by showing that it began in A.D. 1873, be proving that we are already in it. This calls to mind what we have already noted in the preceding volume, that the Scriptures indicated that the dawn of the Millennium, or Day of the Lord, will be dark and stormy, and full of trouble upon the world and upon the nominal church....

So, in this "Day of Jehovah," the "Day of Trouble," our Lord takes his great power (hitherto dormant) and reigns, and this it is that will cause the trouble, though the world will not so recognize it for some time....

The Time Is At Hand made many predictions about what the end of the Times of the Gentiles would bring, on pages 76-7. Judge for yourself if any of these predictions have come true:

God's Kingdom, the Kingdom of Jehovah's Anointed... will be established gradually, during a great time of trouble with which the Gospel age will close, and in the midst of which present dominions shall be utterly consumed, passing away amid great confusion.

In this chapter we present the Bible evidence proving that the full end of the times of the Gentiles, i.e., the full end of their lease of dominion, will be reached in A.D. 1914; and that that date will be the farthest limit of the rule of imperfect men. And be it observed, that if this is shown to be a fact firmly established by the Scriptures, it will prove: -

Firstly, That at that date the Kingdom of God, for which our Lord taught us to pray, saying, "Thy Kingdom come," will have obtained full, universal control, and that it will then be "set up," or firmly established, in the earth, on the ruins of present institutions.

Secondly, It will prove that he whose right it is thus to take the dominion will then be present as earth's new Ruler; and not only so, but it will also prove that he will be present for a considerable period before that date; because the overthrow of these Gentile governments is directly caused by his dashing them to pieces as a potter's vessel (Psa. 2:9; Rev. 2:27), and establishing in their stead his own righteous government.

Thirdly, It will prove that some time before the end of A.D. 1914 the last member of the divinely recognized Church of Christ, the "royal priesthood," "the body of Christ," will be glorified with the Head; because every member is to reign with Christ, being a joint-heir with him of the Kingdom, and it cannot be fully "set up" without every member.

Fourthly, It will prove that from that time forward Jerusalem shall no longer be trodden down of the Gentiles, but shall arise from the dust of divine disfavor, to honor; because the "Times of the Gentiles" will be fulfilled or completed.

Fifthly, It will prove that by that date, or sooner, Israel's blindness will begin to be turned away; because their "blindness in part" was to continue only "until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in" (Rom. 11:25), or, in other words, until the full number from among the Gentiles, who are to be members of the body or bride of Christ, would be fully selected.

Sixthly, It will prove that the great "time of trouble such as never was since there was a nation," will reach its culmination in a world-wide reign of anarchy; and then men will learn to be still, and to know that Jehovah is God and that he will be exalted in the earth.

Seventhly, It will prove that before that date God's Kingdom, organized in power, will be in the earth and then smite and crush the Gentile image (Dan. 2:34) -- and fully consume the power of these kings. Its own power and dominion will be established as fast as by its varied influences and agencies it crushes and scatters the "powers that be" -- civil and ecclesiastical -- iron and clay.

On pages 98-99 The Time Is At Hand said:

True, it is expecting great things to claim, as we do, that within the coming twenty-six years all present governments will be overthrown and dissolved; but we are living in a special and peculiar time, the "Day of Jehovah," in which matters culminate quickly; and it is written, "A short work will the Lord make upon the earth....

In view of this strong Bible evidence concerning the Times of the Gentiles, we consider it an established truth that the final end of the kingdoms of this world, and the full establishment of the Kingdom of God, will be accomplished by the end of A.D. 1914.

The Society tends to minimize the certainty with which Russell published statements like these, but his express statement that "we consider it an established truth" clearly shows his intent. On page 101 The Time Is At Hand said:

Be not surprised, then, when in subsequent chapters we present proofs that the setting up of the Kingdom of God is already begun, that it is pointed out in prophecy as due to begin the exercise of power in A.D. 1878, and that the "battle of the great day of God Almighty" (Rev. 16:14), which will end in A.D. 1914 with the complete overthrow of earth's present rulership, is already commenced. The gathering of the armies is plainly visible from the standpoint of God's Word.

If our vision be unobstructed by prejudice, when we get the telescope of God's Word rightly adjusted we may see with clearness the character of many of the events due to take place in the "Day of the Lord" -- that we are in the very midst of those events, and that "the Great Day of His Wrath is come."

The September 1 and 15, 1893 Watch Tower is quite revealing as to Russell's view of what would happen before 1914, and it proves he did not think his views were speculation of any sort. On pages 282-284 it said (p. 1581 of Reprints):

The question comes from many quarters: "Brother Russell, are you not possibly mistaken by a few years in your calculations, since you expect, upon Scriptural authority, that the great trouble will all be over by A.D. 1914, and that in its severity it will probably not reach us before A.D. 1906 to 1908? Is it not possible that the present financial trouble is the beginning of the great trouble?"

We answer, No; we think there is no mistake.

The July 1, 1894 Watch Tower emphasized that the facts supported its chronology. On pages 224-8 (p. 1675 Reprints) it said:

It is interesting to look back and note the accuracy of the fulfillment of God's Word, so that our hearts may be established with the greater confidence respecting the future -- the things coming upon the earth. For instance, as we look back and note that the Scriptures marked 1873 as the end of six thousand years from Adam to the beginning of the seventh thousand, and the fall of 1874 as the beginning of the forty-year harvest of the Gospel age and day of wrath for the overthrow of all the institutions of "this present evil world [or order of affairs]," we can see that facts have well borne out those predictions of Scripture. We see that the present worldwide distress had its beginning there; that it has been progressing with increasing momentum every year since; and that, as the Apostle Paul declared it would be, so it has been, and so it is -- "As travail upon a woman with child." Each spasm of pain is more intense; and so it evidently will continue to be until the death of the present order of things and the birth of the new.

The June 11, 1894 Watch Tower, page 162 (not reproduced in Watch Tower Reprints) said:

"As travail upon a woman with child" is the inspired description of the forty-year day of trouble, by which the Millennial age is commenced. The panic of 1873, which affected the whole world, was the first spasm, and since then at irregular intervals the labor-pains of earth have been experienced. Just now, we of the United States are in the midst of one of these throes of the groaning creation.

The Watch Tower was referring to the great depression of 1894, the greatest in the United States until the depression of the 1930s. But this again was referring to events that were to take place as part of the final death-throes of humanity, as can be seen in the next paragraph in the article:

In this land of bountiful crops, many, because of strikes, are almost destitute of food. In this land of liberty thousands of armed and unarmed men in half a dozen states are in a state of war. It is a war of labor against capital, and is the natural result of the competitive system of business, which evidently will hold on until spasm after spasm of increasing severity, resulting in archy [sic] will ultimately give birth to a new order of society based upon the new-old teaching of Christ.

The January 15, 1892 Watch Tower said on page 19:

The Scriptures give unmistakable testimony to those who have full faith in its records, that there is a great time of trouble ahead of the present comparative calm in the world -- a trouble which will embroil all nations, overthrow all existing institutions, civil, social and religious, bring about a universal reign of anarchy and terror, and prostrate humanity in the very dust of despair, thus to make them ready to appreciate the power that will bring order out of that confusion and institute the new rule of righteousness. All this, the Scriptures show us, is to come to pass before the year 1914 (See MILLENNIAL DAWN, Vol. II, Chapter IV.) -- that is, within the next twenty-three years.

All thinking men, whether they have faith in the Word of prophecy or not, see in the present attitude of mankind in general a growing tendency which threatens such a culmination, and they stand in fear and dread of it. As a consequence, the daily papers and the weeklies and monthlies, religious and secular, are continually discussing the prospects of war in Europe. They note the grievances and ambitions of the various nations and predict that war is inevitable at no distant day, that it may begin at any moment between some of the great powers, and that the prospects are that it will eventually involve them all. And they picture the awful calamity of such an event in view of the preparations made for it on the part of every nation. For several years past thoughtful observers have said, War cannot be kept off much longer: it must come soon -- "next spring," "next summer," "next fall," etc.

But, notwithstanding these predictions and the good reasons which many see for making them, we do not share them. That is, we do not think that the prospects of a general European war are so marked as is commonly supposed. True, all Europe is like a great powder magazine which a single stray match might set off at any moment with a tremendous explosion. The various nations are armed to the teeth with the most destructive weapons that skill and ingenuity can invent, and there are national grievances and bickerings and hatred that must find a vent some time; and in consideration of these things the war cloud is always impending and ever darkening: but things may continue just so for many years, and we think they will.

These rumors of impending European wars, and the desire to judge whether observation would tend to confirm the divine revelation that the intensity of the great predicted trouble is yet nearly fifteen years future, formed no small part of our motive in visiting Europe during the past summer.

On pages 21-23, this issue stated again that the final battle had already begun, its end to come in 1914:

The date of the close of that "battle" is definitely marked in Scripture as October, 1914. It is already in progress, its beginning dating from October, 1874. Thus far it has been chiefly a battle of words and a time of organizing forces.... Never was there such a general time of banding together as at present. Not only are nations allying with each other for protection against other nations, but the various factions in every nation are organizing to protect their several interests.... This feature of the battle must continue with varying success to all concerned; the organization must be very thorough; and the final struggle will be comparatively short, terrible and decisive -- resulting in general anarchy.

Another book by Russell, Thy Kingdom Come, 1891, said on page 153:

.... with the end of A.D. 1914, what God calls Babylon, and what men call Christendom, will have passed away, as already shown from prophecy.

So for a long time prior to 1914 Russell said Armageddon is "already in progress." The following quotations show that after 1914 he said it would begin very soon and that the War in progress would lead right into it.

January 1, 1915: .... the war is one predicted in the Scriptures as associated with the great day of Almighty God -- "the day of vengeance of our God."

April 1, 1915: The Battle of Armageddon, to which this war is leading, will be a great contest between right and wrong, and will signify the complete and everlasting overthrow of the wrong, and the permanent establishment of Messiah's righteous kingdom for the blessing of the world.... Our sympathies are broad enough to cover all engaged in the dreadful strife, as our hope is broad enough and deep enough to include all in the great blessings which our Master and his Millennial kingdom are about to bring to the world.

April 15, 1916: We believe that the dates have proven to be quite right. We believe that Gentile Times have ended, and that God is now allowing the Gentile Governments to destroy themselves, in order to prepare the way for Messiah's kingdom.

September 1, 1916: It still seems clear to us that the prophetic period known as the Times of the Gentiles ended chronologically in October, 1914. The fact that the great day of wrath upon the nations began there marks a good fulfillment of our expectations.... We see no reason for doubting, therefore, that the Times of the Gentiles ended in October, 1914; and that a few more years will witness their utter collapse and the full establishment of God's kingdom in the hands of Messiah.

"A few more years...." So much for the 'vision' of C. T. Russell. The Society, and A. H. Macmillan in Faith on the March, (p. 54) have argued that Russell envisioned a protracted post-1914 preaching and growth. The published statements show that it simply was not so.

Oddly enough, in October, 1916 Russell played down the significance of what he had predicted for 1914. In the foreword to the 1916 edition of The Time Is At Hand, on page iii and exercising clear hindsight he wrote:

We could not, of course, know in 1889, whether the date 1914, so clearly marked in the Bible as the end of the Gentile lease of power or permission to rule the world, would mean that they would be fully out of power at that time, or whether, their lease expiring, their eviction would begin. The latter we perceive to be the Lord's program; and promptly in August, 1914, the Gentile kingdoms referred to in the prophecy began the present great struggle, which, according to the Bible, will culminate in the complete overthrow of all human government, opening the way for the full establishment of the Kingdom of God's dear Son.

In the foreword to the 1916 edition of Thy Kingdom Come he wrote, on pages i and ii:

.... we anticipate that before a very long time -- perhaps a year or two or three -- the full number of the Elect will be completed, and all will have gone beyond the Veil and the door will be shut.

So Russell felt that the things that did not happen in 1914 would still happen very shortly thereafter -- "perhaps a year or two or three." In the foreword to The Time Is At Hand he excused some of these false predictions.

The author acknowledges that in this book he presents the thought that the Lord's saints might expect to be with Him in glory at the ending of the Gentile Times. This was a natural mistake to fall into, but the Lord overruled it for the blessing of His people. The thought that the Church would all be gathered to glory before October, 1914, certainly did have a very stimulating and sanctifying effect upon thousands, all of whom accordingly can praise the Lord -- even for the mistake. Many, indeed, can express themselves as being thankful to the Lord that the culmination of the Church's hopes was not reached at the time we expected; and that we, as the Lord's people, have further opportunities of perfecting holiness and of being participators with our Master in the further presentation of His Message to His people.

Involving God and Christ with the mistakes made, with God "overruling" certain predictions, provides a convenient escape from having to shoulder the responsibility for having falsely presented as "God's dates" things that were not God's dates at all but simply the product of human speculation. Merit is found even in false predictions because of the "stimulating and sanctifying effect" produced, so that one may "praise the Lord -- even for the mistake." Whatever motivated Russell to put such confidence in his speculations, it is evident that he could not allow himself to take responsibility for his false claims and predictions. For whatever reasons, he deluded himself until his death.

This legacy of delusion -- imperviousness to reality -- is firmly entrenched in the Watchtower Society today. The self-delusional approach allowed for still more false predictions with their "stimulating" effects. J. F. Rutherford and his successors took full advantage of the smokescreen these ideas allowed. The March 22, 1993 Awake! follows suit.

Contrary to Russell's expectations the War ended in 1918 without being followed by worldwide Socialist revolution and anarchy. The last member of the Church of Christ had not been glorified, the city of Jerusalem was still trodden down by the Gentiles, the Kingdom of God had not crushed "the Gentile image," and the "new heavens and the new earth" could not be seen anywhere by trouble-tossed humanity. Not one of the seven predictions enumerated in The Time Is At Hand had come true.

"He that deceives me once, shame fall him; if he deceives me twice, shame fall me." -- James Kelley, Scottish Proverbs

The Society finally admitted, in its new history book Jehovah's Witnesses -- Proclaimers of God's Kingdom, that most of Russell's expectations based on his chronology were quite incorrect. Yet note how watered-down, to the point of being comical, the admissions are. From page 135:

What would the end of the Gentile Times mean?

The Bible Students were not completely sure what would happen [the author of JWPGK is a true master of understatement]. They were convinced that it would not result in a burning up of the earth and a blotting out of human life [excellent; the scriptures contain no trace of such an idea]. Rather, they knew it would mark a significant point in regard to divine rulership [how could they be said to have known this when all their concrete predictions based on the same foundation ultimately failed?]. At first, they thought that by that date the Kingdom of God would have obtained full universal control. When that did not occur, their confidence in the Bible prophecies that marked the date did not waver [just like William Miller's and N. H. Barbour's followers' confidence in their dates did not waver after they failed]. They concluded that, instead, the date had marked only a starting point as to Kingdom rule [in other words, they quickly redesigned their chronological doctrines after they were disproved].

Similarly, they also first thought that global troubles culminating in anarchy (which they understood would be associated with the war of "the great day of God the Almighty") would precede that date [note how the earlier belief that Armageddon had already started in 1874 is not mentioned]. (Rev. 16:14) But then, ten years before 1914, the Watch Tower suggested that worldwide turmoil that would result in the annihilating of human institutions would come right after the end of the Gentile Times [sure, because Russell had predicted that by 1904 major troubles would have begun, and when they didn't he had to revise his claims]. They expected the year 1914 to mark a significant turning point for Jerusalem, since the prophecy had said that 'Jerusalem would be trodden down' until the Gentile Times were fulfilled. When they saw 1914 drawing close and yet they had not died as humans and been 'caught up in the clouds' to meet the Lord -- in harmony with earlier expectations [apparently referring to the failed rapture and resurrection predictions for 1878 and 1881] -- they earnestly hoped that their change might take place at the end of the Gentile Times [just as some of William Miller's disappointed followers continued to hope for their change].

As the years passed and they examined and reexamined the Scriptures, their faith in the prophecies remained strong, and they did not hold back from stating what they expected to occur [like predicting Armageddon in 1918 and 1925?]. With varying degrees of success, they endeavored to avoid being dogmatic about details not directly stated in the Scriptures [like when a 1923 Watch Tower said "As to Noah, the Christian now has much more upon which to base his faith than Noah had... upon which to base his faith in a coming deluge"?].

Let us examine this last statement carefully. It says "with varying degrees of success ..." This really means that sometimes they failed to avoid being dogmatic (note the confusing double negative thinking required here), and so they were dogmatic after all. The statements in this essay certainly prove that the Society has been dogmatic. Put bluntly, the book is saying that sometimes the Society dogmatically preached things that were not taught in the scriptures. This is a perfect example of "lying by telling the truth," as noted in Part 1 of this essay.

As for his successors' claims for J. F. Rutherford's humility and lack of dogmatism, after everything Rutherford had said about 1925 came crashing down he admitted to the Bethel family, "I know I made an ass of myself." Had Rutherford been truly humble he never would have made such asinine claims to begin with.

"He that makes himself an Ass, must not take it ill if Men ride him." -- Thomas Fuller, Gnomologia

Part 6: Later Effects of the Society's False Predictions

Overview:

The 1930 book Light I well described the effects of the failed predictions. Compare what it said with the way the Society now describes exactly the same events:

All of the Lord's people looked forward to 1914 with joyful expectation. When that time came and passed there was much disappointment, chagrin and mourning, and the Lord's people were greatly in reproach. They were ridiculed by the clergy and their allies in particular, and pointed to with scorn, because they had said so much about 1914, and what would come to pass, and their 'prophecies' had not been fulfilled. [Light I, p. 194]

From 1876 onward, Jehovah's people served notice upon the world, and particularly upon Christendom, that the Gentile Times would end in the fall of 1914.... The clergy could not ignore this preliminary work of almost 40 years.... Those clergymen waited eagerly to pounce upon this journal's editor should 1914 pass without any outstanding events to correspond with those about which he warned. But oh how they were silenced when on July 28, 1914, peace was shattered by the outbreak of World War I! [September 1, 1985 Watchtower, p. 24]

About 1918 J. F. Rutherford began the process of replacing Russell's unfulfilled predictions with a series of invisible and spiritual events associated with the years 1914 and 1918. By the early 1930s the process was complete.

An interesting comment on this transformation is made by Carl Sagan in Broca's Brain, pages 332-333:

Doctrines that make no predictions are less compelling than those which make correct predictions; they are in turn more successful than doctrines that make false predictions.

But not always. One prominent American religion confidently predicted that the world would end in 1914. Well, 1914 has come and gone, and -- while the events of that year were certainly of some importance -- the world does not, at least so far as I can see, seem to have ended. There are at least three responses that an organized religion can make in the face of such a failed and fundamental prophecy. They could have said, "Oh, did we say '1914'? So sorry, we meant '2014.' A slight error in calculation. Hope you weren't inconvenienced in any way." But they did not. They could have said, "Well, the world would have ended, except we prayed very hard and interceded with God so He spared the Earth." But they did not. Instead, they did something much more ingenious. They announced that the world had in fact ended in 1914, and if the rest of us hadn't noticed, that was our lookout. It is astonishing in the face of such transparent evasions that this religion has any adherents at all. But religions are tough. Either they make no contentions which are subject to disproof or they quickly redesign doctrine after disproof. The fact that religions can be so shamelessly dishonest, so contemptuous of the intelligence of their adherents, and still flourish does not speak very well for the tough-mindedness of the believers. But it does indicate, if a demonstration were needed, that near the core of the religious experience is something remarkably resistant to rational inquiry. [Carl Sagan, Broca's Brain, Ballantine Books, New York, 1982, p. 332]

At this point it should be clear why Awake!'s statement on page 8, that "the good news of Christ's Kingdom ruling from heaven... has been preached by Jehovah's Witnesses since 1914" is a blatant misrepresentation. It should also be clear from the contents of this essay that Jehovah's Witnesses either "make no contentions which are subject to disproof or they quickly redesign doctrine after disproof."

Watchtower Tradition Will Be Maintained

Returning to the Awake! article, we now comment on what the accompanying side box said on page 11:

1914 -- A Turning Point in History Even after a second world war, many refer to 1914 as the great turning point in modern history:

The year 1914 was only one of many important turning points of modern history:

Like the French Revolution, the First World War was one of the great convulsions of history. [Barbara W. Tuchman, The Guns of August -- August 1914, the Four Square Edition, 1964 & 1965, under "Sources" at the end of the book]

The French Revolution is the most important event in the life of modern Europe. It deserves to be ranked with the Reformation and rise of Christianity because, like them, it destroyed the landmarks of the world in which generations of men had passed their lives. [Cambridge Modern History, Cambridge University Press, 1904, Vol. 8]

Even today in the middle of the twentieth century, despite all that has happened in the lifetime of men not yet old, and even here in America or in any other part of a world in which the countries of Europe no longer enjoy their former commanding position, it is still possible to say that the French Revolution at the end of the eighteenth century was the great turning point of modern civilization. [The noted historian R. R. Palmer in the preface to George Lefebvre's The Coming of the French Revolution, Vintage, New York, 1947, page v]

Awake! continues:

"It is indeed the year 1914 rather than that of Hiroshima which marks the turning point in our time." -- Rene Albrecht-Carrie, The Scientific Monthly, July 1951.

From the vantage point of two more decades into the atomic age (the Soviets had not developed atomic weapons in 1951), two military historians wrote:

A new era in warfare and a new era in history dawned in the closing days of this period: the nuclear age, ushered in by the first atomic bomb drop, on Hiroshima, August 6, 1945. [R. Ernest Dupuy and Trevor N. Dupuy, The Encyclopedia of Military History, New York, 1970, page 1024]

Awake! continues:

"Ever since 1914, everybody conscious of trends in the world has been deeply troubled by what has seemed like a fated and predetermined march toward ever greater disaster. Many serious people have come to feel that nothing can be done to avert the plunge towards ruin." -- Bertrand Russell, The New York Times Magazine, September 27, 1953. "The modern era ... began in 1914, and no one knows when or how it will end.... It could end in mass annihilation." -- The Seattle Times, January 1, 1959. "The whole world really blew up about World War I and we still don't know why.... Utopia was in sight. There was peace and prosperity. Then everything blew up. We've been in a state of suspended animation ever since." -- Dr. Walker Percy, American Medical News, November 21, 1977. "In 1914 the world lost a coherence which it has not managed to recapture since.... This has been a time of extraordinary disorder and violence, both across national frontiers and within them." -- The Economist, London, August 4, 1979.

The same article in The Economist compared the period after 1914 with the period from 1789 to 1848, which was as unstable, filled with wars, disorder and violence, as our own time, and suggested that history follows a rhythmic pattern -- "Two generations of upheaval and violence, followed by two generations of consolidation and calm, followed by two more generations of upheaval, followed by ...?" So all the article really said was that the period since 1914 seems to follow the general cyclical pattern of history.

Awake! continues:

"Everything would get better and better. This was the world I was born in.... Suddenly, unexpectedly, one morning in 1914 the whole thing came to an end." -- British statesman Harold Macmillan, The New York Times, November 23, 1980.

The year 1914 was surely a turning point in history, but it was not the greatest nor did it usher in the most horrendous epoch in human history. Although the Society does not do so in this article, it has often painted a picture of worldwide tranquillity before 1914, with the War taking everyone by surprise. Actually, no one who knew anything of world affairs at that time was surprised, as the above quotations from 19th century Watchtower literature prove. Some people who were young at the time might remember it as 'the good old days', as elderly people are prone to do when idealizing their youth, but this means little by comparison to the statements of historians. The Society knows very well that conditions were ripe for a major conflagration. The 1959 book Jehovah's Witnesses in the Divine Purpose said on page 53:

An explosive atmosphere of national rivalry was developed all over the world, and the feverish campaign of the political and commercial rulers in their mad armaments race was being fully supported by the clergy of all lands. France and Germany were piling up an enormous war potential, while Britain and the United States were fortifying themselves also.... Truly mankind's masses were being herded into camps of war. Satan, as ruler of this world, was gathering his forces for the end he knew must come in 1914.

It is noteworthy that Awake!'s quotations contain no statements by professional historians. Rather, many of the quotations are from the popular news media, which is always looking for ways to blow ordinary events out of proportion for the sake of a spicy story. Even the quotation from Harold Macmillan counts for little, as he was a young man at the time and was never a historian.

What does the history of the time actually show? In Europe there was relative peace, but only on the surface because the various countries were heavily arming themselves. Field-Marshal Viscount Montgomery of Alamein, in A History of Warfare, Collins, London, 1968, page 443, states: "The years between 1870 and 1914 were years of armed peace in Europe and of frequent small wars throughout the rest of the world." So Europe experienced a long period of peace but in the rest of the world there was much turmoil, similar to the situation since 1945. One historian wrote:

If, however, someone would start to talk about the good old days, about the long peace period from c. 1871 to 1914, he should just open the closed pages of the history book: the Boer War in South Africa, the Boxer Rebellion in China, the Russo-Japanese War, the Illinder Rebellion in Macedonia, the Balkan Wars and the occupation of Bosnia, the war between Italy and Abyssinia, the Mahdi Rebellion, the Herero Rebellion in German South-west Africa, the wars between the Berbers and the French in Algeria, wars in Indo-China, revolutions in South America -- and this is just a selection from among the war events during this long 'peace period.' [Otto Koenig, Das Paradies vor unserer Tur (Wien, Munchen, Zurich, 1971), page 391. (Translated from German)]

To which may be added the Spanish-American War. Historian Barbara Tuchman offered a good explanation of why many think the period before 1914 was one of peace:

It is not the book I intended to write when I began. Preconceptions dropped off one by one as I investigated. The period was not a Golden Age or Belle Epoque except to a thin crust of the privileged class.... We have been misled by the people of the time themselves who, in looking back across the gulf of the War, see that earlier half of their lives misted over by a lovely sunset haze of peace and security. It did not seem so golden when they were in the midst of it. Their memories and their nostalgia have conditioned our view of the pre- war era but I can offer the reader a rule based on adequate research: all statements of how lovely it was in that era made by persons contemporary with it will be found to have been made after 1914. [Barbara W. Tuchman, The Proud Tower. A Portrait of the World Before the War, 1890-1914 (New York, 1962, 1966), pages xiii, xiv.]

In reality almost everyone expected a great war, since many nations had been preparing for it for decades. Had they not been expecting it they would not have been preparing for it. As noted above, even the Watchtower Society's founder, C. T. Russell, expected it, although precisely what he expected changed over the years. In 1887 he wrote:

This all looks as though next Summer would see a war on foot which might engage every nation in Europe. [Zion's Watch Tower, February 1887, p. 2]

By 1892 Russell had changed his mind about what the future would bring. While many expected a great war, he thought it would be minor compared to the worldwide anarchy that was to culminate with the end of the "Gentile times" in 1914:

.... the daily papers and the weeklies and monthlies, religious and secular, are continually discussing the prospects of war in Europe. They note the grievances and ambitions of the various nations and predict that war is inevitable at no distant day, that it may begin at any moment between some of the great powers, and that the prospects are that it will eventually involve them all.... We do not think that the prospects of a general European war are so marked as is commonly supposed. True, all Europe is like a great powder magazine which a single stray match might set off at any moment with a tremendous explosion. The various nations are armed to the teeth with the most destructive weapons that skill and ingenuity can invent, and there are national grievances and bickerings and hatred that must find a vent some time; and in consideration of these things the war cloud is always impending and ever darkening: but things may continue just so for many years, and we think they will.... Even should a war or revolution break out in Europe sooner than 1905, we could not consider it any portion of the severe trouble predicted. At most it could be a forerunner of it, a mere 'skirmish' as compared with what is to come.

The date of the close of that "battle" is definitely marked in Scripture as October, 1914. It is already in progress, its beginning dating from October, 1874. Thus far it has been chiefly a battle of words and a time of organizing forces.... Never was there such a general time of banding together as at present. Not only are nations allying with each other for protection against other nations, but the various factions in every nation are organizing to protect their several interests. [Zion's Watch Tower, January 15, 1892, pp. 19-23]

Awake!'s main article continues:

Another event that Jesus gave is found at Matthew 24:21, 22: "Then there will be great tribulation such as has not occurred since the world's beginning until now, no, nor will occur again. In fact, unless those days were cut short, no flesh would be saved; but on account of the chosen ones those days will be cut short."

Jesus also indicated that this composite sign would be completed during the life of the generation that saw it begin in 1914. At Matthew 24:32-34, he said: "Now learn from the fig tree as an illustration this point: Just as soon as its young branch grows tender and it puts forth leaves you know that summer is near. Likewise also you, when you see all these things, know that he is near at the doors. Truly I say to you that this generation will by no means pass away until all these things occur."

From time to time, as the world moves further from 1914, the Society updates its understanding of what "this generation" means. The time span allotted to a generation has gradually lengthened, under the Society's watchful eye. Today the Society makes no statements about the length. Psalm 90:10 states:

In themselves the days of our years are seventy years; and if because of special mightiness they are eighty years, yet their insistence is on trouble and hurtful things.

It would appear that 1994 will be a make-it-or-break-it year for this teaching.

Still Crying Wolf

Awake! continues on page 11:

To see this old world -- with all its wars, famines, diseases, and deaths -- over and done with will be a cause for rejoicing. To see it replaced by Jehovah God's new world of righteousness -- bringing an end to mourning, tears, sickness, and death -- will give cause for endless celebration and joy and everlasting praises to Jehovah God, the Grand Creator and Universal Sovereign.

With this prospect ahead, no wonder many have such eagerness for Jehovah's new world of righteousness to hurry up and replace this old one filled with sorrow, crime, sickness, and death! No wonder their eagerness is so great that they are prone to set early dates for its arrival! Now, however, there are not just bits and pieces of the sign of its incoming to tempt us into sounding false alarms. Now we can see the complete composite sign unfolding to give solid foundation for our eager expectation of this wicked world's end and Jehovah's new world to supplant it.

These paragraphs are so misleading as to be almost beyond belief. They excuse the Society from past or future responsibility for misleading people about "the end of the world." They cast off responsibility for "pronouncing the righteous one wicked" who points out that these unfounded speculations are just that. They ignore all the historical and biblical evidence that proves the "composite sign" a pipe-dream. They voice "expectations based on" the Society's "own interpretation" of scripture texts and physical events. They show the Society is "undeterred by previous failures" and will continue to make "further predictions of the end of the world." It glories in crying Wolf!

The Watchtower Society reminds one of those described in 2 Timothy 3:7, "always learning and yet never able to come to an accurate knowledge of truth."

The Society takes pains of late to avoid making any specific predictions of a date for the world's end, but as pointed out earlier, its true beliefs were accidentally revealed in the January 1, 1989 Watchtower, page 12:

The apostle Paul was spearheading the Christian missionary activity. He was also laying a foundation for a work that would be completed in our 20th century. [published edition]

Speak To Us With Smooth Words

This essay has made clear that the Watchtower Society does not hesitate to cover over its mistakes, even to the extent of misleading those of "the flock of God" in its care. The last two paragraphs of the Awake! series show why, and show why the Society's writers are not ashamed of misleading people as long as they point them in the general direction of God. In view of its history and commitment to continue making false predictions, can it be said of those Watchtower Society leaders claiming membership in the "anointed class" that "no falsehood was found in their mouths?" (Rev. 14:5) Can it not be said of those of Jehovah's Witnesses who are only too willing to accept this misdirection, that they want the Society to "speak to us smooth things; envision deceptive things?" (Isaiah 30:10) Can it not be said of such ones that, in the words of 2 Tim. 4:3, 4,

In accord with their own desires, they will accumulate teachers for themselves to have their ears tickled; and they will turn their ears away from the truth, whereas they will be turned aside to false stories.

In Part 2 of this essay George Orwell's concept of "doublethink" was described. Compare the intellectual dance Orwell described with the rationalization in the article "The Path of the Righteous Does Keep Getting Brighter" from the December 1, 1981 Watchtower, page 27, apparently written by Governing Body member Karl Klein. It is a marvelous example of intellectual sleight of hand:

At times explanations given by Jehovah's visible organization have shown adjustments, seemingly to previous points of view. But this has not actually been the case. This might be compared to what is known in navigational circles as "tacking." By maneuvering the sails the sailors can cause a ship to go from right to left, back and forth, but all the time making progress toward their destination in spite of contrary winds.

Has not the Watchtower ship often been sailing in circles? Such as the complete circle made with regard to understanding the "superior authorities"? And the understanding of who should be called an ordained minister? And whether the inhabitants of Sodom and Gomorrah would be resurrected? How can it be said these doctrinal changes have not been to a "previous point of view"? Easy -- doublethink.

In the illustration the sailors make the ship tack. Who makes the Society's "ship" tack? Is this illustration not an exercise in cynical sophistry? As such, do not the purveyors of it fit the description of Proverbs 3:32: "For the devious person is a detestable thing to Jehovah, but His intimacy is with the upright ones"? And is one not reminded of the Apostle Paul's description at Ephesians 4:14: "We should no longer be babes, tossed about as by waves and carried hither and thither by every wind of teaching by means of the trickery of men, by means of cunning in contriving error"?

The May 15, 1976 Watchtower, although referring to other religions, well described such tacking in circles, on page 298:

It is a serious matter to represent God and Christ in one way, then find that our understanding of the major teachings and fundamental doctrines of the Scriptures was in error, and then after that, to go back to the very doctrines that, by years of study, we had thoroughly determined to be in error. Christians cannot be vacillating -- 'wishy washy' -- about such fundamental teachings. What confidence can one put in the sincerity or judgment of such persons?

Conclusion

"To be mistaken is a misfortune to be pitied; but to know the truth and not to conform one's actions to it is a crime which Heaven and Earth condemn." -- Giuseppe Mazzini, The Duties of Man and Other Essays

"What ever games are played with us, we must play no games with ourselves, but deal in our privacy with the last honesty and truth." -- Emerson

"One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived." -- Machiavelli

The March 22, 1993 Awake! is a textbook example of doublethink. The rationalization process the Society and its followers use to sweep under the rug the false predictions and about-faces of doctrine are clearly evident. Already the false predictions for 1975 have nearly disappeared from the collective consciousness of Jehovah's Witnesses. The failed prophecies of preceding decades are all but forgotten.

George Orwell perfectly described this process:

The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth. [Part 1, Ch. VII; p. 75 hardcover; p. 64 paperback]

Since the Party is in full control of all recorded, and in equally full control of the minds of its members, it follows that the past is whatever the Party chooses to make it. [Part 2, Ch. IX; p. 215 hardcover; p. 176 paperback]

The Bible says that Jehovah is a God of truth. A passage from James Moffatt's translation of Job 13:7-11 summarizes it best:

Will you bring unfair arguments for God? Will you tell lies on his behalf? Will you be sycophants of the Almighty? Will you be special pleaders for God? Will it be well when he probes you? Can you deceive him like a man? No, he will punish you, if you are sycophants of his in secret. Should not his majesty cause you to shudder? Should not the dread of him seize you?

Footnotes

1 Several groups dispute that Jehovah's Witnesses are the spiritual successors of Russell, such as the Dawn Bible Students and the Laymen's Home Missionary Movement. These groups still adhere to most of Russell's teachings and continue to republish his works, whereas the Watchtower Society has all but abandoned Russell's works and most of his teachings.

2 Russell did not originate these predictions, but adopted them from the Second Adventist Nelson H. Barbour when he accepted all of Barbour's chronological theories early in 1876. Barbour later abandoned these chronological speculations, while Russell retained them. The various sects that split off from Russell's original organization still retain the basics of this chronology, although differing in detail.

3 At one point Franz decided this should be 1974, but after one article was published the point was not raised publicly again.

4 See 1980 Yearbook, pp. 30-1; The Watchtower, March 15, 1980, p. 17.

5 Remember "Big Brother is watching you?"

6 May 29, 1980, in address to elders of Bethel family.

7 See, for example, the explanation given for the change from 606 B.C. to 607 B.C. for the fall of Jerusalem, on page 171 of the 1944 book The Kingdom Is At Hand and page 239 of the 1943 book The Truth Shall Make You Free.

8 Parousia primarily means "presence" (literally, "a being alongside") or "appearing," but it is well established today that at the time of Jesus it was also used in a technical sense. Nearly all Bible translators use "coming," "advent," "arrival" or similar terms, despite the fact the primary meaning is "presence." Most early Greek-Latin translators, for whom both languages were living, used the Latin adventus ("advent" or "coming"). Translators for other languages used similar terms. The reason is well expressed by the 19th century scholar Adolf Deissmann, who was instrumental in collating the 19th century discoveries of ancient Greek manuscripts that showed the New Testament was written in koine or common Greek:

"Yet another of the central ideas of the oldest Christian worship receives light from the new texts, viz. parousia [parousia], 'advent, coming,' a word expressive of the most ardent hopes of a St. Paul. We now may say that the best interpretation of the Primitive Christian hope of the Parousia is the old Advent text, 'Behold, thy King cometh unto thee.' [Matthew 21:5] From the Ptolemaic period down into the 2nd cent. A.D. we are able to trace the word in the East as a technical expression for the arrival or the visit of the king or the emperor." [Light from the Ancient East, Baker Book House, 1978, p. 368]

The point is that the technical sense embodies both an arrival and a subsequent presence, with emphasis on "arrival." The arrival of Christ in Kingdom power will certainly be the "arrival or the visit of the king," and the general consensus among modern scholars is that the New Testament uses parousia in this way with reference to the second coming of Christ, as any modern Greek lexicon will show.

The context of Matt. 24 indicates that the disciples asked for a sign of Jesus' visible coming, not of an invisible presence. The Sept. 15, 1964 Watchtower, p. 576, said the disciples "had no idea that he would rule as a glorious spirit from the heavens and therefore did not know that his second presence would be invisible." Therefore they were asking about a visible appearance. Furthermore, if the appearance was visible, then they were not asking for a sign that the appearance had already taken place, for the appearance itself would be sign enough, but that it was about to take place. This is consistent with Jesus' illustration of the fig tree in Matt. 24:32, 33: "Just as soon as its young branch grows tender and it puts forth leaves, you know that summer is near [or, "about to arrive" -- not "is invisibly present"]. Likewise also you, when you see all these things, know that he is near at the doors."

It is clear the Society has no biblical textual basis for claiming Jesus has been in Kingdom power since 1914, as his parousia has not yet occurred.

9 C. T. Russell's second book was entitled The Time Is At Hand. Apparently he took the title from the rendering of Luke 21:8 by the Revised Standard Version or the American Standard Version.

10 Reasoning from the Scriptures, 1985, p. 236; Life -- How Did It Get Here? By Evolution Or By Creation?, 1985, p. 225; Awake!, Oct. 22, 1984, p. 6.

11 The article also said: "Conversely, others conclude that our generation has experienced earthquakes more frequently than did previous ones. Based on available records, the 20th century does significantly overshadow the past in seismic activity. Publications of the Watch Tower Society have repeatedly called attention to this, highlighting the Biblical significance of earthquakes occurring since 1914."

No references or data were offered to back up these claims. A request made to the Watchtower Society for this information was never answered. See the rest of our discussion for more information.

12 "The earth and its dynamic forces have more or less remained the same throughout the ages." -- p. 6.

13 Source -- Database from the National Earthquake Information Service, Denver, Colorado. This CDROM database contains a listing of some 438,000 earthquakes from 2100 B.C. through 1988.

14 The NEIS data seem to bear this out.

15 Some may object, "But the New World Translation says 'at the end of these days,' not 'these last days.'" A check of many other translations, as well as the original Greek, shows the expression "these last days" to be correct, and only one of many possible renderings. The Kingdom Interlinear shows the expression used at Heb. 1:2 is almost identical with that at 2 Tim. 3:1.

16 The Society's new history book says on page 134 that Brown "did, however, connect these 'seven times' with the Gentile Times of Luke 21:24." It gives the impression that Brown equated the periods, but he was very clear that they were not the same. In The Even-Tide Brown said of the Gentile times:

The times of the Gentiles then are the duration of the Mohammedan power; and when the period of that tyranny is accomplished, Jerusalem will be no longer trodden down of the Gentiles. [Vol. 1, p. 35]

"Jerusalem should be trodden down of the Gentiles, till the times of the Gentiles be fulfilled;" and their times are defined to be 1260 years, or "forty and two months." [Vol. 1, p. 105]

The first proposition maintained, and which may be denominated, The duration of the mystery and bondage of the holy people, is that -- From the Hegira, May 622, to the finishing of the mystery, and the expulsion of the Turks from the Holy Land, who, succeeding the Saracens in their possession of that territory, continue still to scatter the power of the holy people, are to be reckoned twelve hundred and sixty Mohameddan years, or 1222 solar years, which end April, 1844. [Vol. 1, p. 60]

Concerning Nebuchadnezzar's seven times, Brown said:

They are "seven times," and, therefore, are to be taken in the same symbolical sense as other prophetical periods, and as the "time, times, and a half;" and, if this opinion be correct, then must the history of Nebuchadnezzar be taken in its typical import. The "seven times" would, therefore, be considered as a grand week of years, forming a period of two thousand five hundred and twenty years, and embracing the duration of the four tyrannical monarchies.... Commencing, therefore, the calculation of the "seven times," from the first year of Nebuchadnezzar, A.C. 604,... the termination of these 2520 years will fall out in the year 1917. [Vol. 2, p. 135]

From the rise of the four monarchies, commencing 604 A.C., to their final dissolution, there will be a grand week of years, or 2520 years, and will terminate, January 1, 1917. [Vol. 2, p. 152]

Brown might be said to have "connected" the two time periods in the sense that the termini of the two significant periods (the 1260 year period ending in 1844, and the 2520 year period ending in 1917) were the boundaries of a 75 lunar year period during which all the signs predicted by Jesus would occur:

As the mysterious times of Daniel pass away at the end of 1260 years, and Mohammedism is to be taken away at the end of the thirty succeeding years, and as the reign of blessedness commences at the end of the next period of forty-five years; that the "great day of the Lord" is bounded on the one side by the 1260 days, and on the other by the termination of the elongated period, most probably of the thirty years, but in its utmost latitude, of seventy-five years; the interval must, therefore, be "the great day of the Lord," and the session of the first and second judgment. [Vol. 2, pp. 68-9]

The reservation of the earth to be burned up by fire, and the dissolution of the heavens, as asserted by Peter, can mean no more than do the same terms employed by Isaiah, Joel, and other prophets, which predicted the dissolution of the political heavens and earth of the empires which were to exist at the times to which the prophecies related; and are, doubtless, the signs as declared by our Lord which shall precede his coming, "when he shall appear with flaming fire to take vengeance on them that know not God, and believe not the gospel of the Lord Jesus." But these take place when "the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled." The kingdom of Christ, and the dominion of the saints, are to succeed the tyrannical monarchies of the world. [Vol. 2, p. 206]

The times of these monarchies are fixed by the "seven times" of the symbolic image, and by the 1335 years of the Mohammedan Imposture.... then must it be maintained that the forty-five years of Daniel are the period of the second judgment; and commencing in 1873, are attended by the sitting of that judgment, and by the general resurrection, the last hour of which terminates with the "seven times" of the monarchies, and with the 1335 Mohammedan years, in 1917.... The Saviour himself, speaking of the signs of his second coming, foretels all these events; and upon that memorable occasion, when he predicted the treading down of Jerusalem, and "that the Jews should be led captive into all nations, during the times of the Gentiles, obviously refers to the sitting of the second judgment, at which he is to appear as the Judge. [Vol. 2, p. 208]

It is unclear whether the impression JWPGK gives (that Brown equated the two time periods) is accidental or deliberate. Either way, the impression is quite wrong.

(For a more thorough examination of these issues, see The Sign of the Last Days -- When? by Carl Olof Jonsson and Wolfgang Herbst.)

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